China -the Emerging Superpower, and Japan's Future Course
FUJINO Fumiaki / Advisor, Itochu Corporation
December 16, 2002
There is a famous poem titled "Climbing the Stork Pavilion" by Wang Chih-huan, a poet of the Tang Dynasty. In English translation, it reads thus: "White sunlight disappears from the hillside,/ Yellow River flows on into the sea./ Desiring to scan the thousand-mile vista/ I climb another storey of the pagoda." The 16th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party has ended. How should we view the outcome?
My assessment is that China has "climbed to a greater height" towards the 21st century. The national leadership has almost completely been transferred to the next generation. This is the so-called ‘Fourth Generation’ that has descended from the Mao Zedong-Deng Xiao Ping-Jiang Zemin line. Having succeeded the Reform and Open Policy of Deng Xiao Ping, the Third Generation led by Jiang Zemin has accomplished much, realizing the return of Hong Kong and Macao, gaining membership to the World Trade Organization in 2001, holding the Asia-Pacific Economic Organization in Shanghai and bringing the 2008 Olympics to Beijing, thus elevating China to the global stage before handing over the reins to the Fourth Generation. Their achievement is worthy of high acclaim.
The Fourth Generation led by Hu Jintao is a generation that has no first-hand experience of the Revolutionary War - a highly educated group of men who are suited for the job of setting forth into the new world of the 21st century. It is also notable that the political system centered on the Communist Party is moving in the direction of reform. The new, rejuvenated Party has taken a step towards reform by offering membership to private entrepreneurs. This marks a major turning-point for the Communist Party, which has been characterized as a dictatorship by a political party for the proletariat, and to ensure that it takes root without hitch, Jiang Zemin will remain in his post of Central Military Commission chairman. The decision is aimed at realizing a smooth transition, and shouldn't be viewed as his obsession with power. He is likely to hand the post over to the younger generation in a year or two.
The Fourth Generation will endeavor to create a well-balanced and stable society – a "Well-off Society" – towards the goal of building China into a modern superpower. To that end, they will proceed with the full-fledged development of western regions that have lagged behind, and concurrently promote structural reform of the rural regions and urbanization on a nationwide scale. Once they succeed in transforming China - a country with a 1.3 billion population - into a modern, "well-off" society, it won't be long until China emerges as a superpower comparable to America as a continental nation. Bolstered by enormous domestic demand, it shouldn't be difficult for its economy to maintain an annual growth rate of 7%.
In the event, China will come forward with its traditional value system, initiating a new tide within the global order. The rise of Chinese civilization, strongly colored by Confucian values, will set the world on course towards a coexistence of different values. Thus a new post-Cold War order will begin to take shape early on in the 21st century. Asia is likely to cluster around China, resulting in a tri-polar world comprising America, Asia and Europe - including Russia, and China is expected to exert an overwhelming presence.
What course should Japan take? Will it position itself as a member of Asia, champion Western values, or seek yet another, independent course of its own? As China rises to prominence, where will Japan and the Japanese people find their identity? For the first time since World War II, we will be forced to choose. The choice will be a difficult one to make, but we should start by seeking an honest exchange of views with our neighbor China, the rising superpower. Our first task should be to develop a dialogue, instead of engaging in narrow-minded rivalries such as that over the signing of Free Trade Agreements with ASEAN nations. Now is the time for the Japanese to demonstrate such magnanimity.
The writer is Advisor and General Manager of the Institute of China Studies, Itochu Corporation.
My assessment is that China has "climbed to a greater height" towards the 21st century. The national leadership has almost completely been transferred to the next generation. This is the so-called ‘Fourth Generation’ that has descended from the Mao Zedong-Deng Xiao Ping-Jiang Zemin line. Having succeeded the Reform and Open Policy of Deng Xiao Ping, the Third Generation led by Jiang Zemin has accomplished much, realizing the return of Hong Kong and Macao, gaining membership to the World Trade Organization in 2001, holding the Asia-Pacific Economic Organization in Shanghai and bringing the 2008 Olympics to Beijing, thus elevating China to the global stage before handing over the reins to the Fourth Generation. Their achievement is worthy of high acclaim.
The Fourth Generation led by Hu Jintao is a generation that has no first-hand experience of the Revolutionary War - a highly educated group of men who are suited for the job of setting forth into the new world of the 21st century. It is also notable that the political system centered on the Communist Party is moving in the direction of reform. The new, rejuvenated Party has taken a step towards reform by offering membership to private entrepreneurs. This marks a major turning-point for the Communist Party, which has been characterized as a dictatorship by a political party for the proletariat, and to ensure that it takes root without hitch, Jiang Zemin will remain in his post of Central Military Commission chairman. The decision is aimed at realizing a smooth transition, and shouldn't be viewed as his obsession with power. He is likely to hand the post over to the younger generation in a year or two.
The Fourth Generation will endeavor to create a well-balanced and stable society – a "Well-off Society" – towards the goal of building China into a modern superpower. To that end, they will proceed with the full-fledged development of western regions that have lagged behind, and concurrently promote structural reform of the rural regions and urbanization on a nationwide scale. Once they succeed in transforming China - a country with a 1.3 billion population - into a modern, "well-off" society, it won't be long until China emerges as a superpower comparable to America as a continental nation. Bolstered by enormous domestic demand, it shouldn't be difficult for its economy to maintain an annual growth rate of 7%.
In the event, China will come forward with its traditional value system, initiating a new tide within the global order. The rise of Chinese civilization, strongly colored by Confucian values, will set the world on course towards a coexistence of different values. Thus a new post-Cold War order will begin to take shape early on in the 21st century. Asia is likely to cluster around China, resulting in a tri-polar world comprising America, Asia and Europe - including Russia, and China is expected to exert an overwhelming presence.
What course should Japan take? Will it position itself as a member of Asia, champion Western values, or seek yet another, independent course of its own? As China rises to prominence, where will Japan and the Japanese people find their identity? For the first time since World War II, we will be forced to choose. The choice will be a difficult one to make, but we should start by seeking an honest exchange of views with our neighbor China, the rising superpower. Our first task should be to develop a dialogue, instead of engaging in narrow-minded rivalries such as that over the signing of Free Trade Agreements with ASEAN nations. Now is the time for the Japanese to demonstrate such magnanimity.
The writer is Advisor and General Manager of the Institute of China Studies, Itochu Corporation.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
大国への道を行く中国と日本の進路
藤野 文晤 / 伊藤忠商事株式会社顧問・中国研究所長
2002年 12月 16日
唐の詩人王之渙に「鸛鵲楼に登る」と題する有名な詩がある。平文で書くと「白日山に依りて尽き、黄河海に入りて流る。千里の目を窮めんと欲し、更に上る一層の楼」である。中国共産党第16回党大会が終わった。この大会をどの様に見るか。
中国は21世紀に向かって「更に一層の楼を上った」と私は評価する。国家の指導陣はほぼ完全に次世代に交代した。毛沢東・鄧小平・江沢民に続く所謂第四世代である。江沢民氏を中核とする第三世代は鄧小平氏の改革開放路線を引継ぎ、香港・マカオの返還を実現し、2001年WTOへの加入、APECの上海開催、2008年北京オリンピック開催などの実績を挙げ、中国を世界の檜舞台に押上げて第四世代に引継いだ。この功績は高く評価されてよい。
胡錦涛氏を中心とする第四世代は中国の革命戦争を経験していない世代であり、高学歴の、21世紀の新しい世界に打って出るに相応しい群像である。もう一つ注目すべきは中国共産党を中心とする政治体制改革が動き出したことである。新しい若返った共産党は民営企業家を党員に迎えるという改革に一歩踏み出した。一党独裁のプロレタリア政党と云われた共産党の大転換であり、これを順調に定着させる為に江沢民氏は党軍事委員会主任のポストに留任したが、これは歴史的な転換をスムーズに実現する為であり、権力に固執したとの指摘は当たるまい。何れ1―２年で若い世代に引継ぐだろう。
第四世代は近代大国中国の形成を目指して均衡のある安定した社会の実現を目ざす（“小康社会”）。その為に発展の遅れている西部の開発を本格的に進め、同時に農村の構造改革と全土の幅広い都市化を推進する。13億人の中国が近代的な小康の社会を実現すれば、やがて近い将来アメリカに匹敵する大陸国家としての大国中国が明確な姿を現わしてくるだろう。経済は巨大な内需に支えられて年平均７％の成長を持続して行くのは困難ではないと思われる。
中国は中国の伝統的価値観をもって登場し、世界の秩序に新たな潮流を引起こすことになる。儒教的価値観を色濃く持った中華文明の台頭により、世界は異なる価値観の共存に向かう。そして21世紀初頭に於いて冷戦後の新しい秩序が形成され始めるだろう。アジアは中国を中核としてまとまる方向に動き、アメリカ、アジア、欧州（含ロシア）の三極が並立することになるだろうが、中国の存在は極めて大きくなるだろう。
日本はどうするか。アジアの一員としての立場に立つのか、欧米の価値観の一翼をになうのか、否、どこにも属さない独自の第三の道を模索するのか。中国の台頭と共に、わが国、民族は自己のアイデンティティーをどこに求めるか。戦後初めての選択を迫られることになるだろう。この選択は困難に充ちたものになるだろうが、先ず台頭する隣りの大国中国と腹を割った意思の疎通が計られるべきではないか。ASEAN諸国とのFTA締結をお互いに張り合う様な狭い量見でなく、日中の話合いが先ずなされるべきである。日本人はそれ位の心の寛さを今こそ見せるべきであろう。
（筆者は伊藤忠商事株式会社顧問、中国研究所長）
中国は21世紀に向かって「更に一層の楼を上った」と私は評価する。国家の指導陣はほぼ完全に次世代に交代した。毛沢東・鄧小平・江沢民に続く所謂第四世代である。江沢民氏を中核とする第三世代は鄧小平氏の改革開放路線を引継ぎ、香港・マカオの返還を実現し、2001年WTOへの加入、APECの上海開催、2008年北京オリンピック開催などの実績を挙げ、中国を世界の檜舞台に押上げて第四世代に引継いだ。この功績は高く評価されてよい。
胡錦涛氏を中心とする第四世代は中国の革命戦争を経験していない世代であり、高学歴の、21世紀の新しい世界に打って出るに相応しい群像である。もう一つ注目すべきは中国共産党を中心とする政治体制改革が動き出したことである。新しい若返った共産党は民営企業家を党員に迎えるという改革に一歩踏み出した。一党独裁のプロレタリア政党と云われた共産党の大転換であり、これを順調に定着させる為に江沢民氏は党軍事委員会主任のポストに留任したが、これは歴史的な転換をスムーズに実現する為であり、権力に固執したとの指摘は当たるまい。何れ1―２年で若い世代に引継ぐだろう。
第四世代は近代大国中国の形成を目指して均衡のある安定した社会の実現を目ざす（“小康社会”）。その為に発展の遅れている西部の開発を本格的に進め、同時に農村の構造改革と全土の幅広い都市化を推進する。13億人の中国が近代的な小康の社会を実現すれば、やがて近い将来アメリカに匹敵する大陸国家としての大国中国が明確な姿を現わしてくるだろう。経済は巨大な内需に支えられて年平均７％の成長を持続して行くのは困難ではないと思われる。
中国は中国の伝統的価値観をもって登場し、世界の秩序に新たな潮流を引起こすことになる。儒教的価値観を色濃く持った中華文明の台頭により、世界は異なる価値観の共存に向かう。そして21世紀初頭に於いて冷戦後の新しい秩序が形成され始めるだろう。アジアは中国を中核としてまとまる方向に動き、アメリカ、アジア、欧州（含ロシア）の三極が並立することになるだろうが、中国の存在は極めて大きくなるだろう。
日本はどうするか。アジアの一員としての立場に立つのか、欧米の価値観の一翼をになうのか、否、どこにも属さない独自の第三の道を模索するのか。中国の台頭と共に、わが国、民族は自己のアイデンティティーをどこに求めるか。戦後初めての選択を迫られることになるだろう。この選択は困難に充ちたものになるだろうが、先ず台頭する隣りの大国中国と腹を割った意思の疎通が計られるべきではないか。ASEAN諸国とのFTA締結をお互いに張り合う様な狭い量見でなく、日中の話合いが先ずなされるべきである。日本人はそれ位の心の寛さを今こそ見せるべきであろう。
（筆者は伊藤忠商事株式会社顧問、中国研究所長）
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