February 5, 2001

Of the two cities in the caption, the former signifies the "accord" that was reached in November 1997 between Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto and Russian President Boris Yeltsin at their summit meeting on the "Northern Territories" issue, and the latter the historic reconciliation between Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and PLO leader Yasser Arafat, known as the "Oslo Accord." While there is no direct connection between the two agreements, they share a common element in that they offered a promise, or raised strong hopes, that territorial issues would be resolved by the end of the twentieth century, only to be left unfulfilled to this day.

With little time left before the Feb. 6 prime ministerial elections -- moved up by Prime Minister Ehud Barak himself -- the Israeli government mobilized its entire camp of "doves" in negotiating with the Palestinian side at Taba, Egypt, towards the end of January, sending Justice Minister Yossi Beilin -- a central figure in promoting the Oslo Accords who had recently been left out of the mainstream in talks with the Palestinians, as well as Yossi Sarid, chairman of the left-wing Meretz Party which provides extra-Cabinet support to the government, and managed to issue a joint statement with the Palestinians, declaring the two sides have "never been closer to reaching an agreement." However, few believe that this joint statement alone would ensure a turnaround victory for Prime Minister Barak, who lags behind hardline candidate Ariel Sharon in the polls.

Reports suggest that during negotiations at Taba, the Israeli side offered to guarantee contiguity of Palestinian territory and to provide substitute land in exchange for the complete return of the Gaza Strip and the annexation of 4% of the West Bank of the River Jordan, and that major concessions were made regarding the sovereignty of the Holy Places of the City of Jerusalem as well as on the return of refugees. The proposal came very close to the principle of "international legitimacy" outlined in a series of United Nations resolutions. Alas, the timing was too late. It is a shame that six months were wasted following the Camp David summit. Why couldn't U.S. President Bill Clinton present a similar compromise solution sooner, and put all his weight into coaxing concessions out of the two parties? This, above all, is much to be regretted.

Judging from his campaign pledge, candidate Sharon is committed to resisting the removal of Jewish settlements be they in the "West Bank" or Gaza, and to protecting them. However, as the continuing conflict since September has demonstrated anew, these settlements have wedged themselves in between isolated patches of Palestinian territory and have kept them divided, and are at the heart of the clashes. His idea of containing the Palestinian people within "islands" comprising just 40% of the "West Bank" is nothing but an effort aimed at creating a "Gulag Archipelago" out of Palestine, and offers only a prescription for prolonged conflict.

Since 1973, Japan has continuously called for the return of Israeli occupied territory and for the Palestinian people's right to self-determination, meaning independence. This is not a stance fueled solely by Japan's consideration for oil-producing Arab nations. In opposing the annexation of occupied territory, it is connected to Japan's homework of getting back its "Northern Territories," and furthermore, is based on a conviction borne of Japan's own bitter past experience, that occupation and annexation ultimately lead to national ruin.

The writer is a professor of international relations at Hakuoh University. He is a former NHK Commentator on the Middle Eastern affairs.

2001年 2月 5日

標題のうち前者は、1997年11月の橋本竜太郎首相とエリツィン大統領の「北方領土」をめぐる首脳会談での「合意」を、また後者は、ラビン・イスラエル首相とアラファトPLO議長の間のあの歴史的和解、いわゆる「オスロー合意」を指す。両者の間に直接の関係はないが、領土問題を20世紀中に解決することが約束され、あるいは強い期待を集めながら、果たされなかった点が共通している。 　　

バラク首相自身の決断による首相公選の繰り上げ投票日（2月6日）を目前に、1月末エジプトのタバで行われたイスラエルとパレスチナの交渉で、イスラエル側は、オスロー合意推進の立役者でありながら、このところ対パレスチナ交渉の主流から外されていたベイリン司法相や、閣外協力している左翼政党メレツのサリド党首らハト派の総力を投入し、「これまでになく合意に近付いた」というパレスチナ側との共同声明の発表に漕ぎつけた。しかし、タカ派のシャロン候補への劣勢が続くバラク首相の逆転勝利を、この一片の共同声明がもたらすと信じる人は少ない。 　　

タバでの交渉では、ガザの全面返還、ヨルダン川西岸の４％併合と引き換えにパレスチナ領土の連続性の保証や替え地の提供などがイスラエル側から呈示され、エルサレム聖域の主権や難民帰国についても、大幅な歩み寄りがあったと伝えられる。国連の諸決議に基づく「国際的合法性」に、かなり近付いた提案であったと見ることが出来る。しかし時期が遅すぎた。キャンプ・デービッド以後の空費された６か月が悔やまれる。とりわけ、クリントン氏が、何故もっと早い時点で、同様の調停案を示し、全体重をかけて双方の妥協を導き出せなかったのかという悔恨が残る。 　　

シャロン候補は、その公約を見るかぎり、「西岸」、ガザを問わずユダヤ人入植地の解体には抵抗し、その安全を守るとしている。９月以来の騒乱でも改めて露呈されたように、飛び石状のパレスチナ自治区の間に割り込み、これを分断している入植地こそが、衝突を誘発している。「西岸」の僅か４０％の「島々」にパレスチナ人を封じ込める同候補の構想は、パレスチナの「収容所列島」化を指向する試みと言わざるを得ず、騒乱長期化の処方せんになってしまうだろう。 　　

日本政府は、１９７３年以降、イスラエルの占領地返還とパレスチナ人の民族自決権を求め続けてきた。アラブ産油国への配慮ばかりがその動機ではない。占領地の併合に反対する点でそれは、日本の「北方領土」返還への宿題にもつながり、更には、占領や併合が長期的には自国の破局を招いたという、日本自身の過去の苦い経験からたどり着いた信念に基づくものだからだ。