| |
The most pressing policy need faced by the European
Council and the European Central Bank (ECB) today lies in preparing
an exit from the euro bloc for Greece and other dropouts. For
the moment, such a policy may only apply to Greece. It should
not take the form of an expulsion. Rather, the proud country
should be allowed to make an "honorable retreat" as
the rest of the euro countries stand by in a reverential salute.
In the event, Germany and France should guarantee up to 50
percent of Greece's external debt. Germany has benefited most
from the single currency in the ten years since the euro came
into circulation. Even the Greek crisis was good news for
German exporters. Requiring no effort on their part, the weak
euro enabled them to vanquish Japanese exports suffering under
the weight of the strong yen in the global arena. Meanwhile,
France had their man Jean-Claude Trichet firmly instated as
ECB President between 2003 and 2011. It was during this period
that Greek finances took a dramatic turn for the worst as
the ECB looked the other way, allowing Athens to continue
reporting falsified fiscal figures. Such considerations apart,
it is nevertheless true that unless Berlin and Paris quickly
join hands in a rescue effort, there will be no way out. And
Greece is not the one waiting to be rescued here. Germany
and France will be rescuing the euro system itself, and consequently,
themselves.
Transforming Europe into a greater economic bloc united by
a common currency, the euro – the idea signified the establishment
of a federal republic of euro with no internal warfare and
the creation of an impregnable European bridgehead in anticipation
of an era of fierce competition against the United States
and other powerful economic regions. European countries merit
praise for having had the ability to clearly imagine such
a future in the times of Giscard d’Estaing and Helmut Schmidt.
Yet, European politicians and bureaucrats, ever masterful
at swallowing the unreasonable, were perhaps too clever by
half.
The European Monetary System (EMS) and the accounting unit
ecu - the nascent form of the euro - first came to light in
July 1978 at the summit meeting of the European Community
in Bremen, Germany. Chancellor Schmidt chaired the meeting,
and his spokesman Klaus Bölling appeared in the press room
several times to offer lectures on the fundamentals of international
currencies. The EC countries were to gradually narrow the
band of exchange rate fluctuations between regional currencies
until it ultimately reached zero. This was to give rise to
a single European currency that can stand shoulder to shoulder
with the U.S. dollar for the first time.
However, being there at the time as a journalist, I felt
there was one thing that didn't quite make sense. At the time,
the EC was already engaged in so-called "Snake"
interventions in the foreign exchange market. But in reality,
the three major European currencies – British sterling, French
franc and Italian lira – had fallen behind the deutschemark,
which was gaining growing confidence in the market, and were
being forced to temporarily dislodge from the Snake system
or to reduce their parity against the U.S. dollar. When I
pointed that out, Mr. Bölling responded by emphasizing that
existing gaps among the economic and financial performances
of the EC countries will undergo a repeated process of mandatory
"convergence."
Listening to his reply I remember thinking that the economies
of Germany and Italy will never converge, and I still believe
this to be so. Of course, Italy has been making an admirable
effort as a starting member of the euro, and should not be
viewed in the same vein as Greece. As for the people of Greece,
by now I am sure they entertain no illusions about prosperity
under the euro. For the Greeks, "convergence" does
not mean forcing the citizens of Athens to bow to standards
set by the barbaric Gauls of the north. They fondly remember
their drachma as a global currency that held sway over a vast
region encompassing the Aegean Sea, the Black Sea, the Caspian
Sea and the Indian Ocean at the time of Alexander the Great.
Once leaving the euro bloc they will get their drachma back,
and will rediscover a Greece freed from the dominance of Brussels
or Frankfurt.
Meanwhile, the euro countries will enjoy a few months or
a few years of respite, only to encounter the next stray sheep.
The economic and financial behaviors of countries reflect
diverse historic backgrounds and national identities, and
are not something that can be bound by artificial and mandatory
"convergence."
The writer is Professor Emeritus in International Politics
at Wako University.
|