The Russo-Chinese Relationship as viewed from the Russian Side
MAGOSAKI Ukeru / Dean, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, National Defense Academy
April 1, 2008
I visited Russia in late March. When we were discussing the Russo-Chinese relations, a Russian man, opened the ball by saying "a symbolic affair occurred today," He said: "Today, a very interesting argument took place in the Russian Lower House. A representative from Siberia said that, "China won the tender for electric turbines in Siberia a few days ago. Recently, Chinese companies have all been successful in receiving orders for construction works related to electric power generation. If this sort of situation continues, Russian equipment industries will collapse and disappear. We should set a limit to the activities of Chinese enterprises." In response, another member of the House argued that "we have set a national goal to double the production of electricity by 2020. This objective cannot be achieved by Russian enterprises alone. To accomplish this goal, the import of Chinese goods is indispensable."
On the one hand, there is an awareness of the threat of China. On the other, each individual Russian company finds it in their interest to strengthen the relationship with China. By the same token, Russia is selling arms to China. In the long run, China's military power will pose a threat to Russia. It is only natural that there is an argument calling for caution regarding the shipment of arms to China. At the same time, the promotion and development of weaponry industries is another goal of the nation. If the export of arms to China is restricted, the arms manufacturing companies' business will be greatly disadvantaged. There are pros and cons about the export of Russian gas and oil to China, too. Some groups are insisting on caution from a long-term standpoint while other groups seeking profits in the Chinese market.
In Russia, the merits and demerits of strengthening relations with China are crossing each other. This is also shown in opinion polls. According to recent Russian opinion surveys, China ranks high both in the lists of 10 most favored countries and of 10 most disliked nations. The Chinese are loved and hated at the same time. By comparison, the Japanese are neither. From the Russian point of view, Japan is falling into a group of countries not really worth much, or of little importance. During the Russian presidential election campaign this year, Gennady Zyuganov, a presidential candidate and the leader of the Russian Communist Party, paid a visit to China. The visit purported to demonstrate that "the Russian Communist Party will adopt the Chinese economic line."
It is quite important that an agreement is being formed that "the strengthening of relations with China will favorably affect the outcome of the Russian presidential election." For Russia, China has become one of the most important countries. Andrey Ivanovich Denisov, the first Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation, is a specialist in Chinese affairs. The relationship with the United States as well as with Europe is very important for Russia. But while Russia has many important issues related to these countries, that the Russian government appointed a Chinese expert the first Deputy Foreign Minister is quite symbolic. The elements required of Russian policy for China are two-fold: one is further strengthening of mutual relations and the other is restraint in the long run. The Russian posture toward China is clearly different from that of Japan. Generally speaking, the amelioration of relations with China is, at least outwardly, positively acknowledged in Russia.
In Russia, there exists a clear-cut intention to remove future potential for conflict with China, which is certain to become one of the great powers. First and foremost, the 40-kilometer uncertain area along the boundaries that became the cause of a Russo-Chinese military confrontation in the late 1960s was completely resolved three years ago. Jokingly, it is said that troublesome islands were blown off by bombardment. Russia also made concessions. Under the American unilateral security and diplomatic policies, both Russia and China are well aware that their collaboration will work for their own mutual benefit by indirectly keeping the U.S. in check. What will this mean to Japan?
For the long-term security for Japan, the biggest problem is how to deal with the expansion of the Chinese military power. The Russo-Chinese relationship will have a grave influence on the Japanese security. The buildup of the Chinese navy and air force has been achieved more often than not by purchasing Russian weaponry. The Russo-Chinese relations, therefore, will in fact exert a considerable influence over security problems for Japan. Among Russian security authorities, of course, there are those in favor of a better Russo-Japanese relationship as a matter of logic to deal with the increasing Chinese military threat from the security point of view. But at present, there is no possibility that such an idea be taken up and developed into a real policy. Russia is looking very much to Japanese companies to supply technological information, but to the same extent as they are to other foreign enterprises. They do not consider that the partner should necessarily be Japanese.
In Japan, those who are directly engaged in Russian affairs, including the Foreign Ministry officials, say that Russia is coming to attach more and more importance to Japan recently. Certainly Russia is showing more interest in building up a better relationship with Japan, the host country of the coming summit conference. This, however, is just a temporary phenomenon. Neither the Russian government nor people have any strong intention to pay special attention to Japan. It is true that they are interested in Japan to some extent, simply because there are some sushi restaurants in Moscow. But when they are asked, "Why is there such a terrible traffic jam in Moscow," they would jokingly answer: "Well, that's because we have too many Japanese cars." This is the level of their recognition of Japan's contribution to Russia at the present time.
The author is the Dean of the School of Humanities and Social Sciences, the National Defense Academy, and former Ambassador to Iran.
On the one hand, there is an awareness of the threat of China. On the other, each individual Russian company finds it in their interest to strengthen the relationship with China. By the same token, Russia is selling arms to China. In the long run, China's military power will pose a threat to Russia. It is only natural that there is an argument calling for caution regarding the shipment of arms to China. At the same time, the promotion and development of weaponry industries is another goal of the nation. If the export of arms to China is restricted, the arms manufacturing companies' business will be greatly disadvantaged. There are pros and cons about the export of Russian gas and oil to China, too. Some groups are insisting on caution from a long-term standpoint while other groups seeking profits in the Chinese market.
In Russia, the merits and demerits of strengthening relations with China are crossing each other. This is also shown in opinion polls. According to recent Russian opinion surveys, China ranks high both in the lists of 10 most favored countries and of 10 most disliked nations. The Chinese are loved and hated at the same time. By comparison, the Japanese are neither. From the Russian point of view, Japan is falling into a group of countries not really worth much, or of little importance. During the Russian presidential election campaign this year, Gennady Zyuganov, a presidential candidate and the leader of the Russian Communist Party, paid a visit to China. The visit purported to demonstrate that "the Russian Communist Party will adopt the Chinese economic line."
It is quite important that an agreement is being formed that "the strengthening of relations with China will favorably affect the outcome of the Russian presidential election." For Russia, China has become one of the most important countries. Andrey Ivanovich Denisov, the first Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation, is a specialist in Chinese affairs. The relationship with the United States as well as with Europe is very important for Russia. But while Russia has many important issues related to these countries, that the Russian government appointed a Chinese expert the first Deputy Foreign Minister is quite symbolic. The elements required of Russian policy for China are two-fold: one is further strengthening of mutual relations and the other is restraint in the long run. The Russian posture toward China is clearly different from that of Japan. Generally speaking, the amelioration of relations with China is, at least outwardly, positively acknowledged in Russia.
In Russia, there exists a clear-cut intention to remove future potential for conflict with China, which is certain to become one of the great powers. First and foremost, the 40-kilometer uncertain area along the boundaries that became the cause of a Russo-Chinese military confrontation in the late 1960s was completely resolved three years ago. Jokingly, it is said that troublesome islands were blown off by bombardment. Russia also made concessions. Under the American unilateral security and diplomatic policies, both Russia and China are well aware that their collaboration will work for their own mutual benefit by indirectly keeping the U.S. in check. What will this mean to Japan?
For the long-term security for Japan, the biggest problem is how to deal with the expansion of the Chinese military power. The Russo-Chinese relationship will have a grave influence on the Japanese security. The buildup of the Chinese navy and air force has been achieved more often than not by purchasing Russian weaponry. The Russo-Chinese relations, therefore, will in fact exert a considerable influence over security problems for Japan. Among Russian security authorities, of course, there are those in favor of a better Russo-Japanese relationship as a matter of logic to deal with the increasing Chinese military threat from the security point of view. But at present, there is no possibility that such an idea be taken up and developed into a real policy. Russia is looking very much to Japanese companies to supply technological information, but to the same extent as they are to other foreign enterprises. They do not consider that the partner should necessarily be Japanese.
In Japan, those who are directly engaged in Russian affairs, including the Foreign Ministry officials, say that Russia is coming to attach more and more importance to Japan recently. Certainly Russia is showing more interest in building up a better relationship with Japan, the host country of the coming summit conference. This, however, is just a temporary phenomenon. Neither the Russian government nor people have any strong intention to pay special attention to Japan. It is true that they are interested in Japan to some extent, simply because there are some sushi restaurants in Moscow. But when they are asked, "Why is there such a terrible traffic jam in Moscow," they would jokingly answer: "Well, that's because we have too many Japanese cars." This is the level of their recognition of Japan's contribution to Russia at the present time.
The author is the Dean of the School of Humanities and Social Sciences, the National Defense Academy, and former Ambassador to Iran.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
ロシア側から見た中ロ関係
孫崎 享 / 防衛大学校人文社会学群長
2008年 4月 1日
３月下旬ロシアを訪問した。議論が中ロ関係になった時に、あるロシア人が「本日象徴的出来事があった」として、次のように話してくれた。「今日、ロシア下院で極めて興味深い議論が展開された。シベリア出身の議員が“数日前シベリアで電力関係用タービンの入札を中国が勝ち取った。最近シベリアでの電力関連施設の受注は全て中国企業である。こんなことをしていたら、ロシアの設備関連企業は消滅する。中国企業は制限すべきだ”と発言した。これに対して別の議員は“我が国は２０２０年までに電力生産量を２倍にするという国家目標を掲げている。ロシアの企業だけではまかなえない。目標達成には中国製品の輸入が不可欠である”と反論した。一方に中国の脅威認識がある。他方に、個々の企業などは、中国との関係強化に利益を見出している。ロシアが中国に武器を売るのも同じである。長期的にみると中国の軍事力はロシアの脅威になる。当然「武器供与は慎重であるべし」との議論が出る。他方武器産業の育成は別のロシアの国家目標である。中国に輸出しないと武器製造会社の経営が苦しい。ロシアの石油・ガスの対中輸出にも賛否両論ある。ここでも長期の脅威から慎重論を説くグループと、中国市場に利益を見出すグループがある。
ロシア国内では中国との関係強化は功罪双方が交錯している。それは世論調査でも同じである。今日ロシアの世論調査では、好きな国１０カ国のトップクラスに中国が入り、嫌いな国１０カ国のトップクラスに中国が入るという。嫌われてもいるし、好かれてもいる。ちなみに日本はどちらにも入っていない。日本はロシアからみてどうでもいいグループに入りつつある。本年のロシア大統領選挙中、大統領候補であったジュガノフ共産党が訪中した。この訪中には「ロシア共産党は中国の経済路線を採用する」ことを示す目的が入っている。「中国関係強化が大統領選挙に好影響を与える」という判断が成立することは極めて重要である。ロシアにとって中国は極めて重要な国となっている。デニソフ第一外務次官は中国問題の専門家である。対米関係、対欧州などロシアにとって重要政策が多々ある中で、第一外務次官が中国専門家であることは象徴的である。ロシアの対中政策は関係発展と長期を睨んでの抑制の２つの要素の手綱裁きが求められている。ロシアの中国姿勢は、日本の中国姿勢とは明確に異なる。しかし、総じて、対中国関係との関係改善はロシアでは表向き肯定評価が強い。
ロシアには、将来大国となる中国との間で火種は除くという意思が明確にある。先ず、１９６０年代末中ソ軍事衝突の火種となった国境は未確定部分が４０キロメートル存在していたが、３年前全てを解決した。ややこしい島は爆撃で消滅させたと冗談に言われている。ロシアの譲歩もある。米国の一極支配的安全保障政策と外交政策の中で、中国・ロシアともに中ロ連携が米国を牽制する上で自国に有利に働くとみている。
こうした情勢は日本にとって何を意味するか。
日本の長期的な安全保障においては、最大の問題は中国の軍事力強化に如何に対応するかとなろう。そして、中ロ関係の動向はこの問題に重要な影響を与える。中国の海空軍事力増強はしばしば、ロシア兵器購入によってなされる。中ロ関係の動向は実は日本の安全保障に相当の影響を与えていく。勿論、ロシアの安全保障関係者の中には論理的に対中軍事脅威に対抗するために、日ロ関係の発展が望ましいと考える者も存在しよう。しかしこうした考えが、現実の政策として考慮する段階には全くない。日本の企業をその他の外国企業と同じレベルで考え、技術提供を期待する。しかし別に日本でなければならないという気持ちはない。
日本において外務省などロシア関係に直接従事する者は、最近ロシアは日本を重視してきていますというだろう。確かにサミット主催国の日本との接触を強化したいという動きはある。しかし、これは単なる一時的要因である。ロシアの一般国民も政府にも日本を特に重視しようという空気はない。モスクワ市内に進出した寿司などで日本には関心がある。「何故、モスクワ市が麻痺する位に交通渋滞が起こったのか」と問うと「日本車が出てきたからだ」と冗談に切り替えされる位が、現時点での日本の貢献度の認識である。
（筆者は防衛大学校人文社会学群長、元駐イラン大使）
ロシア国内では中国との関係強化は功罪双方が交錯している。それは世論調査でも同じである。今日ロシアの世論調査では、好きな国１０カ国のトップクラスに中国が入り、嫌いな国１０カ国のトップクラスに中国が入るという。嫌われてもいるし、好かれてもいる。ちなみに日本はどちらにも入っていない。日本はロシアからみてどうでもいいグループに入りつつある。本年のロシア大統領選挙中、大統領候補であったジュガノフ共産党が訪中した。この訪中には「ロシア共産党は中国の経済路線を採用する」ことを示す目的が入っている。「中国関係強化が大統領選挙に好影響を与える」という判断が成立することは極めて重要である。ロシアにとって中国は極めて重要な国となっている。デニソフ第一外務次官は中国問題の専門家である。対米関係、対欧州などロシアにとって重要政策が多々ある中で、第一外務次官が中国専門家であることは象徴的である。ロシアの対中政策は関係発展と長期を睨んでの抑制の２つの要素の手綱裁きが求められている。ロシアの中国姿勢は、日本の中国姿勢とは明確に異なる。しかし、総じて、対中国関係との関係改善はロシアでは表向き肯定評価が強い。
ロシアには、将来大国となる中国との間で火種は除くという意思が明確にある。先ず、１９６０年代末中ソ軍事衝突の火種となった国境は未確定部分が４０キロメートル存在していたが、３年前全てを解決した。ややこしい島は爆撃で消滅させたと冗談に言われている。ロシアの譲歩もある。米国の一極支配的安全保障政策と外交政策の中で、中国・ロシアともに中ロ連携が米国を牽制する上で自国に有利に働くとみている。
こうした情勢は日本にとって何を意味するか。
日本の長期的な安全保障においては、最大の問題は中国の軍事力強化に如何に対応するかとなろう。そして、中ロ関係の動向はこの問題に重要な影響を与える。中国の海空軍事力増強はしばしば、ロシア兵器購入によってなされる。中ロ関係の動向は実は日本の安全保障に相当の影響を与えていく。勿論、ロシアの安全保障関係者の中には論理的に対中軍事脅威に対抗するために、日ロ関係の発展が望ましいと考える者も存在しよう。しかしこうした考えが、現実の政策として考慮する段階には全くない。日本の企業をその他の外国企業と同じレベルで考え、技術提供を期待する。しかし別に日本でなければならないという気持ちはない。
日本において外務省などロシア関係に直接従事する者は、最近ロシアは日本を重視してきていますというだろう。確かにサミット主催国の日本との接触を強化したいという動きはある。しかし、これは単なる一時的要因である。ロシアの一般国民も政府にも日本を特に重視しようという空気はない。モスクワ市内に進出した寿司などで日本には関心がある。「何故、モスクワ市が麻痺する位に交通渋滞が起こったのか」と問うと「日本車が出てきたからだ」と冗談に切り替えされる位が、現時点での日本の貢献度の認識である。
（筆者は防衛大学校人文社会学群長、元駐イラン大使）
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟