Beware of Changing America
HIRAIZUMI Wataru / President, Kajima Institute of International Peace
June 6, 2003
When an epoch making event occurs, contemporaries often fail to realize it. However, today, people around the world feel in their bones that the military operation of the United States in Iraq has ushered in a new era in history.
Some twenty centuries ago, the three empires - Rome, Han, and Persia- reigned side by side over the rest of the world. Today, the U.S. has no rival. For the first time in history, the world is dominated by a single nation endowed with overwhelming military power and a ubiquitous civilization of powerful appeal.
The military power of the United States is a result of enormous national efforts made ceaselessly through decades in the aftermath of bitter American experiences in Korea and Vietnam. The extraordinary performance of the U.S. military in Iraq is solidly based on some of the most advanced scientific and technical achievements of the day. The war itself has been shortened to the limit, bringing the whole action closer to a "clean" surgical operation which succeeds in eliminating solely the nerve center of the adversary.
On the other hand, the United States has succeeded in building up an efficient capability of monitoring, worldwide, research and development of higher military technology in other countries. For quite sometime, there is little likelihood of any other country becoming capable of opposing frontally the U.S. military power.
The firm establishment of American military hegemony over the rest of the world has transformed the foundations on which international society has been in existence since the birth of modern nation-states system.
1) The United Nations will have virtually lost its independent authority as the guarantor of security in international society.
One of the most salient characters of the U.N. is that small nations are always in the majority there. When big powers were in opposition among them and when their respective military power stood in rough balance, the U.N. could and did have its own role to play. (the case of the Korean War)
However, once a superpower succeeds, solo, in militarily dominating the world and, consequently, there is no longer any rival force against it, then the U.N.'s role will necessarily be a limited one.
In the case of the Iraq operation, the U.S. did not ask the Security Council for an additional approval of its armed action. From now on, cases will become frequent where an action of the Security Council will not be sought for even in face of serious international security problems.
2) The U.S. will ask nations to coordinate with the U.S. their international security policy including their policy against terrorism.
3) There will be cases where the U.S. will ask nations to agree to disclose the extent of their research and development in sensitive military technology such as relates to nuclear, chemical and bio-chemical weapons, ballistic missiles and anti-ballistic missiles. (Such requests may be made to North Korea, Iran, and Syria but might also be made to China and Russia as well.)
4) The on-going process of globalization in world economy will be accelerated and states will have less power and authority to control the economy nationally.
5) There will gradually emerge concentric zones in the world corresponding to the degree of political as well as economic association of nations with the U.S.
As Americans become more aware of the overwhelming military might of their nation, America and Americans will change. The American government will also change and will tend to see itself as something closer to the de facto world government. Its actions will no longer be the same as before.
For Japan, one of the countries which have considered it important to coordinate their major policy decisions with those of the U.S., it has never been easy to exert influence, even to a small degree, on the U.S. policy decision-making. There has been only the time-honored "diplomatic channel" at their disposal.
It would be increasingly important for nations to have numerous and more intimate means of expressing their views and positions to U.S. leaders about major policy decisions of international bearing before the U.S. firmly makes up her stand on them.
The establishment of new mechanisms involving the legislative branches of the nations will have become necessary. Studies of recent history of various European organs created in the process of European Integration will be of help.
The Cold War, which turned out to be not an altogether difficult period for Japan, is now definitively at an end. In this age of vast change in the world situation, a nation's foreign policy will have to be carefully studied, but also boldly and swiftly executed. They say that errors in domestic policy can be corrected but errors in foreign affairs cannot be mended. It is expected that not only the members of the government but also leaders of different political parties take care not to make an error of judgment in the foreign policy decisions at this important juncture.
The writer is a former diplomat and was, for long, member of the House of Representatives. He was Minister of Science and Technology and later head of the Economic Planning Agency. He is currently Chairman of the Kajima Institute of International peace. The original Japanese article was published in the May 14 edition of the Yomiuri Shimbun.
Some twenty centuries ago, the three empires - Rome, Han, and Persia- reigned side by side over the rest of the world. Today, the U.S. has no rival. For the first time in history, the world is dominated by a single nation endowed with overwhelming military power and a ubiquitous civilization of powerful appeal.
The military power of the United States is a result of enormous national efforts made ceaselessly through decades in the aftermath of bitter American experiences in Korea and Vietnam. The extraordinary performance of the U.S. military in Iraq is solidly based on some of the most advanced scientific and technical achievements of the day. The war itself has been shortened to the limit, bringing the whole action closer to a "clean" surgical operation which succeeds in eliminating solely the nerve center of the adversary.
On the other hand, the United States has succeeded in building up an efficient capability of monitoring, worldwide, research and development of higher military technology in other countries. For quite sometime, there is little likelihood of any other country becoming capable of opposing frontally the U.S. military power.
The firm establishment of American military hegemony over the rest of the world has transformed the foundations on which international society has been in existence since the birth of modern nation-states system.
1) The United Nations will have virtually lost its independent authority as the guarantor of security in international society.
One of the most salient characters of the U.N. is that small nations are always in the majority there. When big powers were in opposition among them and when their respective military power stood in rough balance, the U.N. could and did have its own role to play. (the case of the Korean War)
However, once a superpower succeeds, solo, in militarily dominating the world and, consequently, there is no longer any rival force against it, then the U.N.'s role will necessarily be a limited one.
In the case of the Iraq operation, the U.S. did not ask the Security Council for an additional approval of its armed action. From now on, cases will become frequent where an action of the Security Council will not be sought for even in face of serious international security problems.
2) The U.S. will ask nations to coordinate with the U.S. their international security policy including their policy against terrorism.
3) There will be cases where the U.S. will ask nations to agree to disclose the extent of their research and development in sensitive military technology such as relates to nuclear, chemical and bio-chemical weapons, ballistic missiles and anti-ballistic missiles. (Such requests may be made to North Korea, Iran, and Syria but might also be made to China and Russia as well.)
4) The on-going process of globalization in world economy will be accelerated and states will have less power and authority to control the economy nationally.
5) There will gradually emerge concentric zones in the world corresponding to the degree of political as well as economic association of nations with the U.S.
As Americans become more aware of the overwhelming military might of their nation, America and Americans will change. The American government will also change and will tend to see itself as something closer to the de facto world government. Its actions will no longer be the same as before.
For Japan, one of the countries which have considered it important to coordinate their major policy decisions with those of the U.S., it has never been easy to exert influence, even to a small degree, on the U.S. policy decision-making. There has been only the time-honored "diplomatic channel" at their disposal.
It would be increasingly important for nations to have numerous and more intimate means of expressing their views and positions to U.S. leaders about major policy decisions of international bearing before the U.S. firmly makes up her stand on them.
The establishment of new mechanisms involving the legislative branches of the nations will have become necessary. Studies of recent history of various European organs created in the process of European Integration will be of help.
The Cold War, which turned out to be not an altogether difficult period for Japan, is now definitively at an end. In this age of vast change in the world situation, a nation's foreign policy will have to be carefully studied, but also boldly and swiftly executed. They say that errors in domestic policy can be corrected but errors in foreign affairs cannot be mended. It is expected that not only the members of the government but also leaders of different political parties take care not to make an error of judgment in the foreign policy decisions at this important juncture.
The writer is a former diplomat and was, for long, member of the House of Representatives. He was Minister of Science and Technology and later head of the Economic Planning Agency. He is currently Chairman of the Kajima Institute of International peace. The original Japanese article was published in the May 14 edition of the Yomiuri Shimbun.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
変わる米に新たな対応を
平泉 渉 / 鹿島平和研究所会長
2003年 6月 6日
重大な事態が起こった時、同時代人が必ずそのことに気付くとは限らない。しかし今回のアメリカのイラク作戦が文字通り、時代を画する重大な意義を持つことを全世界の人は感じとっている。かつてのローマ、漢、ペルシャは同時代に鼎立していたが、今日のアメリカにならぴ立つ国はない。圧倒的な軍事力と浸透力の強い文明とを併せ備える、史上空前の単一覇権国である。今回改めて確認されたその軍事力の質の高さは、人々に深甚な印象を与えた。
それは、朝鮮、ベトナムの苦い経験に学びつつ、遇去数十年にわたって休みなく続けられた、国をあげての巨大な努力の成果であり、高度の科学技術に裏付けられている。その水準は到底他国の追随を許さず、実戦においては、短期間に相手国の神経中枢のみを切除する「クリーン」な形態に近づきつつある。アメリカは他面、全世界にわたる高度の情報収集能力を築き上げ、他国の軍事上の研究開発の徹底的な監視も怠らない。当面、世界にアメリカの軍事力に正面から対抗できる力が出現する司能性はない。このような宇宙規模での軍事的覇権の確立は、近代国民国家の成立以来の国際杜会の基盤そのものを根本的に変化させた。
・国際の安全保障機構としての国連は事実上その独立の機能を失った。国連は本来世界の中小国家が多数を制する組織であることに特色があり、大国が互いに対立し、その間の軍事力がある程度拮抗している時には一定の存在感がある(朝鮮戦争)。しかしひとたび今回のように単一の大国の軍事力が圧倒的に突出し、対抗勢力がない場合にはその役割は急速に失われる。今回アメリカはその行動について安保理の新たな承認は求めなかった。今後は重要事項でも安保理の審議には付されないケースが増えるであろう。
・アメリカは各国の安全保障政策が自国の安全保障政策(対テロ対策を含む)と一般的に整合することを求めよう。ことに核・生物・化学兵器、弾道ミサイル、迎撃ミサイルなどの中核的な軍事技術の開発については、その全面的な開示を要求することになろう。(「刀狩り」の対象は北朝鮮とイラク、イラン、シリアだけでなく、中国、ロシア、ドイツ等も合まれうる)
・アメリカは全世界にわたって貿易、資本、さらにひろく企業活動全般の完全な自由化を一層推進し、世界市場の一体化は拡大し、深化する。以上の各点をめぐり、アメリカと各国との間の協調度の様々な濃淡に応じて幾つかのゾーン(地帯)が発生するであろう。一方、アメリカ人が自国の圧倒的な軍事力に自覚を深めるなかで、必然的にアメリカ自身も変わっていく。アメリカ政府にも、自らを世界政府に近いものと考える傾向が生まれ、その行動も従来とは異なってくる司能性が大きい。
我が国のようにアメリカとの協調度の高い国にとっても、現状では古来の外交チャンネル以外にはアメリカの政策決定のプロセスに参加する手段はない。今後は米国の立場が固まる前に、各国がその立場を十分主張できることがますます重要になる。相互の立法府も合めて従来の外交とは異なる新しい協議の機構が必要となろう。アメリカを中心とした相互接触の密度は従前とは桁違いなものになる。欧州統合の過程での欧州議会の設置や政府間のマラソン協議などが参考になる。いずれにせよ、これらは歴史に先例の無い重大な展開であって、全く新しい対応が求められる。
我が国にとって比較的気楽な時代だった冷戦時代は、名実ともに完全に終了した。内政と異なり、外政上の過誤は修復できない。政府はもとより、各政党の首脳部は百年の判断を誤ることなく、入念かつ果断な外交活動を展開するよう期待したい。
（筆者は元外交官、元衆議院議員、経済企画庁長官等を歴任。本稿は５月１４日の読売新聞からの転載である）
それは、朝鮮、ベトナムの苦い経験に学びつつ、遇去数十年にわたって休みなく続けられた、国をあげての巨大な努力の成果であり、高度の科学技術に裏付けられている。その水準は到底他国の追随を許さず、実戦においては、短期間に相手国の神経中枢のみを切除する「クリーン」な形態に近づきつつある。アメリカは他面、全世界にわたる高度の情報収集能力を築き上げ、他国の軍事上の研究開発の徹底的な監視も怠らない。当面、世界にアメリカの軍事力に正面から対抗できる力が出現する司能性はない。このような宇宙規模での軍事的覇権の確立は、近代国民国家の成立以来の国際杜会の基盤そのものを根本的に変化させた。
・国際の安全保障機構としての国連は事実上その独立の機能を失った。国連は本来世界の中小国家が多数を制する組織であることに特色があり、大国が互いに対立し、その間の軍事力がある程度拮抗している時には一定の存在感がある(朝鮮戦争)。しかしひとたび今回のように単一の大国の軍事力が圧倒的に突出し、対抗勢力がない場合にはその役割は急速に失われる。今回アメリカはその行動について安保理の新たな承認は求めなかった。今後は重要事項でも安保理の審議には付されないケースが増えるであろう。
・アメリカは各国の安全保障政策が自国の安全保障政策(対テロ対策を含む)と一般的に整合することを求めよう。ことに核・生物・化学兵器、弾道ミサイル、迎撃ミサイルなどの中核的な軍事技術の開発については、その全面的な開示を要求することになろう。(「刀狩り」の対象は北朝鮮とイラク、イラン、シリアだけでなく、中国、ロシア、ドイツ等も合まれうる)
・アメリカは全世界にわたって貿易、資本、さらにひろく企業活動全般の完全な自由化を一層推進し、世界市場の一体化は拡大し、深化する。以上の各点をめぐり、アメリカと各国との間の協調度の様々な濃淡に応じて幾つかのゾーン(地帯)が発生するであろう。一方、アメリカ人が自国の圧倒的な軍事力に自覚を深めるなかで、必然的にアメリカ自身も変わっていく。アメリカ政府にも、自らを世界政府に近いものと考える傾向が生まれ、その行動も従来とは異なってくる司能性が大きい。
我が国のようにアメリカとの協調度の高い国にとっても、現状では古来の外交チャンネル以外にはアメリカの政策決定のプロセスに参加する手段はない。今後は米国の立場が固まる前に、各国がその立場を十分主張できることがますます重要になる。相互の立法府も合めて従来の外交とは異なる新しい協議の機構が必要となろう。アメリカを中心とした相互接触の密度は従前とは桁違いなものになる。欧州統合の過程での欧州議会の設置や政府間のマラソン協議などが参考になる。いずれにせよ、これらは歴史に先例の無い重大な展開であって、全く新しい対応が求められる。
我が国にとって比較的気楽な時代だった冷戦時代は、名実ともに完全に終了した。内政と異なり、外政上の過誤は修復できない。政府はもとより、各政党の首脳部は百年の判断を誤ることなく、入念かつ果断な外交活動を展開するよう期待したい。
（筆者は元外交官、元衆議院議員、経済企画庁長官等を歴任。本稿は５月１４日の読売新聞からの転載である）
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟