Japan's Expectations for Bush Administration
MATSUYAMA Yukio / Professor of Kyoritsu Women's University
January 12, 2001
For the Japanese, who becomes the American president sometimes matters more than who their own prime minister is; because U.S.moves on security, trade or finance have great impact on Japan's future course. In the latest presidential election, however, few people expected any dramatic change in Washington's policy line, whether the winner was George W. Bush or Al Gore. It appears that the Japanese are watching the coming-on-stage of the new U.S. administration with relative calm.
It may be a matter of concern, if any, that Bush has no experience at all of handling foreign policy issues; the fact that he has made only three foreign trips symbolizes this point. Now that the Cold War is over, it is inevitable that both the American nation and the president are primarily concerned about domestic issues. But there are still many flash points in the world that could require the American intervention. In Asia, nobody knows if and when conflicts break out in the Taiwan Strait or the Korean Peninsula. Washington's response to them would be of vital importance to the nations of the region.
Bush himself seems to be fully aware that he is weak at diplomacy. He has given major cabinet posts to veterans well versed in international affairs, such as Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of State Colin Powell and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. This represents his effort to get rid of the impression that his administration is inward-looking.
In Congress, fortunately or unfortunately, the Republicans and the Democrats are nearly equal in their number of seats both in the Senate and the House of Representatives. This is expected to leave the new President with no choice but to conduct bipartisan diplomacy. He has failed to win a majority in the national election. This drawback will make it hardly possible for him to have it all his own way in diplomacy.
Compared with Bill Clinton who tried somehow to bring out China and North Korea into international society, however, Bush is likely to assume a rather severe stance toward the Communist countries at least in the initial period. Especially, the new administration conspicuously includes enthusiastic advocates of a national missile defense (NMD) system. Should he put on a bold front in this aspect soon after taking office, it could cause unrest or adverse reaction not only from Russia and China but also among free nations including Japan.
Bush has been saying that he attaches great importance to the U.S. relations with Japan, which has led many Japanese politicians and businessmen to expect a better time ahead than under the Clinton administration. But the "great importance" does not necessarily mean "indulgence" toward Japan. It would rather lead to an expectation for a more solid Japan-U.S. relations with Japan as a reliable partner of the United States. Japan could come under stronger pressure on the issues of military bases and deregulations than under the Clinton administration.
Japan and the United States hold in common the basic values of liberalism and capitalism. But there are big differences in their historical and cultural backgrounds, and national characters. The more intimate the two nations become, the greater the potential for friction will tend to be. In that case the new U.S. ambassador to Japan will play a critical role. An appointee to the post must be a person who is trusted by the President, understands well Japan's idiosyncrasies, and is not high-handed in personality. This may be the most important task for the new Bush administration for the moment.
The writer is a professor of international relations at Kyoritsu Women's University. He previously served as the Asahi Shimbun's General American Bureau Chief and Chairman of Editorial Board.
It may be a matter of concern, if any, that Bush has no experience at all of handling foreign policy issues; the fact that he has made only three foreign trips symbolizes this point. Now that the Cold War is over, it is inevitable that both the American nation and the president are primarily concerned about domestic issues. But there are still many flash points in the world that could require the American intervention. In Asia, nobody knows if and when conflicts break out in the Taiwan Strait or the Korean Peninsula. Washington's response to them would be of vital importance to the nations of the region.
Bush himself seems to be fully aware that he is weak at diplomacy. He has given major cabinet posts to veterans well versed in international affairs, such as Vice President Dick Cheney, Secretary of State Colin Powell and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. This represents his effort to get rid of the impression that his administration is inward-looking.
In Congress, fortunately or unfortunately, the Republicans and the Democrats are nearly equal in their number of seats both in the Senate and the House of Representatives. This is expected to leave the new President with no choice but to conduct bipartisan diplomacy. He has failed to win a majority in the national election. This drawback will make it hardly possible for him to have it all his own way in diplomacy.
Compared with Bill Clinton who tried somehow to bring out China and North Korea into international society, however, Bush is likely to assume a rather severe stance toward the Communist countries at least in the initial period. Especially, the new administration conspicuously includes enthusiastic advocates of a national missile defense (NMD) system. Should he put on a bold front in this aspect soon after taking office, it could cause unrest or adverse reaction not only from Russia and China but also among free nations including Japan.
Bush has been saying that he attaches great importance to the U.S. relations with Japan, which has led many Japanese politicians and businessmen to expect a better time ahead than under the Clinton administration. But the "great importance" does not necessarily mean "indulgence" toward Japan. It would rather lead to an expectation for a more solid Japan-U.S. relations with Japan as a reliable partner of the United States. Japan could come under stronger pressure on the issues of military bases and deregulations than under the Clinton administration.
Japan and the United States hold in common the basic values of liberalism and capitalism. But there are big differences in their historical and cultural backgrounds, and national characters. The more intimate the two nations become, the greater the potential for friction will tend to be. In that case the new U.S. ambassador to Japan will play a critical role. An appointee to the post must be a person who is trusted by the President, understands well Japan's idiosyncrasies, and is not high-handed in personality. This may be the most important task for the new Bush administration for the moment.
The writer is a professor of international relations at Kyoritsu Women's University. He previously served as the Asahi Shimbun's General American Bureau Chief and Chairman of Editorial Board.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
ブッシュ政権に期待すること
松山 幸雄 / 共立女子大学教授（国際関係論）
2001年 1月 12日
日本人にとって、米国の大統領がだれであるかは、時として日本の首相がだれであるあるか以上に大きな意味を持つ。何故ならば、安全保障問題にせよ、貿易・金融問題にせよ、米国がどう出るかは、日本の進路に大きな影響を与えるからだ。ただ、今回の大統領選挙では、ブッシュ、ゴアのどちらが勝っても、ワシントンの路線に劇的な変化が起こると予想する人はほとんどいなかった。日本人は比較的冷静に、新政権の登場を見守っている、といってよいようだ。
心配があるとすれば、何よりも、外遊経験3回だけ、ということで象徴されるように、外交問題に全く未経験である、という点。東西冷戦が終わり、米国民も大統領も主たる関心を内政に向けられているのはやむをえないことではあるが、世界にはまだまだ米国の出動を促すような緊張要因がたくさん存在している。アジアでも、台湾海峡や朝鮮半島でいつ紛争が起こるかわからない。そのさいホワイトハウスがどう対応するかは、各国にとって死活的大問題である。
ブッシュ氏も「外交に弱い」との自覚は十分持っているようで、チェイニー副大統領、パウエル国務、ラムズフェルド国防両長官、といった国際問題に強いベテランを主要閣僚に配置することで、「内向き政権」との印象を消すことに努めている。
幸か不幸か、議会は上下両院とも共和、民主両党の議席が伯仲しており、大統領は超党派外交で行かざるをえないと予想される。国民投票で過半数をとれなかった、という負い目からも、外交面での「独走」は不可能のはず。
ただ、中国や北朝鮮をなんとか国際社会に引き出そうとしたクリントン政権に比べると、ブッシュ氏は共産圏に対し、少なくとも当面はかなり厳しい姿勢をとる公算が大きい。とくに新政権には米本土防衛ミサイル計画（NMD）に熱心な顔触れが目立つので、もしこの面で大統領が就任早々力んだりすると、ロシア、中国だけでなく、日本を含む自由諸国の間にも同様、反発が出る可能性がある。
ブッシュ氏は「日米関係重視」を口にしているので、政財界にはクリントン時代よりよくなるだとう、と期待する向きが多い。しかし「重視」するということは必ずしも「日本を甘やかす」ことを意味しない。むしろ「米国のパートナーとして、もう一歩踏み込んだ関係になってほしい」との要求になって出てくるだろう。基地の問題にしても規制緩和の問題にしても、圧力はクリントン時代より高まるに違いない。
日米両国は自由主義、資本主義、という基本的価値観を共有しているとはいっても、歴史的文化的背景、国民的気質には大きな違いがあるので、親しくなればなるほど摩擦が強まりがちだ。その場合、新駐日米大使の役割が非常に大きなものとなる。大統領の信任が厚く、かつ日本の特殊性をよく理解し、さらに人柄として高圧的でない人物を任命すること‐‐これがブッシュ新政権の当面の最重要課題であろう。
（筆者は共立女子大学教授（国際関係論）。元朝日新聞アメリカ総局長、論説主幹。）
心配があるとすれば、何よりも、外遊経験3回だけ、ということで象徴されるように、外交問題に全く未経験である、という点。東西冷戦が終わり、米国民も大統領も主たる関心を内政に向けられているのはやむをえないことではあるが、世界にはまだまだ米国の出動を促すような緊張要因がたくさん存在している。アジアでも、台湾海峡や朝鮮半島でいつ紛争が起こるかわからない。そのさいホワイトハウスがどう対応するかは、各国にとって死活的大問題である。
ブッシュ氏も「外交に弱い」との自覚は十分持っているようで、チェイニー副大統領、パウエル国務、ラムズフェルド国防両長官、といった国際問題に強いベテランを主要閣僚に配置することで、「内向き政権」との印象を消すことに努めている。
幸か不幸か、議会は上下両院とも共和、民主両党の議席が伯仲しており、大統領は超党派外交で行かざるをえないと予想される。国民投票で過半数をとれなかった、という負い目からも、外交面での「独走」は不可能のはず。
ただ、中国や北朝鮮をなんとか国際社会に引き出そうとしたクリントン政権に比べると、ブッシュ氏は共産圏に対し、少なくとも当面はかなり厳しい姿勢をとる公算が大きい。とくに新政権には米本土防衛ミサイル計画（NMD）に熱心な顔触れが目立つので、もしこの面で大統領が就任早々力んだりすると、ロシア、中国だけでなく、日本を含む自由諸国の間にも同様、反発が出る可能性がある。
ブッシュ氏は「日米関係重視」を口にしているので、政財界にはクリントン時代よりよくなるだとう、と期待する向きが多い。しかし「重視」するということは必ずしも「日本を甘やかす」ことを意味しない。むしろ「米国のパートナーとして、もう一歩踏み込んだ関係になってほしい」との要求になって出てくるだろう。基地の問題にしても規制緩和の問題にしても、圧力はクリントン時代より高まるに違いない。
日米両国は自由主義、資本主義、という基本的価値観を共有しているとはいっても、歴史的文化的背景、国民的気質には大きな違いがあるので、親しくなればなるほど摩擦が強まりがちだ。その場合、新駐日米大使の役割が非常に大きなものとなる。大統領の信任が厚く、かつ日本の特殊性をよく理解し、さらに人柄として高圧的でない人物を任命すること‐‐これがブッシュ新政権の当面の最重要課題であろう。
（筆者は共立女子大学教授（国際関係論）。元朝日新聞アメリカ総局長、論説主幹。）
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟