Japan's Weakening Security
ANDO Kenji / Ex-businessman
March 4, 2008
The comparative decline of late of the U.S. power seems to have weakened the security of Japan, which has been entirely dependent on the U.S. Sixteen years ago the Soviet Union, one of the then two superpowers, unexpectedly collapsed in December 1991, allowing the U.S. effortlessly to become the peerless single superpower. With this lucky windfall, the U.S. became even more confident that it could move the world as it liked without worrying about the UN. Proudly casting itself as the "guardian of the world", the U.S. believed that its own notion of justice and values such as freedom, human rights and democracy should also be applied everywhere.
Then ten years later in September 2001 several U.S. targets were suddenly attacked simultaneously by Al Qaeda. President Bush, his own imprudent judgment spurred on by the strong recommendation from the so-called "Neo-con" advocates like Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld and Paul Wolfowitz, waged war on Iraq. But with no legitimate cause for the war itself and insufficient game plan after the initial successful attacks, the situation in Iraq subsequently became chaotic and intractable what with die-hard Iraqi resistance and with bloody Muslim sectarian conflicts. The U. S. now is deeply mired in a war in which it is unable to move either forward or backward, contrary to the original "hit-and-run" scenario. Frankly it has been annoying for the allies and friends of the U.S. to be asked to join a war over which the U.S. has lost control.
The U.S. later urged its allies and friendly countries to join or support the "war on terrorism", in the face of rampant terrorism and disturbances associated with the presidential elections in Pakistan and the persistent fighting with the Taliban in Afghanistan. These are closely related to the Iraqi War and Japan's participation in these military activities is questionable, given Japan's Constitution. In this connection, It was futile for Japan to have wasted such a long time in the Diet deliberating the issue of refueling warships of allies in the Indian Ocean. The national opinion in Japan has deeply been divided on this peripheral foreign issue, thus distracting the Diet's attention from more important domestic issues. I, for one, have been against the Japanese refueling mission.
In the Middle East there are the issues of never-ending Israel/Palestine conflicts, the suspicion of Iran's nuclear development, the Lebanon tinderbox and battles involving Turkey and the Kurds in northern Iraq. The U.S. has been involved in every issue but cannot solve any of them, which clearly shows that American leadership has been weakened. Anti-American groups may think the U.S. is not as fearsome as before. The U. S. committed a gigantic blunder in history in having jumped into the war in Iraq believing it could win in a short time. At present, sovereignty is respected for all nations. Treading in muddy boots into another country, even if it is a small one, is not to be allowed. There is no guarantee that the cloud of suspicion on nuclear development in Iran and North Korea will ever been cleared. Frustrating as it is, it is a fact of life. Diplomatic skills of higher order are called for to deal with these counties.
In addition to the costs of maintaining its globally stationed military bases, the U.S. now incurs an enormous spending and loss of many soldiers in Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan as well as major deficits in the national budget and its overseas trade. Furthermore, the bust of financial markets is feared because of the failure of dubious sub prime loans, which endangers the free economy of which Americans have been so proud and spreads negative repercussions throughout the world. Clearly the U.S. is faced with so many imminent crucial issues. It is difficult for us, non-Americans to understand why America is so wrapped up in the nationwide ballyhoo of Presidential election campaigns, spending an amazing amount of time, money and human resources for such a long time. I would like to ask our American friends if they can really afford such a lavish extravaganza. Americans may believe that this represents a true American democracy. But for some people outside of America it may seem like a self-gratification. America's enemies may be happy to see American power wear down. Russia is growing rich due to unprecedented energy price hikes and spending its largess on beefing up its military and on renovating its infrastructures. Similarly, China is making an all-out effort to bolster its economy, military might and technology, continuing unprecedented high economic growth. Neither Russia nor China has woes like the U.S. has, nor are they obliged to give economic support to other countries as Japan does, rather excessively, in my opinion. China and Russia can use whatever power, technology and wealth they have, to maximize their national interests. Therefore, their situations are a far cry from the U.S. and Japan, and hence the balance of power is tilting in their favor. This is not a bush fire on the other side of the river that Japan can afford to overlook.
The purpose of this article is to sound a warning about the need for Japan to focus more on its own security in view of the growing military buildup in Russia and China as contrasted against the U.S. decline. What is required of Japan's administrators and government is not to be tempted by policies which may gain short-term popularity, but to engage in an rigorous and focused pursuit of Japan's national interest. In particular, foreign policy should be decided not in terms of riding on the U.S. coattails as before, but on the basis of careful and thoughtful analysis of the merits of each case from a long-range perspective.
It is a historical fact that there will often be conflicts with one's neighbors, in Japan's case Russia and China. I am under no illusion that Russia or China will support Japan. It is natural to think that Japan will continue to have a certain level of tension politically, if not economically, with both of them. There will be no country but the U.S. that Japan can trust. In order for Japan and the U.S. to remain secure, Japan should strive for a new relationship with the U. S. in which Japan is able to give straightforward but constructive proposals to our 'big' brother who, after all, does occasionally act rashly and make mistakes.
The writer worked at Itochu Corporation.
Then ten years later in September 2001 several U.S. targets were suddenly attacked simultaneously by Al Qaeda. President Bush, his own imprudent judgment spurred on by the strong recommendation from the so-called "Neo-con" advocates like Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld and Paul Wolfowitz, waged war on Iraq. But with no legitimate cause for the war itself and insufficient game plan after the initial successful attacks, the situation in Iraq subsequently became chaotic and intractable what with die-hard Iraqi resistance and with bloody Muslim sectarian conflicts. The U. S. now is deeply mired in a war in which it is unable to move either forward or backward, contrary to the original "hit-and-run" scenario. Frankly it has been annoying for the allies and friends of the U.S. to be asked to join a war over which the U.S. has lost control.
The U.S. later urged its allies and friendly countries to join or support the "war on terrorism", in the face of rampant terrorism and disturbances associated with the presidential elections in Pakistan and the persistent fighting with the Taliban in Afghanistan. These are closely related to the Iraqi War and Japan's participation in these military activities is questionable, given Japan's Constitution. In this connection, It was futile for Japan to have wasted such a long time in the Diet deliberating the issue of refueling warships of allies in the Indian Ocean. The national opinion in Japan has deeply been divided on this peripheral foreign issue, thus distracting the Diet's attention from more important domestic issues. I, for one, have been against the Japanese refueling mission.
In the Middle East there are the issues of never-ending Israel/Palestine conflicts, the suspicion of Iran's nuclear development, the Lebanon tinderbox and battles involving Turkey and the Kurds in northern Iraq. The U.S. has been involved in every issue but cannot solve any of them, which clearly shows that American leadership has been weakened. Anti-American groups may think the U.S. is not as fearsome as before. The U. S. committed a gigantic blunder in history in having jumped into the war in Iraq believing it could win in a short time. At present, sovereignty is respected for all nations. Treading in muddy boots into another country, even if it is a small one, is not to be allowed. There is no guarantee that the cloud of suspicion on nuclear development in Iran and North Korea will ever been cleared. Frustrating as it is, it is a fact of life. Diplomatic skills of higher order are called for to deal with these counties.
In addition to the costs of maintaining its globally stationed military bases, the U.S. now incurs an enormous spending and loss of many soldiers in Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan as well as major deficits in the national budget and its overseas trade. Furthermore, the bust of financial markets is feared because of the failure of dubious sub prime loans, which endangers the free economy of which Americans have been so proud and spreads negative repercussions throughout the world. Clearly the U.S. is faced with so many imminent crucial issues. It is difficult for us, non-Americans to understand why America is so wrapped up in the nationwide ballyhoo of Presidential election campaigns, spending an amazing amount of time, money and human resources for such a long time. I would like to ask our American friends if they can really afford such a lavish extravaganza. Americans may believe that this represents a true American democracy. But for some people outside of America it may seem like a self-gratification. America's enemies may be happy to see American power wear down. Russia is growing rich due to unprecedented energy price hikes and spending its largess on beefing up its military and on renovating its infrastructures. Similarly, China is making an all-out effort to bolster its economy, military might and technology, continuing unprecedented high economic growth. Neither Russia nor China has woes like the U.S. has, nor are they obliged to give economic support to other countries as Japan does, rather excessively, in my opinion. China and Russia can use whatever power, technology and wealth they have, to maximize their national interests. Therefore, their situations are a far cry from the U.S. and Japan, and hence the balance of power is tilting in their favor. This is not a bush fire on the other side of the river that Japan can afford to overlook.
The purpose of this article is to sound a warning about the need for Japan to focus more on its own security in view of the growing military buildup in Russia and China as contrasted against the U.S. decline. What is required of Japan's administrators and government is not to be tempted by policies which may gain short-term popularity, but to engage in an rigorous and focused pursuit of Japan's national interest. In particular, foreign policy should be decided not in terms of riding on the U.S. coattails as before, but on the basis of careful and thoughtful analysis of the merits of each case from a long-range perspective.
It is a historical fact that there will often be conflicts with one's neighbors, in Japan's case Russia and China. I am under no illusion that Russia or China will support Japan. It is natural to think that Japan will continue to have a certain level of tension politically, if not economically, with both of them. There will be no country but the U.S. that Japan can trust. In order for Japan and the U.S. to remain secure, Japan should strive for a new relationship with the U. S. in which Japan is able to give straightforward but constructive proposals to our 'big' brother who, after all, does occasionally act rashly and make mistakes.
The writer worked at Itochu Corporation.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
「弱体化する日本の安全保障」
安藤賢次 / 元 商社勤務
2008年 3月 4日
長らく日本の安全保障はアメリカ頼りだったから、最近のアメリカの相対的地盤沈下は日本の安全保障を脅かしている。１６年前思いもかけず二超大国の一方の雄ソ連が崩壊（１９９１年１２月）し、労せずしてアメリカは比類ない唯一の超大国となった。正に棚ぼたである。アメリカは国連をも気にせず世界を思い通りに動かせる力を得たと自信を深めた。世界の守護神を自負し、アメリカにとっての正義、価値観即ち自由、人権、民主主義がそのまま世界の正義と信じて疑わなかった。その１０年後（２００１年９月）、アメリカは晴天のへきれきの如くアルカイダによる同時多発テロ攻撃を受け、ブッシュ大統領は軽率にも、好戦的なチェイニー、ラムズフェルド、ウオルフォウイッツ等ネオコン取り巻き連の強い進言でイラクに戦争を仕掛けた。戦争を仕掛けた大義も誤りなら、緒戦での快進撃後のイラク統治政策の欠如、その後の予期せぬイラク人の頑強な反撃、宗派間の回教徒同士の血で血を洗う制御不能の大混乱で、アメリカは当初の短期決戦勝利のもくろみがはずれ、進むも地獄引くも地獄の深みにはまってしまった。自ら戦争を仕掛けておいて、自分の手に負えなくなったからといって同盟国、友好国に参戦を要請するとは迷惑千万な話しである。
その後、パキスタンでの頻発するテロ、アフガニスタンでのタリバンとの熾烈な戦いを目の当たりにして、NATO, 同盟国、友好国は叉もやアメリカから参戦あるいは支援を要請された。しかし、これらはイラク戦争に端を発したものであったり、日本の憲法上参加が疑問視される戦争である。インド洋上で同盟国艦船へ燃料補給することの是非で、日本の国政がかくも長期にわたりもめたのは理屈に合わない。国内の大問題で政府、野党が激論を戦わしたならまだしも、他国の艦船への燃料補給は大義としてあいまいだ。故に自分は本件には当初から反対だった。中東では、終わりの見えないイスラエル・パレスチナ問題、イランの核開発疑惑、レバノンの火種、トルコと北部イラク内クルド人との抗争などが目白押しで、そのどれにもアメリカは首を突っ込んでいながら何も解決し得ない。これはアメリカの指導力低下のなにものでもない。対抗勢力はアメリカ恐るるに足らずの意を強めていると思う。簡単に制圧できると思ってイラク戦争に突っ走ったアメリカは歴史上致命的な汚点を残した。今や如何なる国も主権が尊重され、たとえ小国に対しても他国がずかずかと土足で踏み込むことはできない。もどかしくはあるがこれが現実なのだ。北朝鮮やイランの核開発が白日のもとに解明される保証はない。故に、彼等との交渉には高度な戦略的外交が求められる。
全世界に張りめぐらした軍事基地維持に加え、今やアメリカはイラク、パキスタン、アフガニスタンで多大の戦費、兵員を消耗し、国内では膨大な財政赤字、貿易赤字を重ねている。更にはお得意のはずの自由経済でも、リスクの高いサブプライムローンの破綻で金融市場は暴落し、その害悪を世界中にばらまいている。これら全てがアメリカの国力と威信を損なっている。そんな問題山積の最中、莫大な時間と金と人的資源を投入して物入りの大統領選を全国展開しているアメリカに対し、そんなぜいたくなお祭りを楽しんでいる余裕があるのかと問いたい。彼等はこれぞ理想の民主主義と信じているのだろうが、外から見れば単なる自己満足だ。対抗勢力はその分アメリカの国力が消耗することを喜んでいよう。一方でロシアは未曾有のエネルギー価格高騰で国庫は膨らみ続け、その多くを着々と軍事力増強、国内のインフラ整備に振り向けている。同様に中国は、これも未曾有の経済発展を背景に、経済力、軍事力、技術力増強に大車輪だ。両国ともアメリカが抱えるイラクの如き重石は無いし、私見ながら、日本のように他国に過度ともいえる経済援助もしていないから、持てる力、技術、富を思う存分国力増強に当てている。この違いは大きく、アメリカとの力の差はどんどん縮まってきている。日本はこれを対岸の火事と見過ごしてはならない。
本論は、ロシア、中国の軍備増強とは対照的なアメリカの地盤沈下を鑑みるに、日本は自国の安全保障にもっと注意を払うべきと警告を発するのが目的である。日本の為政者、政府は常に国益を基本に据え、一時的な国民の人気取り政策に汲々とすべきでない。特に外交においては日本の国益をしっかりと見据え、冷静な現状分析、長期的展望の視点から、従来の単純な米国追従から抜け出し、是々非々の判断が望まれる。隣国とはとかく紛争が起きることは歴史上の事実である。その意味でロシアと中国は日本の隣国だ。両国が究極的に日本を助けてくれたり、後ろ盾になってくれるとは思えないし、彼等にすり寄るのは間違いだ。彼等とは経済的にはともかく、政治的には将来にわたって一定の緊張状態は続こう。故に、日本が頼るべきは今後ともアメリカ以外にあるとは思えない。日米の安全保障が万全であるためには、日本は両国間の新たな関係構築に努め、時に暴走し判断誤りもする“兄貴分”アメリカに対しても、建設的な直言が言えるような関係でありたい。
（筆者は元伊藤忠商事勤務。）
その後、パキスタンでの頻発するテロ、アフガニスタンでのタリバンとの熾烈な戦いを目の当たりにして、NATO, 同盟国、友好国は叉もやアメリカから参戦あるいは支援を要請された。しかし、これらはイラク戦争に端を発したものであったり、日本の憲法上参加が疑問視される戦争である。インド洋上で同盟国艦船へ燃料補給することの是非で、日本の国政がかくも長期にわたりもめたのは理屈に合わない。国内の大問題で政府、野党が激論を戦わしたならまだしも、他国の艦船への燃料補給は大義としてあいまいだ。故に自分は本件には当初から反対だった。中東では、終わりの見えないイスラエル・パレスチナ問題、イランの核開発疑惑、レバノンの火種、トルコと北部イラク内クルド人との抗争などが目白押しで、そのどれにもアメリカは首を突っ込んでいながら何も解決し得ない。これはアメリカの指導力低下のなにものでもない。対抗勢力はアメリカ恐るるに足らずの意を強めていると思う。簡単に制圧できると思ってイラク戦争に突っ走ったアメリカは歴史上致命的な汚点を残した。今や如何なる国も主権が尊重され、たとえ小国に対しても他国がずかずかと土足で踏み込むことはできない。もどかしくはあるがこれが現実なのだ。北朝鮮やイランの核開発が白日のもとに解明される保証はない。故に、彼等との交渉には高度な戦略的外交が求められる。
全世界に張りめぐらした軍事基地維持に加え、今やアメリカはイラク、パキスタン、アフガニスタンで多大の戦費、兵員を消耗し、国内では膨大な財政赤字、貿易赤字を重ねている。更にはお得意のはずの自由経済でも、リスクの高いサブプライムローンの破綻で金融市場は暴落し、その害悪を世界中にばらまいている。これら全てがアメリカの国力と威信を損なっている。そんな問題山積の最中、莫大な時間と金と人的資源を投入して物入りの大統領選を全国展開しているアメリカに対し、そんなぜいたくなお祭りを楽しんでいる余裕があるのかと問いたい。彼等はこれぞ理想の民主主義と信じているのだろうが、外から見れば単なる自己満足だ。対抗勢力はその分アメリカの国力が消耗することを喜んでいよう。一方でロシアは未曾有のエネルギー価格高騰で国庫は膨らみ続け、その多くを着々と軍事力増強、国内のインフラ整備に振り向けている。同様に中国は、これも未曾有の経済発展を背景に、経済力、軍事力、技術力増強に大車輪だ。両国ともアメリカが抱えるイラクの如き重石は無いし、私見ながら、日本のように他国に過度ともいえる経済援助もしていないから、持てる力、技術、富を思う存分国力増強に当てている。この違いは大きく、アメリカとの力の差はどんどん縮まってきている。日本はこれを対岸の火事と見過ごしてはならない。
本論は、ロシア、中国の軍備増強とは対照的なアメリカの地盤沈下を鑑みるに、日本は自国の安全保障にもっと注意を払うべきと警告を発するのが目的である。日本の為政者、政府は常に国益を基本に据え、一時的な国民の人気取り政策に汲々とすべきでない。特に外交においては日本の国益をしっかりと見据え、冷静な現状分析、長期的展望の視点から、従来の単純な米国追従から抜け出し、是々非々の判断が望まれる。隣国とはとかく紛争が起きることは歴史上の事実である。その意味でロシアと中国は日本の隣国だ。両国が究極的に日本を助けてくれたり、後ろ盾になってくれるとは思えないし、彼等にすり寄るのは間違いだ。彼等とは経済的にはともかく、政治的には将来にわたって一定の緊張状態は続こう。故に、日本が頼るべきは今後ともアメリカ以外にあるとは思えない。日米の安全保障が万全であるためには、日本は両国間の新たな関係構築に努め、時に暴走し判断誤りもする“兄貴分”アメリカに対しても、建設的な直言が言えるような関係でありたい。
（筆者は元伊藤忠商事勤務。）
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟