The Koizumi Administration - National Elections and Beyond
SHIMA Osamu / Former chief editorial writer of Yomiuri Shimbun
October 23, 2003
Approval ratings for the administration of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi jumped 10% immediately following his re-election as president of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). General elections are close at hand and elections for the Upper House will take place next summer. The strong showing at the polls must have been encouraging indeed for those legislators and party members who voted for Koizumi in the hope of campaigning under a Prime Minister immensely popular with voters.
Once these elections are safely out of the way, there will be no central or nationwide local elections for the next three years. This will provide Koizumi with a political environment in which to concentrate on his agenda and decisively implement his policies, free from the vociferous demands of lobbyists eyeing elections.
However, the real test will be the momentum and stability of the Koizumi Administration in the immediate aftermath of the Upper House elections next summer. Koizumi's landslide victory in the election for LDP leadership was due in no small part to those who cast their votes passively, thinking "I don't approve of the Koizumi Cabinet's policies but the upcoming elections give me no other choice." Advocates for a switch to policies that stress economic recovery have also remained strong. The new LDP leadership should aim to secure the support of such people to create a united front, and upon that foundation endeavor to maintain and improve the Cabinet's approval rating. The state of party politics ten months from now could well prove the key factor in the future course of national politics.
Policy and personnel are said to comprise the critical elements of politics. Prime Minister Koizumi demonstrates uncanny talents when it comes to appointments, and has admitted he'd always preferred dealing with "political turning-points" rather than "policies." In power struggles involving a tug-of-war over personnel, he takes pride in coming up with unexpected, inspired choices that take opponents by surprise. His latest appointees - as exemplified by his choice of Abe Shinzo as LDP Secretary General, the amazement with which they were received and the resultant rise in his approval rating, constitute a typical example.
But such power struggles are not without risks. Above all, repeated political meandering over who wins or loses is a hindrance to harmony within the party. While amusing to outside observers, neglecting legislative debate which lies at the foundation of multi-party politics is no way to fulfill political responsibility. I hope the Prime Minister and his entourage, in pursuing the course of structural reform, will exercise political consideration from a broader vantage point.
In his general policy speech to parliament, the Prime Minister emphasized his accomplishments over the past two and a half years, saying "buds of reform have sprung up to revive Japan." He added he would complete a privatization plan for the postal services - a pillar of his reforms - by autumn next year and present a reform bill before parliament in 2005. And with regard to the four public road corporations, he promised to conclude concrete plans within the year and begin the process of privatization from fiscal 2005.
Prime Minister Koizumi has thus promised to implement his plans during his term, but Mikio Aoki, secretary general of the LDP's Upper House caucus, has publicly proclaimed he would crush any privatization bill once it gets to his House. Whether Koizumi has any chance of success remains to be seen.
The writer is former chief editorial writer of Yomiuri Shimbun.
Once these elections are safely out of the way, there will be no central or nationwide local elections for the next three years. This will provide Koizumi with a political environment in which to concentrate on his agenda and decisively implement his policies, free from the vociferous demands of lobbyists eyeing elections.
However, the real test will be the momentum and stability of the Koizumi Administration in the immediate aftermath of the Upper House elections next summer. Koizumi's landslide victory in the election for LDP leadership was due in no small part to those who cast their votes passively, thinking "I don't approve of the Koizumi Cabinet's policies but the upcoming elections give me no other choice." Advocates for a switch to policies that stress economic recovery have also remained strong. The new LDP leadership should aim to secure the support of such people to create a united front, and upon that foundation endeavor to maintain and improve the Cabinet's approval rating. The state of party politics ten months from now could well prove the key factor in the future course of national politics.
Policy and personnel are said to comprise the critical elements of politics. Prime Minister Koizumi demonstrates uncanny talents when it comes to appointments, and has admitted he'd always preferred dealing with "political turning-points" rather than "policies." In power struggles involving a tug-of-war over personnel, he takes pride in coming up with unexpected, inspired choices that take opponents by surprise. His latest appointees - as exemplified by his choice of Abe Shinzo as LDP Secretary General, the amazement with which they were received and the resultant rise in his approval rating, constitute a typical example.
But such power struggles are not without risks. Above all, repeated political meandering over who wins or loses is a hindrance to harmony within the party. While amusing to outside observers, neglecting legislative debate which lies at the foundation of multi-party politics is no way to fulfill political responsibility. I hope the Prime Minister and his entourage, in pursuing the course of structural reform, will exercise political consideration from a broader vantage point.
In his general policy speech to parliament, the Prime Minister emphasized his accomplishments over the past two and a half years, saying "buds of reform have sprung up to revive Japan." He added he would complete a privatization plan for the postal services - a pillar of his reforms - by autumn next year and present a reform bill before parliament in 2005. And with regard to the four public road corporations, he promised to conclude concrete plans within the year and begin the process of privatization from fiscal 2005.
Prime Minister Koizumi has thus promised to implement his plans during his term, but Mikio Aoki, secretary general of the LDP's Upper House caucus, has publicly proclaimed he would crush any privatization bill once it gets to his House. Whether Koizumi has any chance of success remains to be seen.
The writer is former chief editorial writer of Yomiuri Shimbun.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
国政選挙とその後の小泉政権
島 脩 / 元読売新聞論説委員長
2003年 10月 23日
自民党総裁選直後の世論調査で、小泉内閣の支持率が軒並み10％も急上昇した。総選挙を間じかに控え、来年夏には参院選挙が行われる。国民に人気の高い首相の下で選挙を勝ちぬきたいという思いで小泉首相に投票した国会議員や党員には心強い数字だろう。
この二つの選挙を無難に乗り切れば、その後三年間は国政選挙も統一地方選挙もない。小泉首相にとっては、選挙を意識した利益代弁者たちの声高な要求に悩まされることもなく、じっくりと諸懸案と取り組み、果断に政策を実行していく政治環境が整うことになる。
が、問題は来夏の参院選挙が終わった時点での小泉政権の勢いと安定度だ。総裁選では「内閣の政策は支持できないが、国政選挙を考えれば小泉支持以外にない」と消極的な一票を投じた人が少なからずいてそれが小泉圧勝につながった。景気重視の経済政策への転換を求める声もいぜん強い。新執行部が目指すべきは、それらの人々をがっちり取り込んだ挙党態勢の構築とその基盤の上で内閣支持率の維持向上に努めることだろう。十ヵ月後の党内情勢いかんが国政の動向を左右するキーポイントになる可能性をはらんでいるように思う。
政治の要諦は、政策と人事といわれる。小泉首相は、こと人事に関しては、非凡な才能の持ち主であり、首相自身「私は本来、政策より政局の方が好きなんだ」と語っている。だから権力闘争がらみの人事の綱引きになると、相手の意表をつく驚くようなひらめきぶりを発揮して得意がる。「安倍幹事長」に代表される今回の人事とそれにたいする周囲の驚き、国民の内閣支持率のアップは、まさにその典型といえる。
だが、こうした形の権力争いは、一方で危うさもつきまとう。何よりも勝った、負けたの政局論議の繰り返しは、党内融和の妨げになる。はたから見ていて面白くても、政党政治の基本である法案審議がそっちのけでは、政治責任をはたせるはずがない。構造改革路線の推進に邁進する小泉首相とその周辺には、大所高所からの政治的配慮を求めたい。
小泉首相は、国会の所信表明演説で「日本再生に向けた改革の芽が出てきた」と二年半の成果を強調した。その上で小泉改革の柱である郵政事業民営化については来年秋頃までに民営化案をまとめ、05年に改革法案を提出する。道路４公団については年内に具体案をまとめ、05年度から民営化する、と言明した。
小泉首相は在任中にこの公約を実行することになるが、総裁選で小泉支持に回った参院自民党の実力者青木幹事長は「民営化法案は参院でつぶす」公言している。首相に果たして成算はあるのだろうか。
（筆者は元読売新聞論説委員長。）
この二つの選挙を無難に乗り切れば、その後三年間は国政選挙も統一地方選挙もない。小泉首相にとっては、選挙を意識した利益代弁者たちの声高な要求に悩まされることもなく、じっくりと諸懸案と取り組み、果断に政策を実行していく政治環境が整うことになる。
が、問題は来夏の参院選挙が終わった時点での小泉政権の勢いと安定度だ。総裁選では「内閣の政策は支持できないが、国政選挙を考えれば小泉支持以外にない」と消極的な一票を投じた人が少なからずいてそれが小泉圧勝につながった。景気重視の経済政策への転換を求める声もいぜん強い。新執行部が目指すべきは、それらの人々をがっちり取り込んだ挙党態勢の構築とその基盤の上で内閣支持率の維持向上に努めることだろう。十ヵ月後の党内情勢いかんが国政の動向を左右するキーポイントになる可能性をはらんでいるように思う。
政治の要諦は、政策と人事といわれる。小泉首相は、こと人事に関しては、非凡な才能の持ち主であり、首相自身「私は本来、政策より政局の方が好きなんだ」と語っている。だから権力闘争がらみの人事の綱引きになると、相手の意表をつく驚くようなひらめきぶりを発揮して得意がる。「安倍幹事長」に代表される今回の人事とそれにたいする周囲の驚き、国民の内閣支持率のアップは、まさにその典型といえる。
だが、こうした形の権力争いは、一方で危うさもつきまとう。何よりも勝った、負けたの政局論議の繰り返しは、党内融和の妨げになる。はたから見ていて面白くても、政党政治の基本である法案審議がそっちのけでは、政治責任をはたせるはずがない。構造改革路線の推進に邁進する小泉首相とその周辺には、大所高所からの政治的配慮を求めたい。
小泉首相は、国会の所信表明演説で「日本再生に向けた改革の芽が出てきた」と二年半の成果を強調した。その上で小泉改革の柱である郵政事業民営化については来年秋頃までに民営化案をまとめ、05年に改革法案を提出する。道路４公団については年内に具体案をまとめ、05年度から民営化する、と言明した。
小泉首相は在任中にこの公約を実行することになるが、総裁選で小泉支持に回った参院自民党の実力者青木幹事長は「民営化法案は参院でつぶす」公言している。首相に果たして成算はあるのだろうか。
（筆者は元読売新聞論説委員長。）
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟