Japan Must Take Every Precaution Against North Korea
AKIYAMA Masahiro / Chairman, Ship and Ocean Foundation
June 17, 2003
The feelings of most Japanese people regarding North Korea's development of nuclear weapons and other actions can probably be summed up as follows: While determined that North Korea must be thwarted in its efforts to develop nuclear arms and realizing that, to achieve this, Japan must rely to some extent on American power, they do not think the answer lies in using military force without a United Nations resolution, as happened in Iraq, and believe instead that the problem should be resolved through dialogue in cooperation with China and other countries. They believe Japan should pursue a complete resolution to the twin issues of abductions of Japanese nationals by North Korea and its nuclear development, will not accept any result in which only the nuclear issue is resolved, and do not support the idea of Japan arming itself with nuclear weapons to deal with North Korea.
But is this stance realistic? Leaving aside the question of whether North Korea's political system is good or bad, what is clear is that the regime led by Kim Jong-il is willing to devise and carry out any act to ensure its own survival. Whether Pyongyang has the capability to actually use nuclear weapons is unclear, but I believe it has developed them. And, considering its security situation, it is likely to take further steps to develop and acquire such weapons. Yet however urgent the goal of thwarting North Korea's nuclear ambitions may be, Japan has no means to achieve this objective.
Washington's top priority is now to prevent the proliferation of the nuclear weapons Pyongyang has already developed. And the international pressure so widely advocated is unlikely to have much effect on North Korea, which has no countries to depend on. The "sunshine policy" pursued by former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung achieved little, and similar efforts will surely meet a similar fate. In Aesop's Fables the gentleness of the sun defeated the power of the north wind, but unless a harsh "north wind" stance is adopted, North Korea will not accept U.S., Japanese, and South Korean demands that it abandon its nuclear program.
The most important task for Japan is to work with its ally the United States to swiftly formulate an effective joint defense plan for protecting Japan; the plan must be based on an awareness that North Korea possesses weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear arms and missiles. Some people counter that it is impossible to protect against missiles and that, in any case, a nuclear attack would spell the end of everything. What we can do, however, is to draw up a joint Japan-U.S. defense plan designed to minimize the damage in the event of an attack by Pyongyang and including the formulation of a missile defense system. The projection of U.S. power will, of course, be one of the factors to consider in formulating the plan. But Japan must also take concrete steps to beef up the system by which the Self-Defense Forces and others defend the nation. Clearly, these will be exclusively defense-oriented steps aimed at blunting North Korea's brinkmanship; they will not be based on the U.S. government's recently announced doctrine of preemptive strikes.
Harsh criticism continues to be directed both at North Korea's abduction of Japanese citizens and at the failure of Japanese diplomacy to resolve this issue. But one important point we must not overlook is that at the time when the abductions occurred, Japan had not put in place any defense systems to genuinely protect the lives of its citizens. We must reflect seriously on this failure.
The administration of U.S. President George W. Bush has redrawn U.S. policy toward North Korea, and this was a major factor in bringing to fruition Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro's visit to Pyongyang. This shows that as Japan undertakes the process of normalizing its diplomatic relations with North Korea, including resolving the abduction issue, it cannot afford to stray too far from America's strategy. It is therefore vital that Japan conduct a strategic dialogue on the abduction issue with the United States.
Taking every precaution against the North Korean threat and coordinating its stance thoroughly with the United States will enable Japan to cope with any eventuality. Only then will the path to a peaceful settlement open up.
The writer is Chairman of the Ship and Ocean Foundation and a former Administrative Vice-Minister at the Defense Agency.
But is this stance realistic? Leaving aside the question of whether North Korea's political system is good or bad, what is clear is that the regime led by Kim Jong-il is willing to devise and carry out any act to ensure its own survival. Whether Pyongyang has the capability to actually use nuclear weapons is unclear, but I believe it has developed them. And, considering its security situation, it is likely to take further steps to develop and acquire such weapons. Yet however urgent the goal of thwarting North Korea's nuclear ambitions may be, Japan has no means to achieve this objective.
Washington's top priority is now to prevent the proliferation of the nuclear weapons Pyongyang has already developed. And the international pressure so widely advocated is unlikely to have much effect on North Korea, which has no countries to depend on. The "sunshine policy" pursued by former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung achieved little, and similar efforts will surely meet a similar fate. In Aesop's Fables the gentleness of the sun defeated the power of the north wind, but unless a harsh "north wind" stance is adopted, North Korea will not accept U.S., Japanese, and South Korean demands that it abandon its nuclear program.
The most important task for Japan is to work with its ally the United States to swiftly formulate an effective joint defense plan for protecting Japan; the plan must be based on an awareness that North Korea possesses weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear arms and missiles. Some people counter that it is impossible to protect against missiles and that, in any case, a nuclear attack would spell the end of everything. What we can do, however, is to draw up a joint Japan-U.S. defense plan designed to minimize the damage in the event of an attack by Pyongyang and including the formulation of a missile defense system. The projection of U.S. power will, of course, be one of the factors to consider in formulating the plan. But Japan must also take concrete steps to beef up the system by which the Self-Defense Forces and others defend the nation. Clearly, these will be exclusively defense-oriented steps aimed at blunting North Korea's brinkmanship; they will not be based on the U.S. government's recently announced doctrine of preemptive strikes.
Harsh criticism continues to be directed both at North Korea's abduction of Japanese citizens and at the failure of Japanese diplomacy to resolve this issue. But one important point we must not overlook is that at the time when the abductions occurred, Japan had not put in place any defense systems to genuinely protect the lives of its citizens. We must reflect seriously on this failure.
The administration of U.S. President George W. Bush has redrawn U.S. policy toward North Korea, and this was a major factor in bringing to fruition Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro's visit to Pyongyang. This shows that as Japan undertakes the process of normalizing its diplomatic relations with North Korea, including resolving the abduction issue, it cannot afford to stray too far from America's strategy. It is therefore vital that Japan conduct a strategic dialogue on the abduction issue with the United States.
Taking every precaution against the North Korean threat and coordinating its stance thoroughly with the United States will enable Japan to cope with any eventuality. Only then will the path to a peaceful settlement open up.
The writer is Chairman of the Ship and Ocean Foundation and a former Administrative Vice-Minister at the Defense Agency.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
北朝鮮への備えを万全に
秋山昌廣 / シップ・アンド・オーシャン財団会長
2003年 6月 17日
北朝鮮の核兵器開発などの動向について、多数の日本人は以下のように考えているだろう。「まず核兵器開発は絶対阻止すべきだ、そして、そのためには米国の力を借りなければならない、しかし対イラクのように国連決議なき武力行使はすべきではなく、中国などの協力も得て話し合いで解決すべきだ。また、日本としては、核開発問題と合わせ拉致事件についても完全解決を追求する。核開発問題のみ解決という結果は受け入れられない。この問題の関連で、我が国が核武装すべきだという考えには与しない。」
しかし、このような考えは、現実的であろうか。北朝鮮の体制の善し悪しは横に置くとして、金正日統治体制側はその存続のためあらゆることを考え、実行しようとしている。実際に使用できるものかどうかは不明だが、核兵器は開発済みと私は考える。そして、北朝鮮は、自国の安全保障の観点から、さらに、開発・保有する方向に進んでいくだろう。このような時点で、核兵器開発絶対阻止と言ってみたところで、日本にはそれを実現する手段がない。米国は、開発済み核兵器の拡散防止に比重が移っている。国際的圧力などといっても、頼るところのない北朝鮮には効果はない。金大中大統領の進めた太陽政策はほとんど成功しなかったし、今後も成功しないだろう。北風政策が取れないとすれば、北朝鮮が米・日・韓からの核廃棄要請を受け入れない。
今、日本にとって最も大事なことは、北朝鮮が核・ミサイルを含む大量破壊兵器保有国であるということを認識した上で、同盟関係にある米国と我が国による日本防衛のための実効ある共同防衛計画を早急に策定することである。ミサイルは守れない、核攻撃を受けたら全て終わりだ、という反論があるが、ミサイル防衛態勢構築の決定を含め、北からの万が一の攻撃に対し、被害を最小にする日米共同防衛計画は立案し得る。その際、米国のパワープロジェクションはもちろん大きな考慮対象要素だ。自衛隊などによる自国防衛態勢も本格的に具体化させなければならない。これは日米共同専守防衛態勢であり、先制攻撃ドクトリンに基づくものではない。北朝鮮の瀬戸際政策を無力化しようとするものである。実は拉致事件では、今もっぱら北の仕業と日本外交への手厳しい批判が続いているが、見落としてならない重要なことは、拉致事件が発生した当時、日本自体が国民の生命身体を本気で守る防衛体制を作っていなかったということである。我々は、このことをまず猛省しなければならない。
また、小泉訪朝の実現は、実は米国ブッシュ政権の対北政策の見直しが大きく作用している。だとすれば、拉致問題を含め日朝関係正常化のプロセスは、米国の戦略と大きく離れることなく進めなければならない。ということは、今後、本問題に関する米国との戦略対話が極めて重要となる。
まずは北朝鮮への備えを万全にし、その上で米国との意思疎通を徹底することによって、あらゆる状況に対応可能となり、結果として初めて平和的解決の道が見えてくる。
（筆者はシップ・アンド・オーシャン財団会長、元防衛事務次官。）
しかし、このような考えは、現実的であろうか。北朝鮮の体制の善し悪しは横に置くとして、金正日統治体制側はその存続のためあらゆることを考え、実行しようとしている。実際に使用できるものかどうかは不明だが、核兵器は開発済みと私は考える。そして、北朝鮮は、自国の安全保障の観点から、さらに、開発・保有する方向に進んでいくだろう。このような時点で、核兵器開発絶対阻止と言ってみたところで、日本にはそれを実現する手段がない。米国は、開発済み核兵器の拡散防止に比重が移っている。国際的圧力などといっても、頼るところのない北朝鮮には効果はない。金大中大統領の進めた太陽政策はほとんど成功しなかったし、今後も成功しないだろう。北風政策が取れないとすれば、北朝鮮が米・日・韓からの核廃棄要請を受け入れない。
今、日本にとって最も大事なことは、北朝鮮が核・ミサイルを含む大量破壊兵器保有国であるということを認識した上で、同盟関係にある米国と我が国による日本防衛のための実効ある共同防衛計画を早急に策定することである。ミサイルは守れない、核攻撃を受けたら全て終わりだ、という反論があるが、ミサイル防衛態勢構築の決定を含め、北からの万が一の攻撃に対し、被害を最小にする日米共同防衛計画は立案し得る。その際、米国のパワープロジェクションはもちろん大きな考慮対象要素だ。自衛隊などによる自国防衛態勢も本格的に具体化させなければならない。これは日米共同専守防衛態勢であり、先制攻撃ドクトリンに基づくものではない。北朝鮮の瀬戸際政策を無力化しようとするものである。実は拉致事件では、今もっぱら北の仕業と日本外交への手厳しい批判が続いているが、見落としてならない重要なことは、拉致事件が発生した当時、日本自体が国民の生命身体を本気で守る防衛体制を作っていなかったということである。我々は、このことをまず猛省しなければならない。
また、小泉訪朝の実現は、実は米国ブッシュ政権の対北政策の見直しが大きく作用している。だとすれば、拉致問題を含め日朝関係正常化のプロセスは、米国の戦略と大きく離れることなく進めなければならない。ということは、今後、本問題に関する米国との戦略対話が極めて重要となる。
まずは北朝鮮への備えを万全にし、その上で米国との意思疎通を徹底することによって、あらゆる状況に対応可能となり、結果として初めて平和的解決の道が見えてくる。
（筆者はシップ・アンド・オーシャン財団会長、元防衛事務次官。）
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟