Japan in Their Own Words (JITOW)/日本からの意見

Time of Reckoning for the Star of Theatrical Politics
HARA Yasushi  / Former Professor at Toyo University

October 20, 2003
On September 22, Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro formed his second reshuffled coalition Cabinet upon re-election to the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership. Having transformed Japanese politics from one that traditionally revolved around tacit understandings to one characterized by 'theatrical' performance over the past two years, Koizumi now stands at a crucial junction that will determine whether he will ultimately make his exit as a clown who could only dance on the political stage waving his flag of structural reform or win applause both at home and abroad as a reformer who brought change to Japan's political and economic system. The First Koizumi Cabinet, while radical in many ways, left little in terms of substance during the two years of its existence.

The Prime Minister intends to stick to his slogan of "no economic recovery without structural reform," but no visible progress was made with respect to reform under his first Cabinet. Worse, he proved totally incompetent in managing the economy and ended up delaying its recovery. Over the past two years the Japanese economy saw deflation deepen, the unemployment rate rise to a record high 5.5% and disposable income per head fall, while the banks have remained under the burden of nearly 40 trillion yen in bad loans. This is because Koizumi, rather than taking strategic steps towards structural reform, was preoccupied with debating ideology and dodging real issues. Despite his position as LDP president, he behaved as though he wasn't even a party member, making provocative remarks and labeling anti-Koizumi factions within the party as "forces resisting change." And despite the trouble he went through to get his civilian appointees to submit recommendations for reform, once time came to actually implementing them he backed down, blaming it on the "forces of resistance." While vociferously claiming he will go through with privatization of the postal system and dissolution of the Japan Highway Public Corporation as symbols of his reform policy, such reforms bear no relevance to Japan's escape from deflation which is a much more pressing need of global significance.

Another characteristic of Koizumi's 'theatrical' administration was that it managed to substitute the loss of confidence as an economic power that had spread among the Japanese people over more than a decade of stagnation with a growing sense of nationalism. In his response during parliamentary sessions, Koizumi put on a courageous show by using terms traditionally avoided as taboo, as in such remarks as "For all practical purposes, the Self Defense Forces should be considered a military entity," "I won't opt for a slave's peace. War can only be avoided through unwavering determination" and "If we are to recognize our right to collective defense, then we should revise our Constitution."

Prompted by a high-ranking American official to "show the flag," Koizumi did in fact dispatch the Maritime Defense Forces during the Iraq War, and now under his second government intends to send the Self Defense Forces to Iraq where post-war turmoil continues. How much appreciation the Bush Administration will show for such military assistance will no doubt become evident in the course of future Japan-U.S. relations regarding currency and trade.

Meanwhile, Koizumi's success in his groundbreaking summit meeting with North Korea's General Secretary Kim Jong-il in Pyongyang was subsequently marred by his politicizing of the abduction issue which reduced painstaking diplomatic efforts to nothing and caused a deterioration in mutual feelings among the Japanese and North Korean peoples. Although North Korean attitudes towards Japan are to be blamed for complicating the abduction issue, it was also the negative consequence of shortsighted political thinking. Instead of handling the matter as an intrinsically humanitarian issue, abduction victims were treated as hostages to be exchanged for normalization of diplomatic relations and prevention of North Korean nuclear development in a deal consummately political in nature. Koizumi also rubbed the national sentiments of Asian neighbors the wrong way with his self-serving insistence on paying respect to Japan's war dead at Yasukuni Shrine. Japan also failed to seize the initiative as an economic superpower at the Cancun ministerial meetings in the new round of World Trade Organization negotiations that presented a golden opportunity for establishing smooth relationships with developing nations over trade issues.

Apart from providing military assistance to the United States, Prime Minister Koizumi has thus accomplished very little in terms of foreign relations, yet again due to the apparent demerits of his theatrical style of politics.

In the latest drama over Koizumi's reelection to the LDP presidency, he impressed the gallery by appointing Abe Shinzo, a 49 year-old Member of Parliament who has only been elected three times, to the post of Cabinet Secretary. Dubbed the "Prince" of Japanese politics, Abe's grandfather was ex-war criminal and Prime Minister Kishi Shinsuke and father ex-foreign minister Abe Shintaro. Having gained nationwide popularity second only to Koizumi himself for his handling of the abduction issue as Cabinet Undersecretary in the First Koizumi Cabinet, Abe was chosen to represent the LDP campaign in the general elections expected to take place in November.

This choice in personnel is reminiscent the appointment of Tanaka Makiko, the daughter of tremendously popular ex-Prime Minister Tanaka Kakuei who was herself enjoying great national popularity, to the post of Foreign Minister during the first Koizumi administration. However, under the pretext of returning the reigns of diplomacy to the people, Foreign Minister Tanaka abused her authority over bureaucratic appointments and took the bite out of Japan's diplomatic capabilities. This excess of populism incapacitated Japanese diplomacy, consequently damaging national interests. This scene in the theater of politics - typical of an immature democracy - played out as an orchestrated draw in which Tanaka retreated from politics, though Koizumi himself never took responsibility for appointing her in the first place. Abe has likewise obtained the approval of the Japanese people by seeking to resolve the abduction issue by means of circumventing the Foreign Ministry.

Turning our attention overseas, we find that Koizumi is not alone in tackling structural reform to break out of economic stagnation. In Germany, Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder is leading his own structural reform effort under his "Agenda 2010" plan. Accordingly, unemployment insurance will be reduced in amount, health insurance and pension plans will undergo reform, business hours at retail outlets will be deregulated to revitalize consumption and tax cuts originally scheduled for next year will be brought forward. France is also pushing forward with the privatization of state-run enterprises and reductions in pension payments, while President Jacques Chirac has promised to continue tax cuts into the next year. Against this backdrop, both Germany and France are confronted with fierce opposition against reforms in the health insurance and pension systems from labor unions and other parties that have been staging frequent street demonstrations and strikes. It is they who constitute the genuine "forces of resistance."

In contrast, under the Koizumi Administration the taxpayers' portion of medical fees have gone up and pension benefits have been chipped away in the absence of angry protests, attributable in part to a characteristic restraint exercised by the Japanese. And this has enabled Koizumi to win accolades without embarking on fundamental reform, as long as he made a show of battling the "forces of resistance" within his own party.

History may credit Prime Minister Koizumi with demolishing the factional dynamics of Japanese politics, and of the LDP in particular. As a member of a minor party faction, to maintain his government Koizumi must continue to rely on the support not only of the Nagata-cho political district but of regional party members, and on his high popularity rating that may have fallen from the peak of 87% but nevertheless remain strong at 58%. Koizumi now faces the hurdle of general elections in November. The election would be the first test of his theater-style politics.

Then again, the Japanese people appear as though they still have their hopes pinned on the Prime Minister. And the Japanese economy may finally be entering a phase where it will be able to rise out of deflation unassisted by politics. In the eyes of the leaders of other economically advanced nations, Koizumi has certainly secured an envious position as the leading star of theatrical politics.

The writer is former professor of media communication at Toyo University. He is a former Asahi Shimbun journalist.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan




真価問われる劇場型政治の花形
原 康 / 元東洋大学教授

2003年 10月 20日
小泉首相が自民党総裁に再選され、二十二日、小泉連立第二次改造内閣が発足した。過去2年間、伝統的に「あ・うん」の呼吸を重視してきた日本の政治を「劇場型」政治に変えてしまった小泉首相は、構造改革を掲げて政治の舞台で踊るだけのピエロに終わるか、日本の政治経済の改革者として内外の喝采を浴びるかどうか、これからが正念場である。小泉第一次政権はあまりにも過激だが、実質の薄い2年間だったからである。

小泉首相は「構造改革なくして景気回復なし」のスローガンをこれからも堅持していく姿勢だが、第一次政権下では、目に見えるような改革は進まなかった。それどころか、経済運営では全くの無策に過ぎ、日本経済の回復を遅らせてしまった。過去2年間、日本経済のデフレは深まり、失業率は5.5%と記録的な高さとなり、国民一人あたりの可処分所得が減る一方で、銀行などの不良債権はまだ四十兆円近く残っている。これは小泉首相が構造改革を戦略的に進めるよりも、イデオロギー的論争に力点を置き、問題をすり替えるのに終始してきたからである。小泉首相自身は自民党総裁でありながら、まるで自民党員ではないような挑発的な発言で、党内の反小泉勢力を「抵抗勢力」と決めつけた。折角、民間人を起用して改革案を示させてもそれを実行する段階になると「抵抗勢力」のせいにして、投げ出してしまう。首相は改革路線のシンボルとして郵政事業の民営化や、日本道路公団の解体などを仕上げると、声高に叫んでいるが、この改革は国際的にも緊急を要する日本のデフレ脱却には何ら関係がない。

劇場型小泉政権のもう一つの特色は、十年以上を超す景気低迷で、国民の間に広がった経済大国としての自信喪失を、ナショナリズムの高まりにすり替えた事である。国会における答弁を見ても「実質的に自衛隊は軍隊であろうと(思う)」「私は奴隷の平和は選ばない。断固たる決意を持ってこそ戦争は防げる」「集団的自衛権を認めるなら、憲法は改正した方がいい」などとこれまで禁句とされてきた発言が勇ましく飛び出した。

実際、首相は米高官から「ショー・ザ・フラッグ」といわれ、イラク戦争に海上自衛隊を派遣し、今度は第二次政権下で戦後混乱の続くイラクに自衛隊を派遣することにしている。軍事的な対米協力をブッシュ政権がどれだけ評価しているかは、これからの日米通貨、通商関係に鮮明になってくるだろう。

平壌で北朝鮮の金正日党書記との画期的な首脳会談を成功させたが、拉致問題の取り扱いを政治化させ、せっかくの外交努力も水の泡、逆に日本・北朝鮮双方の国民感情を悪化させてしまった。拉致問題がこじれたのは、北朝鮮側の対日態度に問題があるとはいえ、本来、人道上の問題として取り扱うべきところを、帰国した拉致被害者を北朝鮮との国交回復、北朝鮮の核開発防止という極めて高度な政治取引の人質に使うという、浅はかな政治家的発想が災いしたものである。また独りよがりの靖国神社参拝でアジアの近隣諸国の国民感情を逆撫でした。経済大国として、通商問題で開発途上国との円滑な関係を確立する絶好のチャンスだった国際貿易機関(WTO)新ラウンドのカンクン閣僚会議でも日本は主導権をとれなかった。

このように、小泉首相が、対米軍事協力以外に対外関係でも見るべき成果を上げていないのは、これまた劇場型政治の弊害が表面化しているからである。

今回の小泉総裁再選劇の中で、四十九歳でまだ国会議員には三回しか当選したことのない安倍晋三氏を官房長官に抜擢して、大向うを唸らせた。安倍氏の祖父は、元戦犯の岸信介元首相、父は安倍晋太郎元外相という政界のプリンスで、第一次小泉内閣では官房副長官として拉致問題と取り組み、小泉氏に次ぐ国民的な人気を集めているので、十一月に予想される総選挙に向けて、党の顔として抜擢された。

この人事は、小泉第一次政権当時、国民の圧倒的な人気を博した田中角栄氏を父に持ち、同じく国民的人気の高かった田中真紀子氏を外務大臣に起用したのによく似ている。しかし、田中真紀子外相は外交を国民の手に戻すという大義名分を振りかざし、外務官僚に対する人事権を乱用して日本の外交能力の手足を剥奪してしまった。ポピュリズムの行き過ぎが、日本外交の無力化を招き国益を損なった。未熟な民主主義ならではのこの劇場政治の一幕も、けんか両成敗、田中氏は政界を去ったが、小泉首相は田中起用の責任はとらなかった。安倍氏も拉致問題を外務省を飛び越えた手法で進めることで、国民的人気を得ているといっても良い。

目を海外に向ければ、経済の停滞を打破しようと、構造改革に取り組んでいるのは小泉首相だけではない。シュレーダー独首相は「アジェンダ2010」という構造改革を進めている。失業保険給付金の減額や、健康保険・年金の改革や消費を活性化する店舗の営業時間制限緩和をはかり、来年に予定される減税を前倒しで実施する。フランスも国有企業の民営化、年金給付金の削減を進め、シラク大統領は来年も減税を続けると約束している。こうした中で独仏両国とも健保や年金改革に対する労組などの抵抗は激しく、デモやストが続発している。実はこれが本当の「抵抗勢力」である。

これに比べ、日本では、小泉政権下で医療費負担が値上がりし、年金給与も削られたが、日本人の国民性もあって誰も怒らない。だから小泉首相は根本的な改革には手を染めず、ただ自分の党である自民党内の「抵抗勢力」に立ち向かって苦労しているように見せれば喝采を浴びることができた。

小泉首相は日本の政治、とくに自民党の派閥力学を切り崩したという歴史的な評価は残るかもしれない。小派閥出身の小泉氏が政権を維持していくためには、永田町だけではなく、地方党員の支持や、最高時87%から下がったとはいえ、いまだに58%という高い世論調査の支持率に依存せざるを得ないことは間違いない。小泉首相には十一月総選挙というハードルが待っている。この選挙は劇場型政治に対する初の審判である。

しかし、日本国民はまだ、小泉首相に夢を託しているかのようである。日本経済もようやく政治を当てにせず、自力でデフレからはい上がる局面を迎えるかも知れない。ほかの先進諸国指導者から見れば、小泉首相はまさにうらやましい劇場型政治の花形である。

(筆者は元東洋大学社会学部教授。元朝日新聞記者。)
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟


English Speaking Union of Japan > Japan in Their Own Words (JITOW) > Time of Reckoning for the Star of Theatrical Politics