Hopes for Realizing the Koizumi Doctrine
ICHIMURA Shinichi / Director, the International Center for the Study of East Asian Development
February 8, 2002
Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's speech in Singapore received considerable attention not only from the local media but also from Australian and American newspapers, which offered approval and criticism. It was not all praise. But having surveyed the reports, I rather found much of their views to be off the mark. Granted, the Prime Minister wasn't always articulate in his response during the question and answer session that followed his speech. I would therefore like to take this opportunity to review the contents of his speech together with the opinions expressed by newspapers at home and abroad, and offer my comments on the path towards the creation of an East Asian Community.
In his proposal, the Prime Minister called on leaders of ASEAN (Association of South-East Asian Nations) to begin discussions on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership while "acting together" and "advancing together" towards an East Asian Community. This Koizumi Doctrine not only retains the spirit of "equal partnership" and "heart-to-heart understanding" of the Fukuda Doctrine, but goes several steps beyond it, though it seems to have escaped most observers. The important points are as follows:
Firstly, the East Asian Community envisioned by the Prime Minister consists not only of ASEAN and Northeast Asia, but also includes Australia and New Zealand. The idea apparently met no particular objection from Malaysia's Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, though it differs from his own East Asian Economic Caucus which had been a contentious issue in the past. Australian newspapers naturally received the idea favorably. And as one of the long-time proponents of the idea as a goal of the East Asian Community myself, I was highly gratified.
Secondly, reporters showered Prime Minister Koizumi with questions that seemed to fan rivalry between Japan and China, such as why Japan wasn't making any promises when China had already proposed signing a free trade agreement with ASEAN within the next ten years. However, there is a world of a difference between a mere proposal and the actual signing of an agreement. Furthermore, Japan is already engaged in informal talks with South Korea and Thailand, though the Prime Minister refrained from mentioning it. Just one look at the joint statement on the Japan-Singapore Economic Agreement that was announced by the prime ministers of the two countries would have sufficed to give reporters an idea of the minuteness of the adjustments of interests required by a free trade agreement. The difficulties involved in a China-ASEAN Agreement are beyond imagination. Ten years strikes one as an exceedingly optimistic outlook.
Thirdly, Prime Minister Koizumi touched upon security issues. While strengthening cooperation "for the sake of stability" may have been muted in expression, he did say that in future Japan intends to actively fulfill its obligations in various "transnational" issues, as in dispatching the Self Defense Forces on Peace Keeping Operations and supporting the ASEAN Regional Forum, and most recently taking measures against terrorism and supporting Afghan reconstruction. These comments gained much attention among newspapers especially in Australia and the United States, which were quick to offer their approval. Needless to say, there will be no economic development without political stability. Sluggish development in politically unstable countries such as Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines is no better proof of this point.
The problem of piracy alone makes it clear that Japan cannot expect to take part in the creation of an Asian Community without contributing to East Asia's security. Prime Minister Koizumi received strong approval from ASEAN countries by clearly indicating that Japan will fulfill its responsibility, while positively acknowledging U.S. involvement in Asia.
Here, we must pay special attention to how China will react to such a Japanese role. Prime Minister Koizumi's comments relating to China were understandably cautious:
"I would like to highly praise the active role China is willing to play in regional cooperation. With its wealth of human resources and huge economic potential, China will surely make an enormous contribution to regional development," he said, adding that Japan and China should cooperate with each other for the development of ASEAN and the region, to build a relationship that enables ASEAN Plus 3 (Japan, China and South Korea) to work together with various countries in collaboration with ASEM (Asia-Europe Meeting), APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) and others.
On their part, ASEAN countries may expect China to provide economic benefits, but feel pressured and threatened politically. Japan will need to muster political savvy in acting as liaison and bringing about reconciliation.
Fourthly, the Prime Minister pointed out that the crux of cooperation towards ASEAN countries consists of contributing to their "nation-building," and emphasized human resources development and exchange of personnel as the foremost area. This no doubt is the international application of his conviction, which he popularized in Japan through the story of "Kome Hyappyo (100 sacks of rice)" - a historical tale about a relief package of rice that was sold to start a school instead of being distributed, teaching people to persevere today for a better tomorrow. There is nothing innovative about the idea of emphasizing education in terms of development theory. Nevertheless, he made several concrete proposals which are worthy of attention. These include: (1) utilizing the Internet to cooperate in education and human resources development; (2) designating 2003 as the Year of Japan-ASEAN Exchange; (3) holding a Japan-ASEAN Summit Meeting and using the occasion to sign a Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement and (4) holding an "Initiative for Development in East Asia" meeting.
Having said as much as the prime minister of Japan, Koizumi must not make empty promises out of them. But realizing them will be a formidable task. Japan by no means has an ample resource of individuals who can be entrusted with implementing all these enterprises. Before trying to develop human resources in ASEAN, Japan must tackle the problem of building its own. One wonders just how much the Prime Minister was aware of this fact.
The writer is Director of the International Center for the Study of East Asian Development. He contributed this comment to the Sankei Shimbun.
In his proposal, the Prime Minister called on leaders of ASEAN (Association of South-East Asian Nations) to begin discussions on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership while "acting together" and "advancing together" towards an East Asian Community. This Koizumi Doctrine not only retains the spirit of "equal partnership" and "heart-to-heart understanding" of the Fukuda Doctrine, but goes several steps beyond it, though it seems to have escaped most observers. The important points are as follows:
Firstly, the East Asian Community envisioned by the Prime Minister consists not only of ASEAN and Northeast Asia, but also includes Australia and New Zealand. The idea apparently met no particular objection from Malaysia's Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, though it differs from his own East Asian Economic Caucus which had been a contentious issue in the past. Australian newspapers naturally received the idea favorably. And as one of the long-time proponents of the idea as a goal of the East Asian Community myself, I was highly gratified.
Secondly, reporters showered Prime Minister Koizumi with questions that seemed to fan rivalry between Japan and China, such as why Japan wasn't making any promises when China had already proposed signing a free trade agreement with ASEAN within the next ten years. However, there is a world of a difference between a mere proposal and the actual signing of an agreement. Furthermore, Japan is already engaged in informal talks with South Korea and Thailand, though the Prime Minister refrained from mentioning it. Just one look at the joint statement on the Japan-Singapore Economic Agreement that was announced by the prime ministers of the two countries would have sufficed to give reporters an idea of the minuteness of the adjustments of interests required by a free trade agreement. The difficulties involved in a China-ASEAN Agreement are beyond imagination. Ten years strikes one as an exceedingly optimistic outlook.
Thirdly, Prime Minister Koizumi touched upon security issues. While strengthening cooperation "for the sake of stability" may have been muted in expression, he did say that in future Japan intends to actively fulfill its obligations in various "transnational" issues, as in dispatching the Self Defense Forces on Peace Keeping Operations and supporting the ASEAN Regional Forum, and most recently taking measures against terrorism and supporting Afghan reconstruction. These comments gained much attention among newspapers especially in Australia and the United States, which were quick to offer their approval. Needless to say, there will be no economic development without political stability. Sluggish development in politically unstable countries such as Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines is no better proof of this point.
The problem of piracy alone makes it clear that Japan cannot expect to take part in the creation of an Asian Community without contributing to East Asia's security. Prime Minister Koizumi received strong approval from ASEAN countries by clearly indicating that Japan will fulfill its responsibility, while positively acknowledging U.S. involvement in Asia.
Here, we must pay special attention to how China will react to such a Japanese role. Prime Minister Koizumi's comments relating to China were understandably cautious:
"I would like to highly praise the active role China is willing to play in regional cooperation. With its wealth of human resources and huge economic potential, China will surely make an enormous contribution to regional development," he said, adding that Japan and China should cooperate with each other for the development of ASEAN and the region, to build a relationship that enables ASEAN Plus 3 (Japan, China and South Korea) to work together with various countries in collaboration with ASEM (Asia-Europe Meeting), APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) and others.
On their part, ASEAN countries may expect China to provide economic benefits, but feel pressured and threatened politically. Japan will need to muster political savvy in acting as liaison and bringing about reconciliation.
Fourthly, the Prime Minister pointed out that the crux of cooperation towards ASEAN countries consists of contributing to their "nation-building," and emphasized human resources development and exchange of personnel as the foremost area. This no doubt is the international application of his conviction, which he popularized in Japan through the story of "Kome Hyappyo (100 sacks of rice)" - a historical tale about a relief package of rice that was sold to start a school instead of being distributed, teaching people to persevere today for a better tomorrow. There is nothing innovative about the idea of emphasizing education in terms of development theory. Nevertheless, he made several concrete proposals which are worthy of attention. These include: (1) utilizing the Internet to cooperate in education and human resources development; (2) designating 2003 as the Year of Japan-ASEAN Exchange; (3) holding a Japan-ASEAN Summit Meeting and using the occasion to sign a Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement and (4) holding an "Initiative for Development in East Asia" meeting.
Having said as much as the prime minister of Japan, Koizumi must not make empty promises out of them. But realizing them will be a formidable task. Japan by no means has an ample resource of individuals who can be entrusted with implementing all these enterprises. Before trying to develop human resources in ASEAN, Japan must tackle the problem of building its own. One wonders just how much the Prime Minister was aware of this fact.
The writer is Director of the International Center for the Study of East Asian Development. He contributed this comment to the Sankei Shimbun.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
小泉ドクトリン実現への期待 －東アジア共同体への道筋－
市村 眞一 / 国際東アジア研究センター所長
2002年 2月 8日
小泉首相のシンガポール演説は、現地のみならず豪州や米国の新聞が大いに注目して、評価と批判を加えた。それ等は礼讃ばかりではない。だが私はそれを通覧して、彼等の所見の方にこそ妥当でない点が多いと感じる。ただ演説後の質疑での首相の応答に舌足らずな点もあった。よってこの機会に演説と内外の新聞論調を評しつつ、東アジア共同体形成への道筋を論じたい。
首相がアセアン首脳に提起したのは、東アジア共同体に向かって共に歩み、共に進みつつ、包括的経済連携構想を検討する呼びかけである。この小泉構想は、二十五年前の福田ドクトリンにある対等のパートナーと心と心のふれあいという精神を継承するだけでなく、それを数歩乗越えていると思うが、多くの論評はそれに気づいていない。重要な点を指摘する。
第一、首相のいう東アジア共同体は、アセアンと東北アジアだけでなく、豪州の二国を含んでいる。これは、嘗て問題になったマハティル首相の東アジア経済圏と異なるが、彼も特に反対しなかったという。当然オーストラリアの新聞は歓迎した。東アジア共同体の目標として多年これを主張してきた者の一人として、大いに我が意を得た。
第二、記者団は、中国が既に十年以内にアセアンと自由貿易協定を結ぶことを提案したのに、日本はそういう約束はしないのかなど、日本と中国の競合をあおる質問を首相に浴びせた。しかし提案だけと実際の協定締結とでは、月とすっぽんの違いがある。その上、首相は言わなかったが、日本は既に韓国やタイと非公式な話し合いを始めている。もし記者諸君が、日本シンガポールの協定への署名に際して両首相が発表した共同声明を一見されれば、自由貿易協定がいかに細微な利害調整を要するかが判ったであろう。中国アセアン協定の難しさは想像にあまりある。十年とはあまりの楽観論である。
第三、首相は、東アジアの安全保障問題にふれた。それは「安定」のための協力の強化という柔らかい表現をとったが、ＰＫＯのための自衛隊海外派遣からアジア地域フォーラムの支持、今回のテロ対策やアフガン復興への支援に至るまで、多くの「国境を越えた」問題に対して、日本がこれから積極的に関与していくつもりだと語った。この発言には、特に豪州や米国の新聞が注目し、それを積極的に評価した。政治安定なくして経済発展のない事は言うまでもない。ミャンマー・ラオス・カンボジア・ベトナム・インドネシア・フィリピンなど政情不安国の発展の遅いことが、この何よりの証明である。
日本が、東アジアの安全保障に貢献せねば、アジア共同体の形成の一翼を担えないことは、海賊の問題一つをとっても明らかである。首相が米国のアジアへの関与を評価しつつ、日本も応分の役割を果たすと明言したことは、アセアン諸国の高い評価を得た。
ただ、日本のこうした役割について中国がどう反応するかが要注意点である。小泉首相は中国については、当然ながら極めて慎重に発言した。
「中国の大きな政治経済面での潜在力に期待をかけている国は多い。世界各地域の経済発展と政治的安定に大きく関わって行く中国の姿勢を、私は評価する。日本と中国は、アセアンや地域の発展のために互いに協力し、アセアン＋３が、ＡＳＥＭ（アセアン欧州会議）やＡＰＥＣ（アジア太平洋経済協議会）等と連携して多くの国と協力できるような関係を築きたい。」
しかしアセアン諸国は中国に経済的利益は期待するが政治的重圧と脅威を感じているのである。この仲介と融和を実現するには、日本も政治力が必要なのである。
第四に、首相は特にアセアン諸国への協力の核心は「国づくり」への貢献であるとして、その第一に、教育人材の育成と人の交流を重視された。これは日本で「米百俵」の話を引用される首相の信念の国際的応用であろうが、教育重視は開発論では特に斬新な着想ではない。ただ二、三の具体的提案が行われたのは注目に値する。 （１） インターネットによる教育と人材養成への協力、（２）二〇〇三年の日本アセアン文化交流計画、（３）日本アセアン首脳会議の開催とそこでの包括的経済提携の合意、（４）「東アジア開発イニシアティブ」会議の開催、等である。
日本の首相としてこれだけ発言した以上、これを空約束にする訳にはいかないが、この実行はたいへんである。日本にこれだけの事業をしっかり実施するための人材は決して多くはないからである。アセアンの人材養成どころか、先ずは日本の人材養成が問題である。果して首相は、それをどこまで解っておられるのだろうか。
（筆者は国際東アジア研究センター所長。この原稿は産経新聞に掲載されたものです。）
首相がアセアン首脳に提起したのは、東アジア共同体に向かって共に歩み、共に進みつつ、包括的経済連携構想を検討する呼びかけである。この小泉構想は、二十五年前の福田ドクトリンにある対等のパートナーと心と心のふれあいという精神を継承するだけでなく、それを数歩乗越えていると思うが、多くの論評はそれに気づいていない。重要な点を指摘する。
第一、首相のいう東アジア共同体は、アセアンと東北アジアだけでなく、豪州の二国を含んでいる。これは、嘗て問題になったマハティル首相の東アジア経済圏と異なるが、彼も特に反対しなかったという。当然オーストラリアの新聞は歓迎した。東アジア共同体の目標として多年これを主張してきた者の一人として、大いに我が意を得た。
第二、記者団は、中国が既に十年以内にアセアンと自由貿易協定を結ぶことを提案したのに、日本はそういう約束はしないのかなど、日本と中国の競合をあおる質問を首相に浴びせた。しかし提案だけと実際の協定締結とでは、月とすっぽんの違いがある。その上、首相は言わなかったが、日本は既に韓国やタイと非公式な話し合いを始めている。もし記者諸君が、日本シンガポールの協定への署名に際して両首相が発表した共同声明を一見されれば、自由貿易協定がいかに細微な利害調整を要するかが判ったであろう。中国アセアン協定の難しさは想像にあまりある。十年とはあまりの楽観論である。
第三、首相は、東アジアの安全保障問題にふれた。それは「安定」のための協力の強化という柔らかい表現をとったが、ＰＫＯのための自衛隊海外派遣からアジア地域フォーラムの支持、今回のテロ対策やアフガン復興への支援に至るまで、多くの「国境を越えた」問題に対して、日本がこれから積極的に関与していくつもりだと語った。この発言には、特に豪州や米国の新聞が注目し、それを積極的に評価した。政治安定なくして経済発展のない事は言うまでもない。ミャンマー・ラオス・カンボジア・ベトナム・インドネシア・フィリピンなど政情不安国の発展の遅いことが、この何よりの証明である。
日本が、東アジアの安全保障に貢献せねば、アジア共同体の形成の一翼を担えないことは、海賊の問題一つをとっても明らかである。首相が米国のアジアへの関与を評価しつつ、日本も応分の役割を果たすと明言したことは、アセアン諸国の高い評価を得た。
ただ、日本のこうした役割について中国がどう反応するかが要注意点である。小泉首相は中国については、当然ながら極めて慎重に発言した。
「中国の大きな政治経済面での潜在力に期待をかけている国は多い。世界各地域の経済発展と政治的安定に大きく関わって行く中国の姿勢を、私は評価する。日本と中国は、アセアンや地域の発展のために互いに協力し、アセアン＋３が、ＡＳＥＭ（アセアン欧州会議）やＡＰＥＣ（アジア太平洋経済協議会）等と連携して多くの国と協力できるような関係を築きたい。」
しかしアセアン諸国は中国に経済的利益は期待するが政治的重圧と脅威を感じているのである。この仲介と融和を実現するには、日本も政治力が必要なのである。
第四に、首相は特にアセアン諸国への協力の核心は「国づくり」への貢献であるとして、その第一に、教育人材の育成と人の交流を重視された。これは日本で「米百俵」の話を引用される首相の信念の国際的応用であろうが、教育重視は開発論では特に斬新な着想ではない。ただ二、三の具体的提案が行われたのは注目に値する。 （１） インターネットによる教育と人材養成への協力、（２）二〇〇三年の日本アセアン文化交流計画、（３）日本アセアン首脳会議の開催とそこでの包括的経済提携の合意、（４）「東アジア開発イニシアティブ」会議の開催、等である。
日本の首相としてこれだけ発言した以上、これを空約束にする訳にはいかないが、この実行はたいへんである。日本にこれだけの事業をしっかり実施するための人材は決して多くはないからである。アセアンの人材養成どころか、先ずは日本の人材養成が問題である。果して首相は、それをどこまで解っておられるのだろうか。
（筆者は国際東アジア研究センター所長。この原稿は産経新聞に掲載されたものです。）
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟