Japanese Voters Force Parties to be Committal
HANABUSA Masamichi / Former Ambassador to Italy
July 29, 2003
The merging of the Liberal Party (LP) and the Democratic Party (DP) announced last week is extremely significant in opening the possibility that the next general elections may bring about a breakthrough in the longstanding logjam in Japanese politics. Together with Prime Minister Koizumi Jun-ichiro, DP leader Kan Naoto and LP leader Ozawa Ichiro have been known as political mavericks. The next general elections will be a clash between two major parties led by these unorthodox leaders. It may be safely said that at long last an important change augurs in Japan's traditional political pattern, where politicians are ranked by the factions they belong to and by the numbers of times they are re-elected, and politics are under the strong influence of triangular interactions among politicians, bureaucrats and big business.
It is still premature to pass definitive judgment on the achievements of Prime Minister Koizumi, who emerged at the end of the "lost decade." But it must be pointed out that the very critical evaluation which Japan's mass media have made of him evidently reveals that their views are biased - considerably manipulated by politicians in Nagata-cho. It is also clear that these evaluations do not necessarily reflect the subtle political realism emerging in the minds of city dwellers. The political drama that will unfold in the coming six months will surely prove this to be true.
Japanese intellectuals often contend that high literacy in Japan does not necessarily mean high quality of intelligence of the Japanese, nor lead to their having a good political conscience as voters. This writer, however, values highly the fact that Japanese voters have not infrequently displayed good political judgment under the respective given circumstances through their voting. Rather, politicians have often failed to grasp correctly the message of voters at the polls; their post-election behavior has been opportunistic and lacked political ethics. A good example was the political marriage of convenience between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Socialist Party (SP) in 1993, which gave rise to the socialist premiership of Murayama Tomiichi. Japanese voters severely punished the SP by deserting it in later elections.
Until recently, the Japanese political system was closely related to the redistribution of wealth within the nation. This system presumed the abundance of distributable budgetary and financial resources. It has also created in Japan a structure in which various vested interests patronized the political parties. This tendency was particularly salient in farming constituencies, as more funding found its way to farming regions than cities under the post-war national objective of minimizing wealth gaps in Japanese society. Although rapid urbanization raised the political significance of city voters, many of them have felt excluded from the system, as the reapportionment of constituencies has always been unbalanced and as a result, a single vote of a city dweller has continued to weigh substantially less than that of a farmer. As long as Japan's total economic pie kept growing, smoldering dissatisfaction among city voters was contained. Even when Japanese economic growth started to stagnate and dissatisfaction among city voters began to mount, still no major change happened in Japan's domestic politics, as evidenced by the LDP's decision to join forces with Komeito - an anti-communist Buddhist group, though the latter's supporters represented a radical segment of Japanese society. It is worth noting that over these years voting patterns have continued to change in the city areas.
At present, the Japanese are quite dissatisfied with the state of Japan's economy. Nevertheless, it appears that the majority of Japanese still approve of Prime Minister Koizumi, who professes to place more importance on structural reforms than on economic stimulation. It may not be an exaggeration to say that minor groups within the mass media are the only ones showing any sympathy towards contenders for Prime Minister within the LDP, who are vociferously asking for substantial budgetary spending to inflate the economy. With the majority of young wage earners refusing to pay pension premiums - strongly doubting if they can duly receive pension benefits when they are themselves pensioned off, these young voters will hardly lend their ears to the anachronistic voices of these political contenders clamouring for large public spending.
Japanese voters are increasingly deepening their doubts about spurious election promises made by political candidates. It is most probable that they will demand the political parties to come up with concrete policy programs and cast their votes on the merits of such programs. This trend can be recognized in a statement made by the Prime Minister that his political promises during the election for the LDP Presidency should be accepted by party members as the Party's political commitment in the forthcoming national elections. Likewise, there is heightened public opinion that the political parties should indicate their policies on major issues more clearly in the form of a so-called "policy manifest."
There are a few good reasons why Japanese voters who were hitherto considered politically passive and conservative by nature have changed their political stance. First, with the deepening realization that loose public spending is no longer feasible in the face of a severe budgetary crisis, the Japanese have come to attach greater importance on how public money is spent. Secondly, as the malfunctions of the post-war Japanese system has come to light, people came to realize that no bright future is in store for them as long as they continue with the present way of doing things. Prime Minister Koizumi has unwittingly made his unique contribution to the success of this Japanese version of glasnost. Thirdly, faced with the war in Iraq, the development by North Korea of nuclear weapons and missiles and the stunning economic growth China is making, the nation’s attention has been directed at issues of national security and law and order, thus awakening hitherto dormant nationalistic feelings.
The single-member constituency system is known to lead to a two-party political system and domination of the party by its hierarchical leadership. This process has not advanced in Japan as much as it has in Italy, which adopted electoral reforms very similar to Japan’s about the same time, since the self-preserving instinct of individual professional politicians is too strong, the power wielded by LDP factions too overwhelming and the struggle for survival for small parties too intense to allow the consequences of electoral reform to take place easily in Japan. However, though belatedly, it seems that the same process is slowly happening in Japan, too.
Japanese voters may be given an opportunity to prove their political sagacity in the forthcoming general elections later this year, if, as a result of the present merger of two major opposition parties, the LDP and the "new" DP move in the direction of clarifying their policy differences. On the eve of general elections, Japanese voters are anxious to see the two major parties clarify their policy stance on issues such as the promotion of local autonomy, reform of various structures fortified by vested interests, redressing of the educational system, national security and diplomatic policies reflecting the long-term national interests of Japan.
The writer is former Ambassador to Italy
It is still premature to pass definitive judgment on the achievements of Prime Minister Koizumi, who emerged at the end of the "lost decade." But it must be pointed out that the very critical evaluation which Japan's mass media have made of him evidently reveals that their views are biased - considerably manipulated by politicians in Nagata-cho. It is also clear that these evaluations do not necessarily reflect the subtle political realism emerging in the minds of city dwellers. The political drama that will unfold in the coming six months will surely prove this to be true.
Japanese intellectuals often contend that high literacy in Japan does not necessarily mean high quality of intelligence of the Japanese, nor lead to their having a good political conscience as voters. This writer, however, values highly the fact that Japanese voters have not infrequently displayed good political judgment under the respective given circumstances through their voting. Rather, politicians have often failed to grasp correctly the message of voters at the polls; their post-election behavior has been opportunistic and lacked political ethics. A good example was the political marriage of convenience between the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Socialist Party (SP) in 1993, which gave rise to the socialist premiership of Murayama Tomiichi. Japanese voters severely punished the SP by deserting it in later elections.
Until recently, the Japanese political system was closely related to the redistribution of wealth within the nation. This system presumed the abundance of distributable budgetary and financial resources. It has also created in Japan a structure in which various vested interests patronized the political parties. This tendency was particularly salient in farming constituencies, as more funding found its way to farming regions than cities under the post-war national objective of minimizing wealth gaps in Japanese society. Although rapid urbanization raised the political significance of city voters, many of them have felt excluded from the system, as the reapportionment of constituencies has always been unbalanced and as a result, a single vote of a city dweller has continued to weigh substantially less than that of a farmer. As long as Japan's total economic pie kept growing, smoldering dissatisfaction among city voters was contained. Even when Japanese economic growth started to stagnate and dissatisfaction among city voters began to mount, still no major change happened in Japan's domestic politics, as evidenced by the LDP's decision to join forces with Komeito - an anti-communist Buddhist group, though the latter's supporters represented a radical segment of Japanese society. It is worth noting that over these years voting patterns have continued to change in the city areas.
At present, the Japanese are quite dissatisfied with the state of Japan's economy. Nevertheless, it appears that the majority of Japanese still approve of Prime Minister Koizumi, who professes to place more importance on structural reforms than on economic stimulation. It may not be an exaggeration to say that minor groups within the mass media are the only ones showing any sympathy towards contenders for Prime Minister within the LDP, who are vociferously asking for substantial budgetary spending to inflate the economy. With the majority of young wage earners refusing to pay pension premiums - strongly doubting if they can duly receive pension benefits when they are themselves pensioned off, these young voters will hardly lend their ears to the anachronistic voices of these political contenders clamouring for large public spending.
Japanese voters are increasingly deepening their doubts about spurious election promises made by political candidates. It is most probable that they will demand the political parties to come up with concrete policy programs and cast their votes on the merits of such programs. This trend can be recognized in a statement made by the Prime Minister that his political promises during the election for the LDP Presidency should be accepted by party members as the Party's political commitment in the forthcoming national elections. Likewise, there is heightened public opinion that the political parties should indicate their policies on major issues more clearly in the form of a so-called "policy manifest."
There are a few good reasons why Japanese voters who were hitherto considered politically passive and conservative by nature have changed their political stance. First, with the deepening realization that loose public spending is no longer feasible in the face of a severe budgetary crisis, the Japanese have come to attach greater importance on how public money is spent. Secondly, as the malfunctions of the post-war Japanese system has come to light, people came to realize that no bright future is in store for them as long as they continue with the present way of doing things. Prime Minister Koizumi has unwittingly made his unique contribution to the success of this Japanese version of glasnost. Thirdly, faced with the war in Iraq, the development by North Korea of nuclear weapons and missiles and the stunning economic growth China is making, the nation’s attention has been directed at issues of national security and law and order, thus awakening hitherto dormant nationalistic feelings.
The single-member constituency system is known to lead to a two-party political system and domination of the party by its hierarchical leadership. This process has not advanced in Japan as much as it has in Italy, which adopted electoral reforms very similar to Japan’s about the same time, since the self-preserving instinct of individual professional politicians is too strong, the power wielded by LDP factions too overwhelming and the struggle for survival for small parties too intense to allow the consequences of electoral reform to take place easily in Japan. However, though belatedly, it seems that the same process is slowly happening in Japan, too.
Japanese voters may be given an opportunity to prove their political sagacity in the forthcoming general elections later this year, if, as a result of the present merger of two major opposition parties, the LDP and the "new" DP move in the direction of clarifying their policy differences. On the eve of general elections, Japanese voters are anxious to see the two major parties clarify their policy stance on issues such as the promotion of local autonomy, reform of various structures fortified by vested interests, redressing of the educational system, national security and diplomatic policies reflecting the long-term national interests of Japan.
The writer is former Ambassador to Italy
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
二大政党に鮮明な旗幟を求める日本の有権者
英 正道 / 元駐イタリア大使
2003年 7月 29日
先週実現した自由党の民主党への合流は、この秋の総選挙をきっかけに日本の政治に大きな変動が起こる可能性を開いたという点で極めて重要である。民主党党首の菅直人と自由党党首の小沢一郎は、現首相小泉純一郎とともに、日本の政治伝統の中では異端とも云うべき個性の強い人物である。与野党がともに非伝統的な行動様式を持つ政治家によって主導されて総選挙に臨むことになったのである。世代交代の影響もあり、派閥と当選回数で政治家の格付けが決まり、政、官、財の密接な相互作用を背景に政治が行われるという日本の伝統的な政治パターンに、遂に重要な変化が兆したと言って良い。
失われた１０年の最後に登場した小泉純一郎の業績評価を行うにはまだ時期尚早であろう。しかし少なくとも日本のマスコミがこれまで下してきた小泉評価は、主に永田町の眼鏡で見られたもので、特に近年都市住民の心の中に生じている大きな政治意識の変革との間に微妙なズレが生まれているようである。今後半年の間に起こるであろう日本の政治現実は、恐らくこのことをはっきりと示すと予想される。
日本の有識者たちは、日本人の教育水準の高さは必ずしも知識の質の高さを意味しないとか、優れた政治意識に結びついていないと指摘してきた。筆者はこれまでの日本における過去の幾つかの選挙で示された有権者の審判は、その時々の状況下では政治的な英知に満ちたものであった場合が少なくなかったと評価する。むしろ政治家の行動の方が国民の出すシグナルを正しく受け止めないで、当選後の彼等の行動はしばしば便宜主義的で、政治信義に欠けるものであった。その最たる例は１９９３年に社会党が自民党と連立することにより成立した村山内閣であったが、国民はこれに対してはその後の選挙で社会党を見限るという厳しい審判で答えている。
従来の日本の政治システムは富の再分配と密接にからみ、このシステムは分配可能な十分な財政・金融資金の存在を前提にしてきた。この政治システムは分配を求める諸々の利益代表が諸政党に群がり、支援するという構造を生みだした。この傾向は、国内の経済格差の是正を図るという国家目的から、戦後一貫して、都市に比して農村部に対して一層厚い財政資金の分配が行われてきたために、特に農村部で著しかった。都市化の進行とともに都市住民は相対的にその政治的な比重を高めたとはいえ、一票の格差の是正も進展せず、多くの都市住民は政治的な利益分配のプロセスから排除されていると感じてきた。それにも拘らず都市有権者の不満が爆発しなかったのは、日本経済全体のパイが拡大を続けていたからである。経済成長が鈍化した後も、その支持基盤から云えば本来革新的であっても不思議でない公明党が保守政治と手を握ってきたので、日本の政治には大きな変化は起きなかった。しかし都市では有権者の投票態度は年とともに変化し続けている。
現在経済の現状に対する国民の不満は強いが、それにも拘らず国民は、経済刺激よりも改革を優先させるという小泉首相を基本的に見限ってはいないように見受けられる。声高に財政出動を求める自民党内の小泉首相の対抗馬達に対して、若干の同情を示しているのは殆ど一部のマスコミだけといっても過言ではないであろう。将来の国民年金給付に不安ありとして保険料の支払いを拒否する若い世代が、大規模財政出動を掲げる彼等の時代錯誤の主張を支持し得ないことは明白である。
政治家の選挙目当てのまやかしの主張に懐疑を深めている選挙民たちは、次の総選挙では諸政党に政策プログラムを明示することを求め、その内容によって彼等の投票行動が大きく左右される可能性が高い。すでにこの方向は、自民党総裁選挙における総裁候補の公約が総選挙の自民党公約になるという小泉首相の発言や、政党にいわゆるマニフェストの発表を求める世論の高まりからも読み取れる。
一般に政治的には受動的で保守的と見られて来た日本の有権者の間に、このような意識変化が生まれたことには幾つかの理由がある。第一は厳しい財政事情が明白になり、政府資金のばらまきが今や不可能なことが理解され、それにともない資金配分に当たっての優先順位に高い関心が寄せられることになったことである。第二は戦後の日本の諸制度が機能不全になっていることが日増しに明らかになり、国民は従来の延長線上で明るい日本の未来を考えることは無理だと自覚するようになったことである。この日本版のグラスノスチを実現したという意味で、直接、間接に小泉首相の果たした貢献は大きい。第三はイラク戦争、北朝鮮の核・ミサイル開発、中国の経済発展等に直面して、国民の関心が安全保障、「法と秩序」に向けられるようになり、その結果長い間眠っていた国家意識が目覚めてきたことである。
そもそも小選挙区制度は基本的に二大政党制、党執行部の党支配確立を内包している制度である。個々の政治家の保身本能、自民党の派閥の力の継続、中小政党の露骨な離合集散などで、日本ではこのプロセスは、同じ時期に同様な選挙制度改革を行ったイタリアほどの早さでは進行しなかった。しかし漸く遅ればせながら選挙制度改革の影響がこの国においても現われ始めたと言えよう。
自由党と民主党の合併の結果、自民党と民主党という二大政党がその政策の差異を一層明確化することとなれば、年末近くに予想される総選挙で日本の有権者は、その政治的な叡知を示す機会を与えられることとなろう。日本の有権者は、地方自治の真剣な推進、既得権益の抵抗を排した構造改革、教育政策の是正、安全保障政策、長期的な国家利益を反映する対外政策などについて、自民、民主両党がその姿勢を鮮明にすることを期待している。
（筆者は元駐イタリア大使。）
失われた１０年の最後に登場した小泉純一郎の業績評価を行うにはまだ時期尚早であろう。しかし少なくとも日本のマスコミがこれまで下してきた小泉評価は、主に永田町の眼鏡で見られたもので、特に近年都市住民の心の中に生じている大きな政治意識の変革との間に微妙なズレが生まれているようである。今後半年の間に起こるであろう日本の政治現実は、恐らくこのことをはっきりと示すと予想される。
日本の有識者たちは、日本人の教育水準の高さは必ずしも知識の質の高さを意味しないとか、優れた政治意識に結びついていないと指摘してきた。筆者はこれまでの日本における過去の幾つかの選挙で示された有権者の審判は、その時々の状況下では政治的な英知に満ちたものであった場合が少なくなかったと評価する。むしろ政治家の行動の方が国民の出すシグナルを正しく受け止めないで、当選後の彼等の行動はしばしば便宜主義的で、政治信義に欠けるものであった。その最たる例は１９９３年に社会党が自民党と連立することにより成立した村山内閣であったが、国民はこれに対してはその後の選挙で社会党を見限るという厳しい審判で答えている。
従来の日本の政治システムは富の再分配と密接にからみ、このシステムは分配可能な十分な財政・金融資金の存在を前提にしてきた。この政治システムは分配を求める諸々の利益代表が諸政党に群がり、支援するという構造を生みだした。この傾向は、国内の経済格差の是正を図るという国家目的から、戦後一貫して、都市に比して農村部に対して一層厚い財政資金の分配が行われてきたために、特に農村部で著しかった。都市化の進行とともに都市住民は相対的にその政治的な比重を高めたとはいえ、一票の格差の是正も進展せず、多くの都市住民は政治的な利益分配のプロセスから排除されていると感じてきた。それにも拘らず都市有権者の不満が爆発しなかったのは、日本経済全体のパイが拡大を続けていたからである。経済成長が鈍化した後も、その支持基盤から云えば本来革新的であっても不思議でない公明党が保守政治と手を握ってきたので、日本の政治には大きな変化は起きなかった。しかし都市では有権者の投票態度は年とともに変化し続けている。
現在経済の現状に対する国民の不満は強いが、それにも拘らず国民は、経済刺激よりも改革を優先させるという小泉首相を基本的に見限ってはいないように見受けられる。声高に財政出動を求める自民党内の小泉首相の対抗馬達に対して、若干の同情を示しているのは殆ど一部のマスコミだけといっても過言ではないであろう。将来の国民年金給付に不安ありとして保険料の支払いを拒否する若い世代が、大規模財政出動を掲げる彼等の時代錯誤の主張を支持し得ないことは明白である。
政治家の選挙目当てのまやかしの主張に懐疑を深めている選挙民たちは、次の総選挙では諸政党に政策プログラムを明示することを求め、その内容によって彼等の投票行動が大きく左右される可能性が高い。すでにこの方向は、自民党総裁選挙における総裁候補の公約が総選挙の自民党公約になるという小泉首相の発言や、政党にいわゆるマニフェストの発表を求める世論の高まりからも読み取れる。
一般に政治的には受動的で保守的と見られて来た日本の有権者の間に、このような意識変化が生まれたことには幾つかの理由がある。第一は厳しい財政事情が明白になり、政府資金のばらまきが今や不可能なことが理解され、それにともない資金配分に当たっての優先順位に高い関心が寄せられることになったことである。第二は戦後の日本の諸制度が機能不全になっていることが日増しに明らかになり、国民は従来の延長線上で明るい日本の未来を考えることは無理だと自覚するようになったことである。この日本版のグラスノスチを実現したという意味で、直接、間接に小泉首相の果たした貢献は大きい。第三はイラク戦争、北朝鮮の核・ミサイル開発、中国の経済発展等に直面して、国民の関心が安全保障、「法と秩序」に向けられるようになり、その結果長い間眠っていた国家意識が目覚めてきたことである。
そもそも小選挙区制度は基本的に二大政党制、党執行部の党支配確立を内包している制度である。個々の政治家の保身本能、自民党の派閥の力の継続、中小政党の露骨な離合集散などで、日本ではこのプロセスは、同じ時期に同様な選挙制度改革を行ったイタリアほどの早さでは進行しなかった。しかし漸く遅ればせながら選挙制度改革の影響がこの国においても現われ始めたと言えよう。
自由党と民主党の合併の結果、自民党と民主党という二大政党がその政策の差異を一層明確化することとなれば、年末近くに予想される総選挙で日本の有権者は、その政治的な叡知を示す機会を与えられることとなろう。日本の有権者は、地方自治の真剣な推進、既得権益の抵抗を排した構造改革、教育政策の是正、安全保障政策、長期的な国家利益を反映する対外政策などについて、自民、民主両党がその姿勢を鮮明にすることを期待している。
（筆者は元駐イタリア大使。）
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟