Japan in Their Own Words (JITOW)/日本からの意見

Taking a Sober Approach to the Arab Quest for Democracy
UENO Kagefumi  / Professor (non-tenured), Kyorin University

June 1, 2012
There seem to be endless reports of tragic violence in Syria, which has practically plunged into civil war, or Iraq, which is on the road to democracy. Frictions between the Sunni and Shia Muslim factions are beginning to creep into these conflicts, not only in Iraq, but also in Syria, where the government of President Bashar al-Assad is supported by the Shiite Alawite sect.
In Syria and in Egypt - the main stage of the "Arab Spring" movement, Christians continue to flee abroad from persecution by Islamic hard-liners and the situation is becoming increasingly chaotic.

It is highly disturbing that whereas autocratic rule has come to an end in Arab countries, religious dissent has reared its ugly head. Our eyes have been dazzled by the brighter aspects of an unfolding popular revolution, while the darker aspects have generally been ignored. We should follow the events of the post-autocracy period with a more sober eye.

Recent developments in the Arab world are reminiscent of events in the Balkans after the collapse of former Yugoslavia. The end of Tito's autocratic rule created a political vacuum that led to an eruption of religious and sectarian antagonism that had long been repressed and culminated in a bloody conflict. The memory is still fresh in our minds.

Generally speaking, in a country saddled with religious conflict, the early stages of post-autocracy democratization may give rise to a great number of victims once that fuse is set. This is the dilemma, or the paradox, that we face.

However, this dilemma is hardly recognized by the international community, notably by western societies. They cannot imagine the dark side overwhelming the bright side, or popular revolution losing its just cause as the number of victims grows too large. They cannot see that it may be wiser to delay the downfall of the autocratic government to limit the number of victims.

In Syria's case, the oppressive Assad government should by all means be condemned. Yet, we should pay more attention to the possibility that the collapse of autocracy and the subsequent political vacuum may lead to an escalation of religious conflict and generate victims many times more numerous than in the past.

In western societies, "democracy" is not only a principle, but often takes on religious connotations as an absolute justice. This makes “democratization” a process that must be pursued at all costs, regardless of the sacrifice it entails.

But we must deal squarely with the issue of to what extent sacrifice is morally justifiable, no matter how just the cause should be. In the case of Iraq, the conflict has resulted in 200,000 victims and 1.5 million refugees, and terrorist acts between opposing religious factions continue to this day. Is the hasty overthrow of an autocratic government – moreover meddled by an outsider – morally justifiable?

Incidentally, the Japanese are generally receptive to the "dilemma theory." In Japan, while democracy is a major principle, it is not quite a "religion" in itself. This enables us to take an approach that is detached and unbiased by ideology. We can see that if the move is expected to give rise to a great number of victims, we should wait until the time is ripe.

How the international community will deal with the period of post-autocracy that becomes increasingly chaotic, including the "Arab Spring"------this is an issue of paramount gravity. Accordingly, we should at least bear in mind the following two wisdoms.

One, we must squarely acknowledge the dilemma and paradox that the process of democratization may in fact invite more violence and division in a society.

Two, we must maintain a cool head when the expected cost – i.e. violence – of democratization is exorbitantly high, so that we can issue a warning: "Be patient in the pursuit for democratization and popular revolution," "wait until the conditions are right."

Japan should keep a cool head and stay clear of ideologies in seeking and fulfilling its unique role.

The writer is a civilizational essayist and former Ambassador to the Holy See. The article first appeared in the Mainichi Shimbun newspaper dated May 17, 2012.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan




「覚めた目」で民主化を捉えよ
上野 景文 / 杏林大学客員教授

2012年 6月 1日
「覚めた目」で民主化を捉えよ


上野 景文   杏林大学客員教授


 事実上の内戦に突入したシリア、民主化途上にあるイラクなどから、悲惨な暴力に関する報道が後を絶たない。イラクはもとより、シリアもアサド政権を支えるイスラム教アラウィ派(シーア派の一派)とスンニ派のイスラム宗派間対立が絡むようになってきている。

 シリアや「アラブの春」の本場エジプトでは、イスラム強硬派によるキリスト教徒への迫害、海外脱出が続き、情勢は混とんの度合いを増している。

 アラブ諸国で強権政治が終結する一方で、宗教対立が顕在化していることは極めて憂慮すべきだ。民衆革命という光の面に目を奪われるあまり負の面が総じて直視されていない。ポスト強権時代を「覚めた目」で見守るべきであろう。

 最近のアラブの実情は、旧ユーゴスラビア崩壊後のバルカンを想起させる。チトー強権政治の終結後に生まれた権力空白期に、それまで抑えつけられてきた宗教、宗派間の対立が顕在化し、凄惨(せいさん)な紛争に至ったことは記憶に新しい。

 一般化して言えば、ポスト強権時代、民主化の初期段階においては宗教間の対立を抱えた国では、その火種に火がつくと多大の犠牲者が出かねない、というジレンマ、パラドックスがある。

 ところが国際社会、特に西洋系社会では、このジレンマの発想が希薄だ。かれらは「負の面が光の面を凌駕するかもしれない」、「多大の犠牲者が出るような場合、民衆革命の大義が損なわれかねない」、あるいは「多くの犠牲者が出そうなので、強権政権打倒は遅らせた方がよい」といった発想に乏しい。

 シリアの場合、アサド政権による弾圧は糾弾されるべきだ。だが、政権を崩壊させると権力空白期に宗派間対立が激化し、これまでの何倍もの犠牲を生みかねないことへの注意が不足している。

 西洋系社会では「民主主義」は、単に大原則であるだけでなく、あたかも宗教のような絶対的正義となりがちだ。このため「民主化」は犠牲が出る、出ないにかかわらずコストを超越して、無条件に追求すべきものとなる。

 だが、民主化の「錦の御旗」がある場合でも、どこまでの犠牲であれば道徳的に許されるのか、という問題は正面から問われるべきだ。たとえばイラクでは20万人もの犠牲者、150万人もの難民を出し、宗派間テロが今日なお続いている。性急な強権政権の打倒??しかも、外からの介入によった??は、道徳的に正当化されるものなのか。

ちなみに日本人は総じて前述の「ジレンマ論」を抵抗感なしに受け入れることができる。というのは、民主主義は大原則ではあるがそれ自体が「宗教」ではないため、おびただしい犠牲が予見されるのであれば「機が熟すまで待つのが良い」という、よりクールで、イデオロギーに捉われない見方ができるためだ。

 国際社会が「アラブの春」を含め混とんの度合いを深めるポスト強権時代にどう向きあうかは重大なテーマだ。最低限、次の2点に十分留意してもらいたい。

 第一に「民主化プロセス」はかえって社会の暴力、分離化を招来する可能性があるというジレンマ、パラドックスを直視すること。

 第二に、民主化に要するコスト(暴力)が法外と予見できる場合には「民主化、民衆革命を急ぐな」、「好条件が整うまで待つ方がいい」と注意を促すだけの冷静さを持つこと。
 イデオロギーに捉われないクールな視点で、日本ならではの役割を探り、果たしていくべきであろう。

(筆者は文明論考家、前駐バチカン大使。本稿は2012年05月17日付毎日新聞に掲載された。)
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟


English Speaking Union of Japan > Japan in Their Own Words (JITOW) > Taking a Sober Approach to the Arab Quest for Democracy