Japan in Their Own Words (JITOW)/日本からの意見

Impressions of the Latest Chinese Communist Party Congress
TADOKORO Takehiko  / Trustee of Toho Gakuen

December 4, 2002
From time to time, I've used the following argument - a slightly simplistic one - to encourage university students: an individual should be evaluated based on face, brains and personality. It would be hopeless if you get to age fifty or sixty with bad marks in all three, but when you’re young it's possible to cultivate your brain and polish your personality, which should consequently improve your face somewhat. Applying this logic to Chinese politicians, my personal opinion has been that Chou En-Lai was one who more or less passed all three tests. I also felt that Hu Jintao, elected general secretary at the recent 16th Communist Party of China National Congress, seemed quite promising, after watching him deliver his inaugural speech on television. Of the nine new members of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau, only Wen Jiabao - slated to become Prime Minister - left a favorable impression on me.

Of course it would take more than being nice to navigate the murky political waters. Jiang Zemin, who stepped down as general secretary, will stay on as chairman of the Central Military Commission, and is likely to continue pulling the strings from behind the curtain. After a decade at the top post, he is expected to ride the momentum and retain a decisive grip on foreign policy as well, promising a long spell of perseverance for Hu Jintao.

The Party Constitution was revised to include Jiang's 'Three Represents' concept. Under this concept, the Chinese Communist Party should be the representative of (1) the requirements for developing China's advanced production forces, (2) the direction of progress of China's advanced culture and (3) the fundamental interests of the overwhelming majority of the Chinese people. There was some commentary in the Japanese mass media describing it as "signaling a transformation from a class party to a national party," or as "a new socialist experiment." However, not all reactions were as optimistic. As far as I could see, the most critical response came from Bao Tong, in an article titled "Caught Between Self-Negation and State of Pre-Birth," which was carried in the September issue of Hong Kong’s Chengming magazine.

By way of introduction, Bao Tong begins his reality check of the status quo by saying "the Three Represents idea hits a chord - all three appeal to the masses." According to his analysis, while the growing influence of the Chinese Communist Party was founded on the workers' movement, farmers' movement and student movement, today the relationship between the party and the masses has undergone drastic change, with several tens of millions unemployed and only a handful of nouveau riche making a fortune in the rural regions. Students advocating democracy and an end to corruption were bloodily suppressed on June 4, 1989. The 'Three Represents' are appropriate to the times because one can doubt socialism but not 'advanced production forces,' Marx-Leninism but not ‘advanced culture,’ and even if the communist party can no longer represent the workers, farmers and students, it can always represent something as abstract as 'the overwhelming majority of the Chinese people,' he writes.

The harshness of his comments may be attributable to the fact that Bao Tong was a policy aide to former-general secretary Zhao Ziyang and an anti-Establishment sympathizer who fell from power after the June 4 Incident. Nevertheless, its movement limited by corruption and authoritarianism, the world's largest ruling party is certainly faced with a severe environment. How long will the new leadership be able to maintain the balance of government on the back of a developing economy? Challenging days lie ahead.

The writer is a Trustee of Toho Gakuen and former Beijing Bureau Chief of the Asahi Newspaper.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan




中国共産党大会閉幕寸感
田所竹彦 / 桐朋学園理事

2002年 12月 4日
大学生を励ます時などに、以下のような論法を使ったことがある。それは人物を評価する場合、顔、頭、人間で判断してはどうかというもので、全部悪いまま50歳、60歳になればあまり見込みはないが、若いうちは頭を鍛え、人間を磨くことは可能で、それにつれて顔も多少は良くなるだろうという少し乱暴な話だ。これで中国の政治家をみてゆくと、3つともほぼ合格は周恩来、というのが私見だった。今度の第16回党大会で総書記に選ばれた胡錦涛の挨拶をテレビで見ていて、この人もかなりの線まで行くかも知れないと思った。新しい政治局常務委員9人のうち、ほかに好感が持てたのは首相就任が予定されている温家宝ぐらいのもので、あとは取り立てて感想はない。

だが、少し感じがいいくらいで乗り切っていけるほど、政治は甘くない。ひとつは、総書記前任者の江沢民が中央軍事委員会主席に留任し、院政を敷くと見られる点だ。10年あまりトップの座を占めた余勢を駆って、当分は外交の決定権も手放さないと見られ、胡錦涛はその分、我慢の時が続くことになる。

改正された党規約には、江沢民の「3つの代表」論が盛り込まれた。これは、中国共産党が①中国の先進的社会生産力の発展要求②中国の先進的文化の前進方向③中国の最も広範な人民の根本的利益、を代表すべきだというもの。日本のマスメディアには「階級政党から国民政党への脱皮を示す」「新社会主義への実験」などの論評もあったが、それほど楽観的な評価ばかりではない。私がみたうちで最も辛口だったのは、香港の雑誌『争鳴』2002年9月号に載った鮑彤の「已死と未生のはざまで」という文章だった。

鮑彤は「3つの代表の理論は心を打つ。3つとも大衆が喜ぶものばかりだからだ」と前置きして実態を分析する。それによると、中国共産党は労働運動、農民運動、学生運動を基礎に勢力を伸ばしたが、いまや党と大衆の関係は一変し、数千万の失業者が出ている上に農村で大儲けしているのは一握りの成り金だけ。民主と腐敗反対を叫んだ学生は89年の6・4事件で血の弾圧をうけた。いまなぜ「3つの代表」かといえば、社会主義を疑っても「先進的生産力」を疑ってはならず、マルクス・レーニン主義を疑っても「先進的文化」を疑ってはならず、共産党が労働者、農民、学生を代表できなくなっても抽象的な「最も広範な人民」は代表できるからだ、と。

鮑彤は趙紫陽元総書記のブレーンで6・4事件で失脚した反体制派だからといえなくもないが、腐敗と強権で身動きがとれにくいこの世界最大の政権党を取り巻く環境は確かに厳しい。発展する経済を頼りに、新指導部がどこまで政権運営のバランスを維持できるのか、当分は試練の時が続くと思われる。

(筆者は桐朋学園理事、元朝日新聞北京支局長)
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟


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