Japan in Their Own Words (JITOW)/日本からの意見

Prime Minister Koizumi's North Korea Visit: Avoiding "a Second Iraq" on the Peninsula
OKONOGI Masao / Professor at Keio University

October 1, 2002
For Japan, normalization of relations with North Korea (the Democratic People's Republic of Korea) had long been a 'historic agenda' equivalent to the Northern Territories issue. If peace comes to the Korean Peninsula, further more, one of the two major conflicts in East Asia – the other being the Taiwan Strait issue - would have been resolved.

However, aside from this sense of historic mission, the Japanese government had been persistently troubled by two 'nightmares.' The first was concern that Japan will be 'passed over' by the United States and South Korea. This nightmare came close to becoming reality two years ago, when South Korean President Kim Dae-jung and North Korean general secretary Kim Jong Il met in June, followed by U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright's visit to Pyongyang in October.

As if taking advantage of such concern, North Korea unilaterally cut off negotiations with Japan. Had U.S. President Bill Clinton paid a visit to Pyongyang in December, Japan -feeling left out in the cold - may have rushed to normalize relations with North Korea by shelving the abduction issue. That would have caused a major rift in Japanese public opinion.

The second nightmare was fear that the North Korean situation would escalate into a military crisis. In March 1993, when North Korea declared its withdrawal from the NPT (nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty), or when in the following summer the U.S. government became strongly suspicious of an underground facility in Kumchang-ni and adamantly demanded inspections, the Japanese government was caught unprepared against a military crisis. These experiences consequently led to the creation of the Regional Crisis Law.

And it was this second nightmare that had loomed over the Japanese government ahead of the historic summit meeting between Japan and North Korea. Should an attack on Iraq take place before the resumption of U.S.-North Korean dialogue, the logic of military sanctions was likely to be applied to North Korea - considered to be a member of the "axis of evil" - as well. And North Korea becoming a ‘second Iraq’ would necessitate the invocation of the Regional Crisis Law.

The latest move by general secretary Kim Jong Il, of inviting Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and encouraging the resumption of negotiations, was based on the same perspective. To avoid a military crisis and to reopen dialogue with the United States, Kim Jong-Il needed the help of Koizumi, an ally of U.S. President George Bush. His political decision to admit to the abductions and offer his apology was the 'expensive price' he paid in exchange.

However, the complete resolution of the abduction issue is not the only demand being made of Kim Jong-Il. During the course of the resumed U.S.-North Korean talks, he will be faced with important decisions on suspending the development, deployment and export of long-range missiles and cooperating with nuclear inspections by the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency). Without these concessions, relations with Japan will not be normalized, nor a military crisis avoided.

Then again, if talks with Japan - which are to resume next month - proceed smoothly, Japan will begin considering concrete plans for extending economic assistance. Such support would be crucial for North Korea, which has only recently launched its "economic reforms," such as the partial abolition of its rationing system, revision of its salary and price structure, establishing a realistic foreign exchange mechanism and improvement of its self-sustenance capability.

Faced with shocking news of the deaths of eight of the abductees, Japanese public opinion has exploded in outrage along with the victims' families. It would be difficult to appease such emotions. North Korean negotiation tactics - of inviting Prime Minister Koizumi to Pyongyang while withholding this serious information in the hope of resolving the abduction issue once and for all at the summit meeting - were undeniably repugnant.

Then again, we would be hard-pressed to come up with an answer to the question posed by Prime Minister Koizumi: "What would have happened had I left the negotiating table in disgust?" While he probably meant to say that it would have become impossible to discover the truth about the abductions, the issue is far more complex.

Had Prime Minister Koizumi left the table, the Bush administration would have refused to resume talks with North Korea and instead resort to applying pressure on the country through various means. Japan may have been left with no choice but to stand next to the United States on the very frontline against North Korea.

The writer is Professor at Keio University teaching East Asian Affairs. He contributed this comment to the Yomiuri Shimbun.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan




小泉首相の訪朝: 北朝鮮の「第2のイラク化」回避
小此木 政夫 / 慶應義塾大学教授

2002年 10月 1日
北朝鮮(朝鮮民主主義人民共和国)との国交正常化は、これまで、北方領土問題と並ぶ「歴史的な課題」の一つとされてきた。また、朝鮮半島に平和が到来すれば、台湾海峡と並ぶ東アジアの二大紛争の一つが解決されることになる。

しかし、そのような使命感とは別に、これまで政府は「二つの悪夢」に悩まされ続けた。その第一は米韓両国による日本の「頭越し」である。二年ほど前、六月に金大中大統領が金正日総書記と会談し、十月にオルブライト国務長官が平壌を訪問したとき、この悪夢は現実のものになろうとしていた。

それを見透かすかのように、北朝鮮側は日朝国交交渉を一方的に決裂させた。12月に、もしクリントン大統領まで平壌を訪問すれば、一人取り残された日本は拉致問題を棚上げして、北朝鮮との関係正常化に走ったかもしれない。それは国論の大分裂を招来したことだろう。

第二の悪夢は北朝鮮問題の軍事危機への拡大である。1993年3月、北朝鮮がNPT(核拡散防止条約)脱退を表明したときも、翌年夏、米国政府が金倉里の地下施設に強い疑いを抱いて、強硬に査察を要求したときも、日本政府は軍事危機への対処方針を持っていなかった。その経験が周辺事態法を生んだのである。

歴史的な日朝首脳会談を前に、日本政府を脅かしていたのは後者の悪夢である。米朝対話が回復されないまま、イラク攻撃が開始されれば、軍事制裁の論理は同じ「悪の枢軸」の一員である北朝鮮にも適用されるだろう。北朝鮮が「第二のイラク」になることは、周辺事態法が発動されることを意味している。

今回、金正日総書記が小泉首相を平壌に招待し、日朝交渉の再開を促したのも、同じような考慮に基づくものであった。軍事危機を回避し、米国との対話を再開するために、金正日はブッシュ大統領の盟友である小泉の協力を必要としたのである。拉致事実を認めて、謝罪するとの政治的決断は、そのための「高価な代償」であった。

しかし、現在、金正日総書記に要求されているのは、拉致問題の完全解決だけではない。再開される米朝交渉において、長距離ミサイルの開発、配備、輸出の中止、IAEA(国際原子力機関)の核査察への協力などについても、重大な決断を下さなければならない。それなしには、日朝関係の正常化は達成されないし、軍事危機も回避されない。

他方、来月中に再開される日朝会談が順調に進展すれば、やがて日本からの経済協力が具体的に検討される。配給制の一部廃止、賃金・価格体系の手直し、為替現実化、独立採算制の強化などの「経済改革」に着手したばかりの北朝鮮にとって、それは不可欠の援軍である。

拉致被害者八人の死亡という衝撃的な事実に直面して、被害者の家族はもちろん世論も激憤した。この感情は容易に癒されないだろう。また、この重大な事実を秘匿したまま小泉首相を平壌に招待し、拉致問題を首脳会談の場で一挙に処理しようとする北朝鮮側の交渉戦術にも嫌悪感を覚えざるをえない。

しかし、それでは、「私が不満だと言って(席を)蹴って帰ってきたらどういう結果になったでしょうか」との小泉首相の問いかけに対して、何と答えたらよいのだろうか。小泉首相は「(拉致事件の)真相がわからなくなる」といいたかったようだが、ことはそれほど単純ではない。

小泉首相が席を蹴ってしまえば、それをみたブッシュ政権は北朝鮮との対話再開を拒絶し、やがてさまざまな圧力を加重するだろう。米国とともに、日本は北朝鮮との対決の最前線に立たざるをえなくなったかもしれない。
(筆者は慶應義塾大学法学部教授。この原稿は読売新聞に掲載されたものです。)
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟


English Speaking Union of Japan > Japan in Their Own Words (JITOW) > Prime Minister Koizumi's North Korea Visit: Avoiding "a Second Iraq" on the Peninsula