Pay More Attention to Energy Problems in Asia
KANEKO Kumao / Professor at Tokai University
June 25, 2002
When we consider the energy/environmental problems the world will face in the 21st century, there is a general agreement on the importance of their Asian dimensions. In the final analysis, Asia is the region where the biggest economic growth is expected and the largest amount of energy will be needed to sustain that growth.
First, let us focus on China, a country with the world's largest population. China's main source of energy is coal which constitutes about 80 % of the country's primary energy consumption. In order to sustain an incredible speed of her industrialization, immense amounts of coal are being burnt every day, emitting a tremendous quantity of exhaust fumes; an estimate tells us that within the next twenty years, CO2 emissions in China will overtake those of the United States. The prevailing westerlies would eventually cause serious acid rainfalls in the Japanese Archipelago and Korean Peninsula.
Even more serious than the environmental issue, however, will be the energy situation. While China's industrialization is concentrated in the coastal regions, the coal is mined far away from the coast in the north and central Chinese regions. As the result, an immense amount of money and time has to be spent on the transportation of coals in China. Under such circumstance, China began a large-scale shift from coal to oil from the beginning of the 90s.
Although China now is the 7th largest oil producing nation in the world, her domestic oil supply has hardly kept up with the growing demand. As the result, China started importing large quantities of oil from the Middle East, having become a net oil importer in 1995.
Likewise, Indonesia, the largest oil producing nation in Asia, has not been able to meet her internal energy requirements solely by domestic oil, and has recently begun increasing the quantity of imported oil from the Middle East. It is expected that the country will become a net oil importer within the next several years.
Consequently, Asian nations, with the exception of Malaysia and Brunei, will come, sooner or later, to engage themselves in a fierce scramble for Middle East oil, thereby increasing the risks of regional conflicts and confrontations.
Keeping this prospect in mind, China and many of the Southeast Asian countries have turned their attention to the off-shore oil and natural gas in the South China Sea. They are fast prospecting and developing their production in the region. As a result, the struggle for the possession of the Spratlys and Paracels Islands has been increasing in intensity. If the situation escalates even further and develops into military confrontations, the peace and security of the whole of Southeast Asia will be at jeopardy.
As many oil and LNG tankers destined for Japan, Korea and Taiwan pass through this sea area, in such a critical situation serious consequences will be unavoidable for these nations, too. In the Malacca Straits, the main passage route for tankers bound for Japan, in addition to frequent collisions and shipwrecks, piracy is rampant in recent years. Safe passage through the Straits has thus become a serious concern for the energy security of Japan and Korea.
As seen above, throughout Asia there are many areas that can endanger the assured access to energy resources. Under the circumstances, there clearly exists an urgent need to strengthen preventive mechanisms, such as a regional oil stockpiling system or an emergency mutual assistance scheme, in preparation for a large-scale energy crisis due to the disruption of oil supplies. Simultaneously, there is a clear need to conserve or decrease the use of fossil fuels such as oil and coal, and to increase the development of renewable natural energy such as solar, wind, geothermal and bio- mass.
As a technologically advanced country, Japan should take more leadership in these areas. In January 2002, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi came up with a plan for regional cooperation to strengthen energy security in Asia in his policy speech in Singapore, which was entitled "Japan and ASEAN in East Asia: In Search of Sincere and Open Partnership". It is strongly hoped that this proposal would materialize as soon as possible.
There emerges a growing interest in nuclear energy among some of Asian countries as a viable alternative to fossil fuels. Already in Northeast Asia, Japan, Korea and Taiwan are generating substantial electricity from nuclear power plants; the ratio of nuclear generated electricity in the total amount of generated electricity is 35 % for Japan, 41 % for Korea and 24 % for Taiwan respectively. China has also started constructing nuclear power plants at a rapid pace, although at the moment only 1 % of the total energy generation in China comes from nuclear energy.
Furthermore, in the past several years, a few countries in Southeast Asia have also begun to consider the possibility of introducing nuclear energy. Among these countries, in particular, Vietnam has been asking Japan for technical and financial help for nuclear power generation. In the past, the Japanese government was reluctant to provide such assistance in this area. There is a clear need for Japan to respond more positively to such requests, as in the increasingly interdependent world of today it is evident that the peace and security can no longer be assured for Japan alone regardless of the regional peace and security as a whole.
Nuclear energy must be considered more importantly in Asia not only from the viewpoint of energy security but also from the viewpoint of global environmental protection since it does not emit CO2. If, in addition to Japan, Korea and Taiwan already engaged in nuclear power, populous countries like China, India and Indonesia generate required electricity more from nuclear power, thereby decreasing the consumption of fossil fuels, the regional and global balance of energy demand and supply will be alleviated significantly. More nuclear power generation in Asia will certainly help lessen the deterioration of the global environment, particularly, global warming.
The author is Professor at Tokai University and concurrently President of the Japan Council on Energy, Environment and Security (JCEES). He is a former career diplomat, who served as the first Director of the Nuclear Energy Division of the Japanese Foreign Ministry in the 70s-80s.
First, let us focus on China, a country with the world's largest population. China's main source of energy is coal which constitutes about 80 % of the country's primary energy consumption. In order to sustain an incredible speed of her industrialization, immense amounts of coal are being burnt every day, emitting a tremendous quantity of exhaust fumes; an estimate tells us that within the next twenty years, CO2 emissions in China will overtake those of the United States. The prevailing westerlies would eventually cause serious acid rainfalls in the Japanese Archipelago and Korean Peninsula.
Even more serious than the environmental issue, however, will be the energy situation. While China's industrialization is concentrated in the coastal regions, the coal is mined far away from the coast in the north and central Chinese regions. As the result, an immense amount of money and time has to be spent on the transportation of coals in China. Under such circumstance, China began a large-scale shift from coal to oil from the beginning of the 90s.
Although China now is the 7th largest oil producing nation in the world, her domestic oil supply has hardly kept up with the growing demand. As the result, China started importing large quantities of oil from the Middle East, having become a net oil importer in 1995.
Likewise, Indonesia, the largest oil producing nation in Asia, has not been able to meet her internal energy requirements solely by domestic oil, and has recently begun increasing the quantity of imported oil from the Middle East. It is expected that the country will become a net oil importer within the next several years.
Consequently, Asian nations, with the exception of Malaysia and Brunei, will come, sooner or later, to engage themselves in a fierce scramble for Middle East oil, thereby increasing the risks of regional conflicts and confrontations.
Keeping this prospect in mind, China and many of the Southeast Asian countries have turned their attention to the off-shore oil and natural gas in the South China Sea. They are fast prospecting and developing their production in the region. As a result, the struggle for the possession of the Spratlys and Paracels Islands has been increasing in intensity. If the situation escalates even further and develops into military confrontations, the peace and security of the whole of Southeast Asia will be at jeopardy.
As many oil and LNG tankers destined for Japan, Korea and Taiwan pass through this sea area, in such a critical situation serious consequences will be unavoidable for these nations, too. In the Malacca Straits, the main passage route for tankers bound for Japan, in addition to frequent collisions and shipwrecks, piracy is rampant in recent years. Safe passage through the Straits has thus become a serious concern for the energy security of Japan and Korea.
As seen above, throughout Asia there are many areas that can endanger the assured access to energy resources. Under the circumstances, there clearly exists an urgent need to strengthen preventive mechanisms, such as a regional oil stockpiling system or an emergency mutual assistance scheme, in preparation for a large-scale energy crisis due to the disruption of oil supplies. Simultaneously, there is a clear need to conserve or decrease the use of fossil fuels such as oil and coal, and to increase the development of renewable natural energy such as solar, wind, geothermal and bio- mass.
As a technologically advanced country, Japan should take more leadership in these areas. In January 2002, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi came up with a plan for regional cooperation to strengthen energy security in Asia in his policy speech in Singapore, which was entitled "Japan and ASEAN in East Asia: In Search of Sincere and Open Partnership". It is strongly hoped that this proposal would materialize as soon as possible.
There emerges a growing interest in nuclear energy among some of Asian countries as a viable alternative to fossil fuels. Already in Northeast Asia, Japan, Korea and Taiwan are generating substantial electricity from nuclear power plants; the ratio of nuclear generated electricity in the total amount of generated electricity is 35 % for Japan, 41 % for Korea and 24 % for Taiwan respectively. China has also started constructing nuclear power plants at a rapid pace, although at the moment only 1 % of the total energy generation in China comes from nuclear energy.
Furthermore, in the past several years, a few countries in Southeast Asia have also begun to consider the possibility of introducing nuclear energy. Among these countries, in particular, Vietnam has been asking Japan for technical and financial help for nuclear power generation. In the past, the Japanese government was reluctant to provide such assistance in this area. There is a clear need for Japan to respond more positively to such requests, as in the increasingly interdependent world of today it is evident that the peace and security can no longer be assured for Japan alone regardless of the regional peace and security as a whole.
Nuclear energy must be considered more importantly in Asia not only from the viewpoint of energy security but also from the viewpoint of global environmental protection since it does not emit CO2. If, in addition to Japan, Korea and Taiwan already engaged in nuclear power, populous countries like China, India and Indonesia generate required electricity more from nuclear power, thereby decreasing the consumption of fossil fuels, the regional and global balance of energy demand and supply will be alleviated significantly. More nuclear power generation in Asia will certainly help lessen the deterioration of the global environment, particularly, global warming.
The author is Professor at Tokai University and concurrently President of the Japan Council on Energy, Environment and Security (JCEES). He is a former career diplomat, who served as the first Director of the Nuclear Energy Division of the Japanese Foreign Ministry in the 70s-80s.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
アジアのエネルギー問題にもっと注意せよ
金子 熊夫 / 東海大学教授
2002年 6月 25日
将来の日本と世界のエネルギー・環境問題を考えるとき、アジアが極めて重要な要因となることは衆目の一致するところだ。
まず中国について。同国の最大のエネルギー源は石炭で、一次エネルギーの80%を占める。驚異的なテンポで工業化が進む裏で、毎日膨大な量の石炭が燃されているが、そこから生ずる排ガスも当然膨大な量になる(20年以内にCO2排出量では米国を追い越す)。それが酸性雨となり、偏西風に乗って日本列島や朝鮮半島を直撃する可能性が高い。
しかし、そうした環境面以上に深刻なのは、エネルギー面である。工業化は沿岸地域に集中しているのに、石炭は沿岸から遠く離れた内陸部(華北、華中地域)で産出されるので、国内輸送に莫大な時間とコストがかかる。そこで、同国では1990年代初め以来石炭から石油への転換が大々的に進んでいる。その結果、国内の石油だけでは需要を賄いきれず、世界第7位の産油国でありながら、中東から大量に石油を輸入している。
アジア最大の産油国であるインドネシアでも、国産石油だけでは国内のエネルギー需要に追いつかず、近年中東からの石油輸入量を増やしている。これらの結果、早晩中東石油を巡ってアジア諸国間で激しい争奪戦が繰り広げられる惧れが多分にある。
他方、こうした状況の中で、中国や東南アジア諸国は南シナ海の海底石油や天然ガスにも目をつけ、その開発を急いでいる。その結果、南沙(Spratlys)、西沙(Paracels)諸島の領有権争いが一層激化しつつある。もし今後それがエスカレートし、武力衝突に発展すれば、直ちに東南アジア全体の平和と安全が危機に陥るが、同海域をタンカールート(シーレーン)とする日本や韓国、台湾にとっても重大な影響を免れないであろう。
加えて、日本向けタンカールートの最大の関門であるマラッカ海峡では、衝突や座礁事故のほかに、近年海賊行為が頻発しており、これが日本のエネルギー安全保障上重大な問題となっている。
このように、エネルギー資源を巡る紛争の火種はアジア各地に横たわっているが、こうした状況の中で、石油の供給杜絶による大規模なエネルギー危機を回避するための予防措置(例えば、地域的石油備蓄体制や緊急時融通体制等)の整備を早急に図る必要がある。
同時に、石油、石炭などの化石燃料の使用をなるべく減らし、その代わりに太陽光、風力、バイオマスなどの再生可能な自然エネルギーの開発を一層促進する必要がある。技術先進国として日本は、これらの分野で一層指導力を発揮すべきだ。小泉総理は、本年1月シンガポールでの政策演説「東アジアの中の日本とASEAN:率直なパートナーシップを求めて」の中で、アジアのエネルギー安全保障強化のための地域協力構想を提唱したが、その早期具体化が期待される。
他方、石油代替エネルギー開発のもう1つの選択肢として、原子力発電への関心が一部のアジア諸国の間で高まっている。周知のように、北東アジアでは、日本(総発電量の35%が原子力)、韓国(41%)、台湾(24%)がすでに本格的な原子力発電国となっており、中国(約1%)も近年急ピッチで原発建設を進めている。さらに、ここ数年来、東南アジアでも原子力発電導入を前向きに考える国がいくつか現れている。
こうした国々、とりわけベトナムからは、アジア随一の原子力技術先進国である日本に対して、技術面、資金面での協力要請が寄せられている。これに対し日本政府は従来消極的だったが、今後はできるだけ前向きに対処する必要がある。「一国平和主義」や「一安全主義」がもはや通用しないことは明らかだからである。
原子力発電は、アジアにおけるエネルギー安全保障の観点からだけでなく、CO2を排出しないという点で、地球環境保護の観点からも一層重視される。中国、インド、インドネシアのような人口大国が、原子力発電を行ない、その分だけでも石油、天然ガスの消費量を減らせば、世界のエネルギー需給バランスを緩和するだけでなく、地球環境、とりわけ地球温暖化防止にも役に立つからである。
(筆者は東海大学教授。エネルギー環境外交研究会会長。元外交官。)
まず中国について。同国の最大のエネルギー源は石炭で、一次エネルギーの80%を占める。驚異的なテンポで工業化が進む裏で、毎日膨大な量の石炭が燃されているが、そこから生ずる排ガスも当然膨大な量になる(20年以内にCO2排出量では米国を追い越す)。それが酸性雨となり、偏西風に乗って日本列島や朝鮮半島を直撃する可能性が高い。
しかし、そうした環境面以上に深刻なのは、エネルギー面である。工業化は沿岸地域に集中しているのに、石炭は沿岸から遠く離れた内陸部(華北、華中地域)で産出されるので、国内輸送に莫大な時間とコストがかかる。そこで、同国では1990年代初め以来石炭から石油への転換が大々的に進んでいる。その結果、国内の石油だけでは需要を賄いきれず、世界第7位の産油国でありながら、中東から大量に石油を輸入している。
アジア最大の産油国であるインドネシアでも、国産石油だけでは国内のエネルギー需要に追いつかず、近年中東からの石油輸入量を増やしている。これらの結果、早晩中東石油を巡ってアジア諸国間で激しい争奪戦が繰り広げられる惧れが多分にある。
他方、こうした状況の中で、中国や東南アジア諸国は南シナ海の海底石油や天然ガスにも目をつけ、その開発を急いでいる。その結果、南沙(Spratlys)、西沙(Paracels)諸島の領有権争いが一層激化しつつある。もし今後それがエスカレートし、武力衝突に発展すれば、直ちに東南アジア全体の平和と安全が危機に陥るが、同海域をタンカールート(シーレーン)とする日本や韓国、台湾にとっても重大な影響を免れないであろう。
加えて、日本向けタンカールートの最大の関門であるマラッカ海峡では、衝突や座礁事故のほかに、近年海賊行為が頻発しており、これが日本のエネルギー安全保障上重大な問題となっている。
このように、エネルギー資源を巡る紛争の火種はアジア各地に横たわっているが、こうした状況の中で、石油の供給杜絶による大規模なエネルギー危機を回避するための予防措置(例えば、地域的石油備蓄体制や緊急時融通体制等)の整備を早急に図る必要がある。
同時に、石油、石炭などの化石燃料の使用をなるべく減らし、その代わりに太陽光、風力、バイオマスなどの再生可能な自然エネルギーの開発を一層促進する必要がある。技術先進国として日本は、これらの分野で一層指導力を発揮すべきだ。小泉総理は、本年1月シンガポールでの政策演説「東アジアの中の日本とASEAN:率直なパートナーシップを求めて」の中で、アジアのエネルギー安全保障強化のための地域協力構想を提唱したが、その早期具体化が期待される。
他方、石油代替エネルギー開発のもう1つの選択肢として、原子力発電への関心が一部のアジア諸国の間で高まっている。周知のように、北東アジアでは、日本(総発電量の35%が原子力)、韓国(41%)、台湾(24%)がすでに本格的な原子力発電国となっており、中国(約1%)も近年急ピッチで原発建設を進めている。さらに、ここ数年来、東南アジアでも原子力発電導入を前向きに考える国がいくつか現れている。
こうした国々、とりわけベトナムからは、アジア随一の原子力技術先進国である日本に対して、技術面、資金面での協力要請が寄せられている。これに対し日本政府は従来消極的だったが、今後はできるだけ前向きに対処する必要がある。「一国平和主義」や「一安全主義」がもはや通用しないことは明らかだからである。
原子力発電は、アジアにおけるエネルギー安全保障の観点からだけでなく、CO2を排出しないという点で、地球環境保護の観点からも一層重視される。中国、インド、インドネシアのような人口大国が、原子力発電を行ない、その分だけでも石油、天然ガスの消費量を減らせば、世界のエネルギー需給バランスを緩和するだけでなく、地球環境、とりわけ地球温暖化防止にも役に立つからである。
(筆者は東海大学教授。エネルギー環境外交研究会会長。元外交官。)
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟