July Election Results Augur Both Setback and Hope
FUKUHARA Koichi / Journalist
August 24, 2007
The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe suffered a crushing defeat in the election for the House of Councilors on July 29, while the Democratic Party led by Mr. Ichiro Ozawa seized control of the Upper House as Japan's major opposition party.
The result of the election not only highlighted the fortune of the two leaders of the rivaling political parties, but it also created an unprecedented tension in the relationship between the administration and legislature, the House of Councilors and the House of Representatives as well as the ruling and the opposition parties, heralding a new political development in Japan.
Last fall, favored by former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, Prime Minister Abe inherited huge political assets of two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives. Abe seemed to have got off to a good start by displaying his youthfulness as the first Japanese Prime Minister born after World War II. He is an advocate of the Constitutional amendment that has been a long-cherished political ambition of the LDP. His new administration gave us the impression that he was the champion to make the transition of power to a next generation in Japanese politics. After only ten months in office, however, he has come to face a massive defeat in his first national election. Hope changed into disappointment. Although Abe showed his firm determination to stay in office with efforts to suppress voices within his devastated LDP calling for his resignation, it would take a long time and require great efforts for him to get things under control and restore his leadership once again.
Most of all, the election result of " 6 wins and 23 losses" in single-seat districts in local regions was fatally serious. The reform-driven administration led by former Prime Minister Koizumi promoted globalization and rationalization of the Japanese economy, gaining wide support from the urban non-aligned voters. In the meantime, the rural economy has declined and it is believed that gaps have widened among regions as a result. Thus, strongholds of the LDP in rural constituencies that had assiduously been built by public works and agricultural subsidies were beginning to collapse.
Koizumi had told the nation that "I will finish off the old LDP that obstructs my reform." His tenacity exerted real influences in many parts of rural districts. Abe overlooked the fact that the political assets he had inherited had been seriously undermined and yet he failed to take appropriate measures. Throughout the election he maintained that he would continue Koizumi's reforms and, even after he learned of his defeat in the election, he claimed that his will to reform was being well understood by the people and there was no reason for him to step down.
It cannot be denied that Prime Minister Abe was a little too optimistic about the domestic situation and that there was a perception gap between he and other members of his own party. It is apparent that his political power base has rapidly been weakened.
Mr. Ozawa of the Democratic Party staked his political life on the election, burning the bridge behind him. By adroitly trying to capture the single-seat districts in the rural areas where voters were disillusioned by the LDP, he scored a sweeping victory. It is generally recognized, however, that post-election opinion polls show that Abe's LDP simply did too poorly in the election and that the election results do not necessarily mean that voters had expected a new administration led by the Democratic Party. It is extremely important, nevertheless, that for the first time under the current Constitution the Democratic Party has gained full control of the House of Councilors; it took the Presidency of the Upper House and the chairmanship of its steering committee. There is fair chance that this could introduce a new and possibly sanguine element, in the Diet proceedings and, as a consequence, in Japan's future political situation.
Under the circumstances, even if the Democratic Party seeks to force the government to dissolve the Lower House, by voting down or amending the Cabinet bills in the Upper House, it is unlikely that LDP accepts this challenge and call for general elections. The LDP would not risk general elections that might turn it into a minority party in the Lower House as well. The Constitution stipulates that when two Houses of the Diet make different decisions, the Lower House may overrule the decision of the Upper House by its two-thirds vote. The Upper House does not possess power to override the Lower House's decision. Political wisdom will eventually leads the LDP to find it unwise to override all the Upper House's decisions by its two-thirds vote. Given a divided Diet for some time to come, probably a new practice of seeking compromises through discussions in the Joint Committee composed of representatives of two Houses will become customary.
It is often said that under the Japanese parliamentary cabinet system, the ruling party tends to hasten to gain approval of Cabinet bills while the opposition parties simply try to prolong deliberations and to hold back the approval rather than to revise or modify the bills. In addition, the Upper House is frequently referred to as "a carbon copy of the Lower House." There are quite a few who lament over stultified Diet deliberations and the derogation of Diet members' authority. No doubt this lamentable situation resulted from the prolonged monopoly of the reins of government by the LDP as it had virtually maintained its one-party rule for a long time. The Democratic Party's dominance in the Upper House will invigorate the legislative functioning and significantly strengthen the opposition party's policymaking ability. The new situation may open up an important step forward for a smooth change of administration based on policies, which is after all the greatest essence of democracy.
Prime Minister Abe has already announced that he was going to respect the opposition party's opinions even more at Diet deliberations from now on. Mr. Heizo Takenaka, former Minister of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications and promoter of reformist policies under Koizumi's regime, said: "If the Democratic Party comes up with a good bill, we'll just buy it. Then, there will be a political turnaround to break down the collusion between government officials and Diet backers who work on behalf of special interests and benefit from their efforts."
One of the focal points in the Diet this fall will be the issue of extending the deadline for the Anti-terrorism Special Measures Law, which is going to expire in November. It is provided under this law that Japan dispatches its Maritime Self-Defense Force Warships to the Indian Ocean to continuously supply fuel to the U.S. and allied forces' marine vessels. It is regarded as an important symbol of the U.S.-Japan alliance. The old-time ruling LDP would pay little attention to voices of the opposition parties, but now that discussions for gradual step-by-step withdrawal of troops are being made even within the U.S., the LDP will have to avoid all-out confrontation with the Democratic Party and seek for a compromise including partial adjustments as some people are advocating.
Immediately after the election for the House of Councilors, Ozawa met with the U.S. Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer who had proposed this unusual talk with the Opposition leader, which indicates how big the repercussion of the election was.
If the Diet deliberations become more animated for both ruling and opposition parties, and create better conditions for the Diet to function as the center of Japanese politics, then the election for the House of Councilors in July 2007 will be remembered as a notable milestone for restoring authority to the Diet.
The Writer is former Chief Editorial Writer for Kyodo News Agency.
The result of the election not only highlighted the fortune of the two leaders of the rivaling political parties, but it also created an unprecedented tension in the relationship between the administration and legislature, the House of Councilors and the House of Representatives as well as the ruling and the opposition parties, heralding a new political development in Japan.
Last fall, favored by former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, Prime Minister Abe inherited huge political assets of two-thirds majority in the House of Representatives. Abe seemed to have got off to a good start by displaying his youthfulness as the first Japanese Prime Minister born after World War II. He is an advocate of the Constitutional amendment that has been a long-cherished political ambition of the LDP. His new administration gave us the impression that he was the champion to make the transition of power to a next generation in Japanese politics. After only ten months in office, however, he has come to face a massive defeat in his first national election. Hope changed into disappointment. Although Abe showed his firm determination to stay in office with efforts to suppress voices within his devastated LDP calling for his resignation, it would take a long time and require great efforts for him to get things under control and restore his leadership once again.
Most of all, the election result of " 6 wins and 23 losses" in single-seat districts in local regions was fatally serious. The reform-driven administration led by former Prime Minister Koizumi promoted globalization and rationalization of the Japanese economy, gaining wide support from the urban non-aligned voters. In the meantime, the rural economy has declined and it is believed that gaps have widened among regions as a result. Thus, strongholds of the LDP in rural constituencies that had assiduously been built by public works and agricultural subsidies were beginning to collapse.
Koizumi had told the nation that "I will finish off the old LDP that obstructs my reform." His tenacity exerted real influences in many parts of rural districts. Abe overlooked the fact that the political assets he had inherited had been seriously undermined and yet he failed to take appropriate measures. Throughout the election he maintained that he would continue Koizumi's reforms and, even after he learned of his defeat in the election, he claimed that his will to reform was being well understood by the people and there was no reason for him to step down.
It cannot be denied that Prime Minister Abe was a little too optimistic about the domestic situation and that there was a perception gap between he and other members of his own party. It is apparent that his political power base has rapidly been weakened.
Mr. Ozawa of the Democratic Party staked his political life on the election, burning the bridge behind him. By adroitly trying to capture the single-seat districts in the rural areas where voters were disillusioned by the LDP, he scored a sweeping victory. It is generally recognized, however, that post-election opinion polls show that Abe's LDP simply did too poorly in the election and that the election results do not necessarily mean that voters had expected a new administration led by the Democratic Party. It is extremely important, nevertheless, that for the first time under the current Constitution the Democratic Party has gained full control of the House of Councilors; it took the Presidency of the Upper House and the chairmanship of its steering committee. There is fair chance that this could introduce a new and possibly sanguine element, in the Diet proceedings and, as a consequence, in Japan's future political situation.
Under the circumstances, even if the Democratic Party seeks to force the government to dissolve the Lower House, by voting down or amending the Cabinet bills in the Upper House, it is unlikely that LDP accepts this challenge and call for general elections. The LDP would not risk general elections that might turn it into a minority party in the Lower House as well. The Constitution stipulates that when two Houses of the Diet make different decisions, the Lower House may overrule the decision of the Upper House by its two-thirds vote. The Upper House does not possess power to override the Lower House's decision. Political wisdom will eventually leads the LDP to find it unwise to override all the Upper House's decisions by its two-thirds vote. Given a divided Diet for some time to come, probably a new practice of seeking compromises through discussions in the Joint Committee composed of representatives of two Houses will become customary.
It is often said that under the Japanese parliamentary cabinet system, the ruling party tends to hasten to gain approval of Cabinet bills while the opposition parties simply try to prolong deliberations and to hold back the approval rather than to revise or modify the bills. In addition, the Upper House is frequently referred to as "a carbon copy of the Lower House." There are quite a few who lament over stultified Diet deliberations and the derogation of Diet members' authority. No doubt this lamentable situation resulted from the prolonged monopoly of the reins of government by the LDP as it had virtually maintained its one-party rule for a long time. The Democratic Party's dominance in the Upper House will invigorate the legislative functioning and significantly strengthen the opposition party's policymaking ability. The new situation may open up an important step forward for a smooth change of administration based on policies, which is after all the greatest essence of democracy.
Prime Minister Abe has already announced that he was going to respect the opposition party's opinions even more at Diet deliberations from now on. Mr. Heizo Takenaka, former Minister of Public Management, Home Affairs, Posts and Telecommunications and promoter of reformist policies under Koizumi's regime, said: "If the Democratic Party comes up with a good bill, we'll just buy it. Then, there will be a political turnaround to break down the collusion between government officials and Diet backers who work on behalf of special interests and benefit from their efforts."
One of the focal points in the Diet this fall will be the issue of extending the deadline for the Anti-terrorism Special Measures Law, which is going to expire in November. It is provided under this law that Japan dispatches its Maritime Self-Defense Force Warships to the Indian Ocean to continuously supply fuel to the U.S. and allied forces' marine vessels. It is regarded as an important symbol of the U.S.-Japan alliance. The old-time ruling LDP would pay little attention to voices of the opposition parties, but now that discussions for gradual step-by-step withdrawal of troops are being made even within the U.S., the LDP will have to avoid all-out confrontation with the Democratic Party and seek for a compromise including partial adjustments as some people are advocating.
Immediately after the election for the House of Councilors, Ozawa met with the U.S. Ambassador J. Thomas Schieffer who had proposed this unusual talk with the Opposition leader, which indicates how big the repercussion of the election was.
If the Diet deliberations become more animated for both ruling and opposition parties, and create better conditions for the Diet to function as the center of Japanese politics, then the election for the House of Councilors in July 2007 will be remembered as a notable milestone for restoring authority to the Diet.
The Writer is former Chief Editorial Writer for Kyodo News Agency.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
参院選のもたらした失望と希望
福原 亨一 / ジャーナリスト
2007年 8月 24日
7月29日の参院選で安倍自民党は惨敗し、小沢民主党が参院第一党の地位を確立した。この結果は攻守異なる立場にある二つの政党，二人の政治家の明暗をくっきりと描き出しただけでなく，行政府と立法府，衆院と参院，与党と野党、などの関係にこれまでになかった緊張をもたらし，日本政治の新しい発展を予感させる。
安倍首相は小泉前首相の寵愛を得て，昨秋、衆院議席の三分の二を占める巨大な政治資産を円満に継承、「戦後生まれの初めての首相」の若さを誇示し、自民党の宿願である憲法改正を公然と主張して，日本政治の世代交代を印象づける新政権の誕生だった。しかし，就任僅か十カ月、初めて臨んだ全国選挙に大敗し、期待は失望に変わった。衝撃に打ちのめされた自民党内の退陣論を封じ込め、首相続投の決意を貫いたものの，敗軍を収拾して政局の主導権を回復するには多くの努力と長い時間が必要だろう。
なによりも地方の一人区で６勝23敗という数字は重い。小泉前政権の改革路線が日本経済の国際化、合理化を推進し、都市型無党派層に大きく支持を広げた、と讃えられた裏で、しわ寄せを受けた地方経済は衰退し、地域格差は拡大したと受け取られた。地方に公共事業、農業補助金を呼び込んで築き上げてきた自民党の金城湯池は崩れ始めていた。
「改革を妨げる古い自民党をぶち壊す」と公言した前首相の執念は地方各地で現実になっていた。安倍首相は自らが継承した政治遺産が大きく蝕まれていた事実を見逃して対策を怠り，参院選を通じて「改革路線の継続」を唱え続け、敗北が確認された後も「我々の改革政策は理解されている」と強弁し，首相続投を主張する根拠とした。
首相の甘い情勢認識が国内，党内の世論からずれていたことは否定できず，首相の政治基盤は急速に弱まった。
民主党の小沢代表は背水の陣の覚悟で参院選に臨み，自民党の弱点を突く地方の一人区重視の作戦が的中して大勝を得た。各種世論調査を見ると安倍自民党の失点が大き過ぎただけで，民主党の政権構想に期待が集まったのではない，との解釈が一般的だ。それでも同党が参院の議長、議院運営委員長を握って完全に参院の主導権を握った、という現憲法下で初めての事態は極めて重要であり、今後の国会運営，ひいては政治情勢にこれまでにない新しい健康な要素を注入する可能性は期待できる。
現状では民主党が参院で内閣提出法案を否決，あるいは修正して政府を衆院解散・総選挙に追い込もうとしても、自民党が衆院でも少数派に転落する危険をおかして解散を受けて立つとは考えられない。憲法には両院が異なる議決を行った場合、三分の二の多数による再議決などの条件付きで衆院の優位が明記されており，参院の議決が衆院の議決を押し切って国会の議決となることはない。といって衆院の再議決も安易に繰り返されるものではなく，結局、両院がそれぞれの議決を両院協議会に持ち込んで妥協の成立に努める形が常態になっていくだろう。
議院内閣制をとるわが国の国会は，与党は内閣提出法案の成立を急ぐのが仕事，野党は法案の修正、改善よりも審議引き延ばし、成立阻止に熱中する、と表現されることが多い。さらに参院が「衆院のカーボンコピー」呼ばわりされる傾向と併せ、国会審議の形骸化，国会議員の権威低下を嘆く声も強い。自民党による事実上の一党支配が長く維持されてきたことが大きな原因であることは疑いなく，民主党の参院支配は国会の立法機能を著しく活性化し，野党の政策形成能力を著しく強化し，民主主義の最大の妙味である政策本位の円満な政権交代への展望を開く重要な一歩と位置づけられよう。
既に安倍首相は今後の国会審議で野党の意見をより尊重していくと表明した。小泉内閣で改革路線の推進役だった竹中平蔵元総務相は「参院で民主党がいい法案を出したら自民党は丸呑みすればよい，官僚と族議員の結託を打ち破る政策転換になる」と語った。
秋の国会の焦点の一つは、11月に期限切れとなるテロ対策特別措置法の延長問題。インド洋に自衛艦を派遣し，米軍はじめ多国籍軍の艦船に給油を続けるための同法は、日米同盟の象徴と理解され，従来の政府与党なら，野党の反対は無条件で排除を考えるところだが、肝心の米国で段階的撤兵論が公然と論議されるような状況のもとでは、民主党との全面対決を避け，一部修正など妥協も必要との声も出始めた。参院選の直後にシーファー米大使が小沢代表に異例の会談を申入れたのも、参院選の波紋の大きさを示す一例だ。
国会審議が与野党を包み込んで活性化し，国会が政治の中心舞台としての機能を強める契機となるなら， 2007年参院選は国会の権威回復の記念碑として記憶されるだろう。
（筆者は元共同通信論説委員。）
安倍首相は小泉前首相の寵愛を得て，昨秋、衆院議席の三分の二を占める巨大な政治資産を円満に継承、「戦後生まれの初めての首相」の若さを誇示し、自民党の宿願である憲法改正を公然と主張して，日本政治の世代交代を印象づける新政権の誕生だった。しかし，就任僅か十カ月、初めて臨んだ全国選挙に大敗し、期待は失望に変わった。衝撃に打ちのめされた自民党内の退陣論を封じ込め、首相続投の決意を貫いたものの，敗軍を収拾して政局の主導権を回復するには多くの努力と長い時間が必要だろう。
なによりも地方の一人区で６勝23敗という数字は重い。小泉前政権の改革路線が日本経済の国際化、合理化を推進し、都市型無党派層に大きく支持を広げた、と讃えられた裏で、しわ寄せを受けた地方経済は衰退し、地域格差は拡大したと受け取られた。地方に公共事業、農業補助金を呼び込んで築き上げてきた自民党の金城湯池は崩れ始めていた。
「改革を妨げる古い自民党をぶち壊す」と公言した前首相の執念は地方各地で現実になっていた。安倍首相は自らが継承した政治遺産が大きく蝕まれていた事実を見逃して対策を怠り，参院選を通じて「改革路線の継続」を唱え続け、敗北が確認された後も「我々の改革政策は理解されている」と強弁し，首相続投を主張する根拠とした。
首相の甘い情勢認識が国内，党内の世論からずれていたことは否定できず，首相の政治基盤は急速に弱まった。
民主党の小沢代表は背水の陣の覚悟で参院選に臨み，自民党の弱点を突く地方の一人区重視の作戦が的中して大勝を得た。各種世論調査を見ると安倍自民党の失点が大き過ぎただけで，民主党の政権構想に期待が集まったのではない，との解釈が一般的だ。それでも同党が参院の議長、議院運営委員長を握って完全に参院の主導権を握った、という現憲法下で初めての事態は極めて重要であり、今後の国会運営，ひいては政治情勢にこれまでにない新しい健康な要素を注入する可能性は期待できる。
現状では民主党が参院で内閣提出法案を否決，あるいは修正して政府を衆院解散・総選挙に追い込もうとしても、自民党が衆院でも少数派に転落する危険をおかして解散を受けて立つとは考えられない。憲法には両院が異なる議決を行った場合、三分の二の多数による再議決などの条件付きで衆院の優位が明記されており，参院の議決が衆院の議決を押し切って国会の議決となることはない。といって衆院の再議決も安易に繰り返されるものではなく，結局、両院がそれぞれの議決を両院協議会に持ち込んで妥協の成立に努める形が常態になっていくだろう。
議院内閣制をとるわが国の国会は，与党は内閣提出法案の成立を急ぐのが仕事，野党は法案の修正、改善よりも審議引き延ばし、成立阻止に熱中する、と表現されることが多い。さらに参院が「衆院のカーボンコピー」呼ばわりされる傾向と併せ、国会審議の形骸化，国会議員の権威低下を嘆く声も強い。自民党による事実上の一党支配が長く維持されてきたことが大きな原因であることは疑いなく，民主党の参院支配は国会の立法機能を著しく活性化し，野党の政策形成能力を著しく強化し，民主主義の最大の妙味である政策本位の円満な政権交代への展望を開く重要な一歩と位置づけられよう。
既に安倍首相は今後の国会審議で野党の意見をより尊重していくと表明した。小泉内閣で改革路線の推進役だった竹中平蔵元総務相は「参院で民主党がいい法案を出したら自民党は丸呑みすればよい，官僚と族議員の結託を打ち破る政策転換になる」と語った。
秋の国会の焦点の一つは、11月に期限切れとなるテロ対策特別措置法の延長問題。インド洋に自衛艦を派遣し，米軍はじめ多国籍軍の艦船に給油を続けるための同法は、日米同盟の象徴と理解され，従来の政府与党なら，野党の反対は無条件で排除を考えるところだが、肝心の米国で段階的撤兵論が公然と論議されるような状況のもとでは、民主党との全面対決を避け，一部修正など妥協も必要との声も出始めた。参院選の直後にシーファー米大使が小沢代表に異例の会談を申入れたのも、参院選の波紋の大きさを示す一例だ。
国会審議が与野党を包み込んで活性化し，国会が政治の中心舞台としての機能を強める契機となるなら， 2007年参院選は国会の権威回復の記念碑として記憶されるだろう。
（筆者は元共同通信論説委員。）
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟