New Prime Minister Koizumi, Japan's Touchstone
HARA Yasushi / Professor of media communication at Toyo University
June 7, 2001
The Meiji Restoration, which signified the dawn of Japan's modernization, was not a "citizen's revolution" in the Western sense.
What defeated the Tokugawa Shogunate, whose structural fatigue from its 300-year reign was laid bare when the Black Ships arrived, was an alliance of powerful local clans such as the Satsuma, Choshu and Tosa, which had been nurturing their economic prowess in anticipation of the impending era of modernization. Tokugawa Yoshinobu - Japan's last Shogun - approached the Tosa Clan in an attempt to create a modern government by reforming the shogunate, but couldn't beat the gathering tide against existing government.
At the moment, those who are most vigorously pressuring Nagata-cho - the center of Japanese politics including the opposition - are once again local governments such as that of Tokyo led by Governor Ishihara Shintaro and prefectures such as Nagano which chose Tanaka Yasuo as its governor, Governor Asano Shiro's Miyagi, Governor Domoto Akiko's Chiba and Governor Hashimoto Daijiro's Kochi. These governors are challenging Nagata-cho and Tokyo's central government by advocating a freeze on dam construction and reclamation of shorelines, and implementing special taxes targeted at the banking sector.
Likewise, what gave birth to new prime minister Koizumi Junichiro was not Nagata-cho but members of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's local chapters, who led Koizumi to a landslide victory in the election for party leadership.
Promising to make no exceptions in pursuing structural reform in his "Koizumi Revolution," the new prime minister gave up on filing a government appeal against a ruling for former leprosy patients and declared to undertake a revision of specified allocation of government funding and the privatization of the Japan Highway Public Corporation against strong objections from both within the Liberal Democratic Party and the bureaucracy. In a reversal of the past political process where the prime minister acted upon party intentions, now the party is taking its cue from the prime minister.
The prime minister has also said in parliamentary sessions that "anyone who agrees with my policies are allies," and has held talks with Tokyo Governor Ishihara, thus looking to the opposition rather than to his own party. Circumstances surrounding Koizumi's first moves are very similar to that of Tokugawa Yoshinobu, who approached the Imperial Court in Kyoto and the Tosa Clan which had become closer to the Satsuma and Choshu clans than the shogunal administration, in an attempt to establish a modern government while maintaining the Shogunate.
Whether the prime minister really believes the Liberal Democratic Party will serve as a base for completing his reforms or will take a bold step and form an alliance with the opposition, his real intentions won't be known until the Upper House elections this summer.
Until then, the prime minister will have to rely on his support rating of over 80 percent in the public opinion polls.
However, the "Koizumi Revolution" is not a real revolution. It is only a slogan. Koizumi's comments in parliament are vocal calls for reform, a style which the prime minister excels in. Whether he will be able to take his reforms into orbit -- his abilities will come under scrutiny in the coming months.
True, Prime Minister Koizumi's opinion poll ratings are astonishingly high. But public sentiment that shows such a high level of support for a prime minister who hasn't done anything yet is abnormal in itself. Meanwhile, Koizumi has nationalist convictions such as approval of worshipping the Yasukuni Shrine and the exercise of collective self-defense as well as constitutional reform up his sleeve.
Judging from Koizumi's style evidenced in the past month, his method of appealing to public opinion may change and take a nationalistic turn depending on the outcome of his reforms. Thus in very many ways, Prime Minister Koizumi is a touchstone for today's Japan.
The writer is a professor of media communication at Toyo University. He is a former Asahi Shimbun journalist.
What defeated the Tokugawa Shogunate, whose structural fatigue from its 300-year reign was laid bare when the Black Ships arrived, was an alliance of powerful local clans such as the Satsuma, Choshu and Tosa, which had been nurturing their economic prowess in anticipation of the impending era of modernization. Tokugawa Yoshinobu - Japan's last Shogun - approached the Tosa Clan in an attempt to create a modern government by reforming the shogunate, but couldn't beat the gathering tide against existing government.
At the moment, those who are most vigorously pressuring Nagata-cho - the center of Japanese politics including the opposition - are once again local governments such as that of Tokyo led by Governor Ishihara Shintaro and prefectures such as Nagano which chose Tanaka Yasuo as its governor, Governor Asano Shiro's Miyagi, Governor Domoto Akiko's Chiba and Governor Hashimoto Daijiro's Kochi. These governors are challenging Nagata-cho and Tokyo's central government by advocating a freeze on dam construction and reclamation of shorelines, and implementing special taxes targeted at the banking sector.
Likewise, what gave birth to new prime minister Koizumi Junichiro was not Nagata-cho but members of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's local chapters, who led Koizumi to a landslide victory in the election for party leadership.
Promising to make no exceptions in pursuing structural reform in his "Koizumi Revolution," the new prime minister gave up on filing a government appeal against a ruling for former leprosy patients and declared to undertake a revision of specified allocation of government funding and the privatization of the Japan Highway Public Corporation against strong objections from both within the Liberal Democratic Party and the bureaucracy. In a reversal of the past political process where the prime minister acted upon party intentions, now the party is taking its cue from the prime minister.
The prime minister has also said in parliamentary sessions that "anyone who agrees with my policies are allies," and has held talks with Tokyo Governor Ishihara, thus looking to the opposition rather than to his own party. Circumstances surrounding Koizumi's first moves are very similar to that of Tokugawa Yoshinobu, who approached the Imperial Court in Kyoto and the Tosa Clan which had become closer to the Satsuma and Choshu clans than the shogunal administration, in an attempt to establish a modern government while maintaining the Shogunate.
Whether the prime minister really believes the Liberal Democratic Party will serve as a base for completing his reforms or will take a bold step and form an alliance with the opposition, his real intentions won't be known until the Upper House elections this summer.
Until then, the prime minister will have to rely on his support rating of over 80 percent in the public opinion polls.
However, the "Koizumi Revolution" is not a real revolution. It is only a slogan. Koizumi's comments in parliament are vocal calls for reform, a style which the prime minister excels in. Whether he will be able to take his reforms into orbit -- his abilities will come under scrutiny in the coming months.
True, Prime Minister Koizumi's opinion poll ratings are astonishingly high. But public sentiment that shows such a high level of support for a prime minister who hasn't done anything yet is abnormal in itself. Meanwhile, Koizumi has nationalist convictions such as approval of worshipping the Yasukuni Shrine and the exercise of collective self-defense as well as constitutional reform up his sleeve.
Judging from Koizumi's style evidenced in the past month, his method of appealing to public opinion may change and take a nationalistic turn depending on the outcome of his reforms. Thus in very many ways, Prime Minister Koizumi is a touchstone for today's Japan.
The writer is a professor of media communication at Toyo University. He is a former Asahi Shimbun journalist.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
日本の試金石、小泉新首相
原 康 / 東洋大学社会学部メディアコミュニケーション学科教授
2001年 6月 7日
日本近代化の夜明けとなった明治維新は西欧でいう「市民革命」ではなかった。
黒船の来航で、一挙に支配三百年の制度疲労が顕在化した徳川幕府を倒したのは、近代の到来を感じ、経済力を胎生してきた薩摩、長州、土佐などの地方雄藩の連合体だった。最後の将軍徳川慶喜は幕政改革によって近代政府を作ろうと土佐などに近づいたが、倒幕の時流には勝てなかった。
いま、永田町（与野党を含む日本の政界）を取り囲む勢いを見せているのは、石原慎太郎知事率いる東京都、田中康夫知事を選んだ長野県、浅野史郎知事の宮城県、堂本暁子知事の千葉県、橋本大二郎知事の高知県など地方の雄藩である。これら知事はダム建設や海岸埋め立ての凍結や銀行への特定課税などを掲げ、永田町、東京政府に挑戦している。
小泉純一郎新首相を誕生させたのも、永田町ではなく、自民党総裁選挙で小泉氏を圧倒的勝利に導いた自民党の各都道府県の地方党員であった。
聖域無き構造改革の実行を公約に「小泉革命」を標榜する新首相は、ハンセン病訴訟の控訴を断念、自民党内や官僚の抵抗の強い特定財源の見直し、日本道路公団の民営化などを表明した。自民党の意向を受けて首相が動いてきたこれまでの政治プロセスを逆転させ、小泉首相が動き、党がこれを追う形となっている。
また、首相は「自分の政策に賛成する人はみな味方」と国会答弁し、石原東京都知事と会談するなど、自党より野党に顔を向けている。小泉首相の初動は幕府を存立させたまま近代政府の樹立をはかった徳川慶喜が、幕閣よりも薩長寄りとなった京都の朝廷や土佐に近づいた状況によく似ている。
だから、首相は本当に自民党を基盤に改革をやり遂げられると考えているのか、野党との連携に踏み切るのか、その真意が明らかになるのは、この夏の参議院選挙後であろう。
それまで、首相の拠り所は８０％を超える世論調査の支持率である。
しかし、「小泉革命」も革命ではない。一種のスローガンである。国会での答弁は改革を声高に訴えるものであり、これは首相の得意とするスタイルである。改革を軌道に乗せることが出来るかどうか、首相の資質が問われるのはこれからである。
小泉首相にたいする世論調査の支持率は驚異的に高い。だが、まだ何もしていない新首相にこれだけの支持を与える国民感情も異常である。首相には靖国神社参拝や集団的自衛権発動容認、憲法改正など、国家主義的な信条が衣の袖からのぞいている。
ここ一ヶ月あまり、見せた小泉スタイルから推測すると、これからの改革の行方によっては、世論に訴える手法が、ナショナリスティックに世論を誘導していく形に変わらないとも限らない。小泉首相はあらゆる意味でいまの日本の試金石なのである。
( 筆者は東洋大学社会学部メディアコミュニケーション学科教授。元朝日新聞記者。)
黒船の来航で、一挙に支配三百年の制度疲労が顕在化した徳川幕府を倒したのは、近代の到来を感じ、経済力を胎生してきた薩摩、長州、土佐などの地方雄藩の連合体だった。最後の将軍徳川慶喜は幕政改革によって近代政府を作ろうと土佐などに近づいたが、倒幕の時流には勝てなかった。
いま、永田町（与野党を含む日本の政界）を取り囲む勢いを見せているのは、石原慎太郎知事率いる東京都、田中康夫知事を選んだ長野県、浅野史郎知事の宮城県、堂本暁子知事の千葉県、橋本大二郎知事の高知県など地方の雄藩である。これら知事はダム建設や海岸埋め立ての凍結や銀行への特定課税などを掲げ、永田町、東京政府に挑戦している。
小泉純一郎新首相を誕生させたのも、永田町ではなく、自民党総裁選挙で小泉氏を圧倒的勝利に導いた自民党の各都道府県の地方党員であった。
聖域無き構造改革の実行を公約に「小泉革命」を標榜する新首相は、ハンセン病訴訟の控訴を断念、自民党内や官僚の抵抗の強い特定財源の見直し、日本道路公団の民営化などを表明した。自民党の意向を受けて首相が動いてきたこれまでの政治プロセスを逆転させ、小泉首相が動き、党がこれを追う形となっている。
また、首相は「自分の政策に賛成する人はみな味方」と国会答弁し、石原東京都知事と会談するなど、自党より野党に顔を向けている。小泉首相の初動は幕府を存立させたまま近代政府の樹立をはかった徳川慶喜が、幕閣よりも薩長寄りとなった京都の朝廷や土佐に近づいた状況によく似ている。
だから、首相は本当に自民党を基盤に改革をやり遂げられると考えているのか、野党との連携に踏み切るのか、その真意が明らかになるのは、この夏の参議院選挙後であろう。
それまで、首相の拠り所は８０％を超える世論調査の支持率である。
しかし、「小泉革命」も革命ではない。一種のスローガンである。国会での答弁は改革を声高に訴えるものであり、これは首相の得意とするスタイルである。改革を軌道に乗せることが出来るかどうか、首相の資質が問われるのはこれからである。
小泉首相にたいする世論調査の支持率は驚異的に高い。だが、まだ何もしていない新首相にこれだけの支持を与える国民感情も異常である。首相には靖国神社参拝や集団的自衛権発動容認、憲法改正など、国家主義的な信条が衣の袖からのぞいている。
ここ一ヶ月あまり、見せた小泉スタイルから推測すると、これからの改革の行方によっては、世論に訴える手法が、ナショナリスティックに世論を誘導していく形に変わらないとも限らない。小泉首相はあらゆる意味でいまの日本の試金石なのである。
( 筆者は東洋大学社会学部メディアコミュニケーション学科教授。元朝日新聞記者。)
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟