The Reelection of George Bush and its Impact on Japan-U.S. Relations
MATSUYAMA Yukio / Journalist
January 17, 2005
Ever since "Kennedy versus Nixon," I have followed each U.S. presidential election with keen interest as a journalist -- in Tokyo, Washington, D.C., New York and at Harvard University. And I have never been left with such dark forebodings in the wake of a U.S. election as this time around. The country seems to have set off in a direction that differs from the America I have become fond of. Former Prime Minister Miyazawa Kiichi, "U.S. expert extraordinaire" of Japanese politics, has likewise lamented that "America is becoming a different country from the one I used to know."
Except for the small number of anti-American activists on the ultra-left and ultra-right, the vast majority of Japanese feel a sense of affinity towards America. Even for those Japanese who may object to U.S. conduct on issues such as the military bases or trade friction, when it comes to basic values America is by far the most favorable of all countries. Apart from a sense of indebtedness towards America for its support over the postwar period and consideration for the effectiveness of the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty, Japan's fondness for America also lies in the perception that America is a country characterized by its "generosity" and "tolerance."
However, numerous surveys indicate that in the latest presidential election, "ethical values" -- specifically with respect to issues such as abortion and same-sex marriages -- had a greater impact on American voters than policy issues such as the Iraq War or the economy. Needless to say, America has placed great value on religion and ethics since its founding days. But now for the first time, views on religion and ethics are beginning to influence the outcome of elections with a force that is somewhat frightening.
I was left with the impression that as a result of Bush's reelection, America has been transformed from a society with ample capacity that allows its members to "agree to disagree" into a society without any such capacity that draws a line between friend and foe in open confrontation. The Bush administration draws its support from a powerful base comprising fundamentalist religious organizations that fail to recognize the theory of evolution and conservative political groups that seem to entertain no interest in such ideas as "international cooperation." This has caused concern among many pro-American foreigners that America has become an "intolerant," "introverted" country. Today, as globalization advances and as America becomes a superpower in the role of a "bossy CEO" of the international community, these are extremely dangerous symptoms.
For Japan, the continuation of a Republican administration is not particularly against its national interests. On the contrary, there are plenty of those in government and business who hold the view that a Republican administration - with its many Japan experts - makes it easier to manage Japan-U.S. relations.
Nevertheless, longstanding pro-Americans like myself have been disturbed by the manner in which President Bush blatantly pressed on with the idea that "justice is what America decides it to be" and how he went on to neglect the United Nations, ignore the Kyoto Protocol and ultimately launched a war against Iraq over the opposition of many countries. Even after it became apparent that Iraq possessed no weapons of mass destruction, Bush has stubbornly refused to change his attitude. And now, having won the "endorsement" of the American people in the latest election, his doctrine of unilateral action and penchant for categorizing countries into friend or foe could escalate even further.
For the time being, appraisal and judgment regarding whether or not the Iraq War is going well are divided depending on the country or individual. Still, it is an undeniable fact that America's self-serving behavior has significantly damaged pro-American sentiment among many a friendly country. In Asia and in Europe, we have seen a conspicuous increase in the number of individuals who express anti-American feelings or at least of those who turn an unsympathetic eye on America. According to a survey on public perception towards America conducted by the Asahi Newspaper last October, as much as 74% of the respondents said their view of America has "deteriorated" over the past three years, and 66% said they either "dislike" or "generally dislike" President Bush. Even if America succeeded in "democratizing" Iraq, it will have been achieved at the considerable cost of losing its "fans."
To date, Japan's Prime Minister Koizumi Jun'ichiro has been forthcoming in his support for President Bush, dispatching the Self Defense Forces to Iraq by stretching the legal interpretation of the Japanese Constitution to the absolute limit. Even so, Koizumi's decision is not based on any strong conviction on his part that Iraq must be defeated, but rather on his calculation that building a relationship of trust with Washington will prove crucial for Japan in countering the North Korean threat.
In opinion polls, the Koizumi administration consistently garners support from nearly half or at times more than half of the respondents. However, such figures do not necessarily mean the Japanese people wholeheartedly approve of the Prime Minister's policies or even that they hold high expectations in the future of his administration. The lack of any favorable successor plays a significant role in the outcome of such polls. America would be making a mistake if it fails to take this background into account and thinks the majority of Japanese supports sending the Self Defense Forces to Iraq. Even within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, members including former Secretary-General Kato Koichi, former Policy Research Council Chairman Kamei Shizuka and former Secretary-General Koga Makoto have begun to advocate pulling the SDF out of Iraq. In the event that U.S. Forces end up retreating from Iraq - as was the case in the Vietnam War – or if any member of the SDF should unfortunately be killed, Japan-U.S. relations would be thrown into an extremely difficult phase.
I hope the Bush administration in its second term will heed the words of this pro-American Japanese. In other words, I hope Prime Minister Koizumi will relay the following words of caution to the U.S. President: that he should avoid becoming overconfident simply on the merit of having won the election, and should realize that cooperation with other countries is essential because there is a limit to what a single country can accomplish in the complicated world in which we live in.
The writer is Professor Emeritus of Kyoritsu Women's University and former Editorial Writer of the Asahi Shimbun newspaper.
Except for the small number of anti-American activists on the ultra-left and ultra-right, the vast majority of Japanese feel a sense of affinity towards America. Even for those Japanese who may object to U.S. conduct on issues such as the military bases or trade friction, when it comes to basic values America is by far the most favorable of all countries. Apart from a sense of indebtedness towards America for its support over the postwar period and consideration for the effectiveness of the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty, Japan's fondness for America also lies in the perception that America is a country characterized by its "generosity" and "tolerance."
However, numerous surveys indicate that in the latest presidential election, "ethical values" -- specifically with respect to issues such as abortion and same-sex marriages -- had a greater impact on American voters than policy issues such as the Iraq War or the economy. Needless to say, America has placed great value on religion and ethics since its founding days. But now for the first time, views on religion and ethics are beginning to influence the outcome of elections with a force that is somewhat frightening.
I was left with the impression that as a result of Bush's reelection, America has been transformed from a society with ample capacity that allows its members to "agree to disagree" into a society without any such capacity that draws a line between friend and foe in open confrontation. The Bush administration draws its support from a powerful base comprising fundamentalist religious organizations that fail to recognize the theory of evolution and conservative political groups that seem to entertain no interest in such ideas as "international cooperation." This has caused concern among many pro-American foreigners that America has become an "intolerant," "introverted" country. Today, as globalization advances and as America becomes a superpower in the role of a "bossy CEO" of the international community, these are extremely dangerous symptoms.
For Japan, the continuation of a Republican administration is not particularly against its national interests. On the contrary, there are plenty of those in government and business who hold the view that a Republican administration - with its many Japan experts - makes it easier to manage Japan-U.S. relations.
Nevertheless, longstanding pro-Americans like myself have been disturbed by the manner in which President Bush blatantly pressed on with the idea that "justice is what America decides it to be" and how he went on to neglect the United Nations, ignore the Kyoto Protocol and ultimately launched a war against Iraq over the opposition of many countries. Even after it became apparent that Iraq possessed no weapons of mass destruction, Bush has stubbornly refused to change his attitude. And now, having won the "endorsement" of the American people in the latest election, his doctrine of unilateral action and penchant for categorizing countries into friend or foe could escalate even further.
For the time being, appraisal and judgment regarding whether or not the Iraq War is going well are divided depending on the country or individual. Still, it is an undeniable fact that America's self-serving behavior has significantly damaged pro-American sentiment among many a friendly country. In Asia and in Europe, we have seen a conspicuous increase in the number of individuals who express anti-American feelings or at least of those who turn an unsympathetic eye on America. According to a survey on public perception towards America conducted by the Asahi Newspaper last October, as much as 74% of the respondents said their view of America has "deteriorated" over the past three years, and 66% said they either "dislike" or "generally dislike" President Bush. Even if America succeeded in "democratizing" Iraq, it will have been achieved at the considerable cost of losing its "fans."
To date, Japan's Prime Minister Koizumi Jun'ichiro has been forthcoming in his support for President Bush, dispatching the Self Defense Forces to Iraq by stretching the legal interpretation of the Japanese Constitution to the absolute limit. Even so, Koizumi's decision is not based on any strong conviction on his part that Iraq must be defeated, but rather on his calculation that building a relationship of trust with Washington will prove crucial for Japan in countering the North Korean threat.
In opinion polls, the Koizumi administration consistently garners support from nearly half or at times more than half of the respondents. However, such figures do not necessarily mean the Japanese people wholeheartedly approve of the Prime Minister's policies or even that they hold high expectations in the future of his administration. The lack of any favorable successor plays a significant role in the outcome of such polls. America would be making a mistake if it fails to take this background into account and thinks the majority of Japanese supports sending the Self Defense Forces to Iraq. Even within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, members including former Secretary-General Kato Koichi, former Policy Research Council Chairman Kamei Shizuka and former Secretary-General Koga Makoto have begun to advocate pulling the SDF out of Iraq. In the event that U.S. Forces end up retreating from Iraq - as was the case in the Vietnam War – or if any member of the SDF should unfortunately be killed, Japan-U.S. relations would be thrown into an extremely difficult phase.
I hope the Bush administration in its second term will heed the words of this pro-American Japanese. In other words, I hope Prime Minister Koizumi will relay the following words of caution to the U.S. President: that he should avoid becoming overconfident simply on the merit of having won the election, and should realize that cooperation with other countries is essential because there is a limit to what a single country can accomplish in the complicated world in which we live in.
The writer is Professor Emeritus of Kyoritsu Women's University and former Editorial Writer of the Asahi Shimbun newspaper.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
「ブッシュ再選」と日米関係
松山幸雄 / ジャーナリスト
2005年 1月 17日
私は「ケネディ対ニクソンの対決」以来、米大統領選挙を毎回ジャーナリストとして、東京で、またワシントン、ニューヨーク、ハーバード大で、強い関心をもってカバーしてきたが、今度くらい、選挙が終わって暗い気持ちにさせられたことはない。それはアメリカが、「私の好きなアメリカ」と異なる方向に走りだしているように見えるからだ。政界きっての知米家である宮沢喜一元首相も「アメリカは、私の知っているアメリカと違う国になりつつあるようだ」と嘆いている。
ごく一部の極左、極右の反米家を除けば、日本人の圧倒的多数はアメリカに親近感を抱いているといってよい。たとえ軍事基地問題や貿易摩擦についてアメリカのやり方に反発している人でも、基本的価値観という点では、アメリカは他のいかなる国よりも好感の持てる国なのである。それは、戦後いろいろお世話になったから、とか、日米安保条約の有効性を考慮して、ということのほかに、「アメリカが包容力のある、寛容な国だ」との印象を持っているからである。
ところが今度の選挙では、「イラク戦争」や「景気」といった政策よりも、「道徳的価値観」―具体的には「妊娠中絶」や「同性結婚」の是非の方が、有権者の投票行動に大きな影響を与えた、と多くの調査が示している。言うまでもなく、アメリカは建国以来、宗教や道徳を重視してきた国ではあるが、今回のように宗教観や道徳観が、不気味ともいえるほどの迫力をもって選挙の行方を左右するようになったのは初めてのことだ。
「ブッシュ再選」の結果、アメリカ全体が、agree to disagree（意見の不一致を認め合う）という「余裕ある社会」から、「敵か味方か」と対立をむきだしにする「余裕のない杜会」になった印象である。海外の親米家の多くも、進化論を認めないような原理主義的な宗教団体、「国際協調」といったことにはまるで関心を持たないような保守的な政治勢力が、ブッシュ政権の強力な支持基盤になっているのを見て、「アメリカは非寛容な、内向きの国」になった、との不安を抱いている。世界のグローバル化が進みつつあるとき、またアメリカが「国際杜会のワンマン社長」といった巨大国家になりつつあるとき、これはたいへん危険な兆候といわねばならない。
日本にとって、共和党政権の継続自体は、別に国益に反するわけではない。むしろ知日派を多く抱えた共和党政権の方が、日米関係はやりやすい、と見るものが、政府や財界にはたくさんいる。
しかし、私を含め多くの古い親米家が憂鬱になっているのは、ブッシュ大統領が「アメリカが正義と考えるものが正義なのだ」との考え方を露骨に押し出し、国連を軽視し、京都議定書を無視し、ついには多くの国の反対を振り切ってイラク戦争開始に踏み切った点だ。大量破壊兵器がイラクに存在しないことが分かっても、頑なに態度を変えようとしない。彼のこうした「一国行動主義」「敵味方分類症候群」は、今度の選挙で「国民の信託を得た」ことにより、ますます強まるのでないか。
目下のところイラク戦争がうまくいっているかどうかについての評価、判断は、国により、人によりそれぞれ分れているが、少なくともアメリカの独善的なやりかたが、多くの友好国の対米感情をかなり損ねているのは、否定しがたい事実だ。アジアにもヨーロッパにも、「アメリカ嫌い」、少なくともアメリカを冷ややかな目で見る人がこのところ目立って増えている。10月の朝日新聞の対米意識調査では、この3年間でアメリカに対する見方が「悪くなった」74%、ブッシュ大統領を「嫌い」「どちらかといえば嫌い」66%に上っている。たとえ「イラクの民主化」に成功したとしても、「アメリカ・ファンの減少」という損失は大きい。
小泉首相は、目下のところブッシュ大統領のイラク戦争を強力に支持し、憲法を最大限拡張解釈して、自衛隊を現地に派遣している。しかしこれは、心の底から「イラク討つべし」と信じているから、というよりも、「北朝鮮の脅威に対抗するにはワシントンとの信頼関係が不可欠」と計算したからにすぎない、とみるべきであろう。
世論調査では、「小泉政権支持」がいつも半数近く、あるいは半数以上ある。しかしこれは、国民が小泉首相の政策を評価し、将来に期待を寄せているからではなく、小泉氏の後継者が見当たらないからという要素が大きい。アメリカがそういう事情を理解せずに、「日本人の多数が白衛隊のイラク派遣を支持している」とみたら間違いだ。自民党の中でさえ、加藤元幹事長、亀井元政調会長、古賀元幹事長らが「白衛隊は引き上げるべきだ」と主張し始めた。もしもべトナム戦争の時のように、イラクから米軍が撤退するようなことになったとき、あるいは不幸にして自衛隊員に犠牲者が出たようなとき、日米関係はたいへん難しい局面を迎えることになろう。
日本の親米家として、2期目のブッシュ政権に期待したいのは―言い換えると小泉首相にブッシュ大統領に忠告してほしいのは―「選挙に勝ったからといって決して自信過剰に陥らないよう」、また「この複雑な国際杜会では、一国単独行動でなしうることには隈界があり、各国との強調が何より不可欠だと自覚してほしい」ということである。
（筆者は共立女子大名誉教授。元朝日新聞論説主幹。）
ごく一部の極左、極右の反米家を除けば、日本人の圧倒的多数はアメリカに親近感を抱いているといってよい。たとえ軍事基地問題や貿易摩擦についてアメリカのやり方に反発している人でも、基本的価値観という点では、アメリカは他のいかなる国よりも好感の持てる国なのである。それは、戦後いろいろお世話になったから、とか、日米安保条約の有効性を考慮して、ということのほかに、「アメリカが包容力のある、寛容な国だ」との印象を持っているからである。
ところが今度の選挙では、「イラク戦争」や「景気」といった政策よりも、「道徳的価値観」―具体的には「妊娠中絶」や「同性結婚」の是非の方が、有権者の投票行動に大きな影響を与えた、と多くの調査が示している。言うまでもなく、アメリカは建国以来、宗教や道徳を重視してきた国ではあるが、今回のように宗教観や道徳観が、不気味ともいえるほどの迫力をもって選挙の行方を左右するようになったのは初めてのことだ。
「ブッシュ再選」の結果、アメリカ全体が、agree to disagree（意見の不一致を認め合う）という「余裕ある社会」から、「敵か味方か」と対立をむきだしにする「余裕のない杜会」になった印象である。海外の親米家の多くも、進化論を認めないような原理主義的な宗教団体、「国際協調」といったことにはまるで関心を持たないような保守的な政治勢力が、ブッシュ政権の強力な支持基盤になっているのを見て、「アメリカは非寛容な、内向きの国」になった、との不安を抱いている。世界のグローバル化が進みつつあるとき、またアメリカが「国際杜会のワンマン社長」といった巨大国家になりつつあるとき、これはたいへん危険な兆候といわねばならない。
日本にとって、共和党政権の継続自体は、別に国益に反するわけではない。むしろ知日派を多く抱えた共和党政権の方が、日米関係はやりやすい、と見るものが、政府や財界にはたくさんいる。
しかし、私を含め多くの古い親米家が憂鬱になっているのは、ブッシュ大統領が「アメリカが正義と考えるものが正義なのだ」との考え方を露骨に押し出し、国連を軽視し、京都議定書を無視し、ついには多くの国の反対を振り切ってイラク戦争開始に踏み切った点だ。大量破壊兵器がイラクに存在しないことが分かっても、頑なに態度を変えようとしない。彼のこうした「一国行動主義」「敵味方分類症候群」は、今度の選挙で「国民の信託を得た」ことにより、ますます強まるのでないか。
目下のところイラク戦争がうまくいっているかどうかについての評価、判断は、国により、人によりそれぞれ分れているが、少なくともアメリカの独善的なやりかたが、多くの友好国の対米感情をかなり損ねているのは、否定しがたい事実だ。アジアにもヨーロッパにも、「アメリカ嫌い」、少なくともアメリカを冷ややかな目で見る人がこのところ目立って増えている。10月の朝日新聞の対米意識調査では、この3年間でアメリカに対する見方が「悪くなった」74%、ブッシュ大統領を「嫌い」「どちらかといえば嫌い」66%に上っている。たとえ「イラクの民主化」に成功したとしても、「アメリカ・ファンの減少」という損失は大きい。
小泉首相は、目下のところブッシュ大統領のイラク戦争を強力に支持し、憲法を最大限拡張解釈して、自衛隊を現地に派遣している。しかしこれは、心の底から「イラク討つべし」と信じているから、というよりも、「北朝鮮の脅威に対抗するにはワシントンとの信頼関係が不可欠」と計算したからにすぎない、とみるべきであろう。
世論調査では、「小泉政権支持」がいつも半数近く、あるいは半数以上ある。しかしこれは、国民が小泉首相の政策を評価し、将来に期待を寄せているからではなく、小泉氏の後継者が見当たらないからという要素が大きい。アメリカがそういう事情を理解せずに、「日本人の多数が白衛隊のイラク派遣を支持している」とみたら間違いだ。自民党の中でさえ、加藤元幹事長、亀井元政調会長、古賀元幹事長らが「白衛隊は引き上げるべきだ」と主張し始めた。もしもべトナム戦争の時のように、イラクから米軍が撤退するようなことになったとき、あるいは不幸にして自衛隊員に犠牲者が出たようなとき、日米関係はたいへん難しい局面を迎えることになろう。
日本の親米家として、2期目のブッシュ政権に期待したいのは―言い換えると小泉首相にブッシュ大統領に忠告してほしいのは―「選挙に勝ったからといって決して自信過剰に陥らないよう」、また「この複雑な国際杜会では、一国単独行動でなしうることには隈界があり、各国との強調が何より不可欠だと自覚してほしい」ということである。
（筆者は共立女子大名誉教授。元朝日新聞論説主幹。）
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟