Japan in Their Own Words (JITOW)/日本からの意見

How Japan Could Respond to the North Korean Threat
HANABUSA Masamichi / Former Ambassador to Italy
NUMATA Sadaaki / Former Ambassador to Canada / 

September 28, 2017
It is patently clear that, should the world’s leading nations including the US, China and Russia fail to agree to make North Korea abandon its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, there would emerge a grave threat to international peace and security. In so far as this crisis leads to further proliferation of nuclear weapons and raises the possibility of accidental nuclear wars, it is an international crisis of overriding importance, possibly equaling the rearmament of Germany in the 1930s, which eventually led to World War II. Situated in the neighborhood of North Korea, Japan must muster courage and wisdom and build national consensus on how to deal with this crisis. Japan cannot afford to slumber in pseudo-peace without shedding off its long-standing national inertia, while leaving this issue for other nations to resolve.

Military solutions by surgical operations would inevitably pose catastrophic risks to Japan. International pressures on North Korea alone, even if maximized by way of enhanced UN resolutions, could not bring about the needed change of heart by Chairman Kim Jon-un. Pressures are absolutely necessary but not sufficient to achieve our purpose.

In this connection, we believe that Japan can make far more contributions than the average Japanese thinks; Japan is in a position to offer sufficient conditions by way of diplomatic initiatives. In concrete terms, now that a certain degree of pressure mechanism has been put in place by the latest enhanced UN resolution, the time has come for Japan to join forces with like-minded nations to open up an “escape” route for North Korea. Japan could urge North Korea to accept a nuclear-free zone in North-East Asia including the Korean Peninsular and Japan, in return for the assurance of its survival and economic development. Should this idea happily become a reality, we wish that the Japanese people would renounce the possession of nuclear weapons in a Constitutional amendment.

Because of complicated international interests, it would naturally take a long time, possibly over 5 to 10 years, to realize this idea. And even if this nuclear-free zone is created, Japan will not be freed from tackling various problems for its future national security. In our view Japan is required to change its “Exclusively Defense-Oriented Security Policy”, which it has consistently observed after the end of war, even though “extended deterrence” under the so-called American “nuclear umbrella” continues to ensure Japan’s security. Presently Japan’s Self-Defense Forces are not equipped for counter-attacks on the origins of stand-off attacks on Japan. This is utterly unrealistic. People are aware that it is in practice impossible to shoot down all the in-coming missiles. Even if technically possible, it would require an astronomical sum of defense spending. Japan must quickly start efforts to build defense capabilities that would enable Japan to launch counter-attacks on the origins of attacks at much longer ranges than is possible today. If combined with the affirmation of Japan’s non-nuclear stance in the Constitution, a much wider national consensus could be obtained for the Constitutional legality of the Self-Defense Forces by way of the revision of the second clause of Article 9.

Japan must break up the present deadlock in its relations with ROK, China and Russia and improve and stabilize its relations with these close neighbors, even if that would require a certain degree of compromise on Japan’s part. As it becomes clearer that little hope can be placed on the international leadership of the United States under the unprincipled, at times erratic, Trump presidency, Japan must promote better relations with these neighboring countries through its own self-reliant diplomatic efforts. Given the past experiences, there may be little that Japan could do to improve its relationship with ROK. But Japan could come up with new efforts to seek progress in relations while deferring till later the solution of the knotty territorial issues with Russia and the Senkaku Islands issue with China.

The Japanese people, faced with this serious crisis, have begun to understand that more self-reliant efforts are required in Japan’s foreign and security policies and that Japan should spend more on defense. The Government should be more proactive in explaining the complexities of the problems. What needs to be understood, in particular, is that timely and appropriate compromises are necessary to create a virtuous circle in relations with our neighbors. The Japanese Government must be courageous enough to change its diplomacy, which, in our frank assessment, has tended to be uncompromising. We are confident that the whole nation will support such a change, once the government makes up its mind.

(Masamichi Hanabusa is Emeritus Chairman, and Sadaaki Numata is Chairman of the ESUJ.)
The English-Speaking Union of Japan




日本はいかに北朝鮮の脅威に対処できるか
英正道 元駐イタリア大使 / 沼田貞昭 元駐カナダ大使 / 

2017年 9月 28日
 米中ロを含む関係諸国が、北朝鮮に核・弾道ミサイル計画を放棄させることに同意できない場合には、国際の平和と安全に対して重大な脅威が生まれる事は明白である。この危機は、一層の核拡散の危険と偶発的な核戦争の可能性を高めるが故に、第二次大戦につながった1930年代のドイツの再武装に匹敵する第一級の国際的な危機である。北朝鮮に隣接する日本は、この危機に対処すべく英知を結集し国民的合意を形成しなければならない。日本人は偽りの平和に眠り、無気力に陥り、問題解決を他国任せにすることは許されない。

 日本にとって軍事的な外科手術的な解決は破滅的なリスクを伴う。北朝鮮に対する国際社会の圧力が、強化された国連決議で最大化されても、このことだけでは北朝鮮の翻意は期待薄である。圧力は欠かせない必要条件であるが、それだけでは十分でないことは明白である。この関連で、筆者は日本は外交的なイニシアチブで十分条件を提供する上で、日本人一般が考えるよりも遥かに大きな貢献ができると信じる。具体的には、日本は直近の国連決議で一定の圧力の仕組みが出来たこの機会に、北朝鮮に退路を与えるべく思いを共にする国と協力して、北朝鮮の生存と発展の保証と引き換えに、北朝鮮に朝鮮半島と日本を包摂する北東アジア非核地帯を創設する提案を受け入れることを求めるべきである。幸いにこの構想が実現の暁には、筆者は日本国民が憲法に非核政策を明記することを希望する。
 
 複雑な国際的利害関係から、この構想の実現には当然のこととして相当の時間、恐らく5年ないし10年の歳月が掛かるであろう。またこの構想が実現しても日本の将来の安全保障におけるいくつかの問題点への日本の対応も実現しなければならない。日米安保の下の「核の傘」に基づく拡大抑止が引き続き日本の安全を保証するとしても、日本は戦後一貫して維持して来た「専守防衛」政策を転換させねばならない。攻撃に対する反撃が行えない現在の状況は明確に非現実的である。国民も飛来する全てのミサイルを撃ち落とすことはおそらく不可能で、もし技術的に可能だとしてもそのためには天文学的な防衛予算を必要とするであろうことは理解している。この危機を契機に、日本は現在よりも「足の長い」反撃を可能にする防衛力を構築する努力を速やかに始めねばならない。憲法第9条第2項の改正による自衛隊の地位の明確化も、非核改憲と同時に行うことで、より広範な国民合意を得られるであろう。

 日本は韓国、中国、ロシアという隣人との関係の改善と安定化のために、若干の妥協を行なっても、現在の硬直化した閉塞状況を打破しなければならない。原理原則を欠くトランプ大統領の下の米国の国際的な指導力には期待が持てないことが日を追って明らかになりつつある現在、日本は独自の努力でこれらの近隣諸国との良好な関係の発展の基礎を築かねばならない。韓国との関係はこれまでの経緯から日本側が成しうることは乏しいと考えざるを得ない。しかし北方領土問題と尖閣諸島問題については、日本側からこれらの問題の解決を先送りしつつ関係の進展を図る新しい方策を示し得ると考える。

 今回の危機を通じて、国民も外交政策、安全保障政策に一層の自主性と努力が求められ、防衛負担の増大の必要があることを理解し始めている。政府はもっと積極的に問題の複雑さについて国民に語りかけ、特に外交は妥協によって近隣国との関係における好循環を生み出す時宜を得た慎重な努力であるとの理解を深めねばならない。政府は勇気を持って、筆者がともすれば非妥協的であったと考えざるを得ないこれまでの日本外交の転換を図るべきで、国民は必ずこの転換を支持するであろう。

(英正道は本連盟の名誉会長、沼田貞昭は会長である)
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟


English Speaking Union of Japan > Japan in Their Own Words (JITOW) > How Japan Could Respond to the North Korean Threat