The Koizumi Administration
SHIMA Osamu / Professor at Teikyo University
March 4, 2002
Approval ratings of Japan's Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has taken a plunge. Confusion ensuing from the dismissal of former Foreign Minister Makiko Tanaka significantly damaged his popularity, though his approval rating of around 50% still ranks considerably higher than that of past administrations. New leaders who could replace Koizumi are nowhere to be seen, and the so-called "forces of resistance" within the Liberal Democratic Party - whose attacks reek of calculation aimed at gaining the upper hand in party politics by recapturing the initiative on budgetary and personnel matters - are in no position to attract popular sympathy. For this reason, the Prime Minister has shown no signs of conceding his views, proclaiming that his "determination for reform remains rock steady." He has been emboldened by his judgement that giving the impression of compromising with the resistance forces would do more harm to his popularity.
Even among countries with a parliamentary Cabinet system, there are differences in the way the Cabinet and the ruling party cooperate, as well as in their relative powers. If one should liken this to baseball, the United Kingdom would be a team predominated by the pitcher, which competes by placing utmost trust in its ace pitcher. In contrast, Japan places greater importance on the catcher's leads and team play among field players. Even pitchers proud of their hard ball obey the catcher's signs in delivering them, field players gather on the mound to assess the situation in a pinch, and players are frequently retired. And an incompetent pitcher isn't expected to have any say at all. Prime Minister Koizumi stepped up to the mound to induce a fundamental change to this team color.
The decisive point for the fate of the Koizumi administration will be the outcome of the race in duration, between the "period of perseverance" - how much longer the Japanese people, who characteristically demand immediate results, can endure the "pain" of reform - and the "speed of reform" pursued by the Prime Minister. The era of one-party rule by the LDP had been sustained by an escalating spell of high economic growth. Politics played the role of Santa Claus, as typified by the administration of subsidies, and political parties avoided discussing issues that were unpopular with the public. We are paying the price now, being thrown into an unavoidable period of reform. No past prime minister had said without hesitation that "the economy won't improve any time soon," or that "negative growth may be inevitable," as Koizumi has done. Faced with the bankruptcy of a general contractor, he also said it was "a sign that structural reform was proceeding en course." On one hand, I feel that Prime Minister Koizumi's appearance has indeed caused a change in public awareness, but then again, there is a persistent sense of misgiving concerning how long his popularity will last.
The Prime Minister himself has taken to citing the maxim that "in politics, darkness lies only a wink ahead." Popularity wanes quickly. Ordinary households, which had enjoyed a temporary increase in disposable income due to declining prices, have taken a direct hit from severe corporate restructuring and salary cuts since the end of last year, and concern about the future comes foremost. This is evident in the amount of responses that favor deflation fighting measures in opinion polls explaining the sudden drop in the approval ratings. Would I be assuming too much, by saying that the fracas over the dismissal of the foreign minister had merely provided a trigger for airing that frustration?
Popular opinion isn't always correct. Still, the numbers represented in the monthly polls are important for the Koizumi Cabinet, which continues to rely on popular support in managing the administration. And the only way to revive the approval ratings is to overcome deflation and accelerate the pace of reform.
The writer is a professor at Teikyo University. He is former chief editorial writer of the Yomiuri Shimbun.
Even among countries with a parliamentary Cabinet system, there are differences in the way the Cabinet and the ruling party cooperate, as well as in their relative powers. If one should liken this to baseball, the United Kingdom would be a team predominated by the pitcher, which competes by placing utmost trust in its ace pitcher. In contrast, Japan places greater importance on the catcher's leads and team play among field players. Even pitchers proud of their hard ball obey the catcher's signs in delivering them, field players gather on the mound to assess the situation in a pinch, and players are frequently retired. And an incompetent pitcher isn't expected to have any say at all. Prime Minister Koizumi stepped up to the mound to induce a fundamental change to this team color.
The decisive point for the fate of the Koizumi administration will be the outcome of the race in duration, between the "period of perseverance" - how much longer the Japanese people, who characteristically demand immediate results, can endure the "pain" of reform - and the "speed of reform" pursued by the Prime Minister. The era of one-party rule by the LDP had been sustained by an escalating spell of high economic growth. Politics played the role of Santa Claus, as typified by the administration of subsidies, and political parties avoided discussing issues that were unpopular with the public. We are paying the price now, being thrown into an unavoidable period of reform. No past prime minister had said without hesitation that "the economy won't improve any time soon," or that "negative growth may be inevitable," as Koizumi has done. Faced with the bankruptcy of a general contractor, he also said it was "a sign that structural reform was proceeding en course." On one hand, I feel that Prime Minister Koizumi's appearance has indeed caused a change in public awareness, but then again, there is a persistent sense of misgiving concerning how long his popularity will last.
The Prime Minister himself has taken to citing the maxim that "in politics, darkness lies only a wink ahead." Popularity wanes quickly. Ordinary households, which had enjoyed a temporary increase in disposable income due to declining prices, have taken a direct hit from severe corporate restructuring and salary cuts since the end of last year, and concern about the future comes foremost. This is evident in the amount of responses that favor deflation fighting measures in opinion polls explaining the sudden drop in the approval ratings. Would I be assuming too much, by saying that the fracas over the dismissal of the foreign minister had merely provided a trigger for airing that frustration?
Popular opinion isn't always correct. Still, the numbers represented in the monthly polls are important for the Koizumi Cabinet, which continues to rely on popular support in managing the administration. And the only way to revive the approval ratings is to overcome deflation and accelerate the pace of reform.
The writer is a professor at Teikyo University. He is former chief editorial writer of the Yomiuri Shimbun.
The English-Speaking Union of Japan
小泉政権
島 脩 / 帝京大学教授
2002年 3月 4日
小泉内閣の支持率が急落した。田中真紀子前外相の更迭をめぐる混乱が大きなダメージとなったが、それでもなお五〇％前後という支持率は、歴代内閣に比べると相当高い。小泉首相に代わる新しい政治リーダーが見当たらず、抵抗勢力の攻撃にも予算や人事の面で主導権を取り戻そうという政争がらみの思惑が透けて見え、国民の共感を広げうる状況ではない。だから首相は、「改革の決意は揺るがない」と自説を譲ろうとする気配はまったくない。党内の抵抗勢力と妥協した印象を与えるほうがむしろ人気下降に結びつく、という判断が首相を強気にさせている。
同じ議院内閣制の国でも、内閣と与党の協力の仕方や力関係には違いが見られる。野球に例えれば、英国はエース投手に全幅の信頼を置いて戦いを進める投手優位のチーム。対照的に日本は捕手のリードや野手の連携プレイを重視する。投手は球威に自信があっても捕手のサイン通りに投げ込み、ピンチになるとマウンドに野手が集まって協議、選手の交代も頻繁に行われる。非力のエースだと全く当事者能力は期待できない。こうしたチームカラーを根本的に変えようと登板したのが小泉首相といってよいだろう。
小泉政権の存亡を決定づけるポイントは「性急な成果」を求める国民性が"痛み"にいつまで耐えうるかという「我慢の期間」と、首相が進める「改革のスピード」との時間の競争ではないかと私は考えている。自民党一党支配の時代は、右肩上がりの高度経済成長に支えられていた。補助金行政に代表されるように、政治はサンタクロース的な役割を担い、国民に不人気な政策は各党とも論じようとはしなかった。そのツケが溜まって、いま否応なしに改革の時代を迎えている。「景気は当分よくならない」「マイナス成長もやむなし」などと平然と語る首相はこれまではいなかった。ゼネコンが倒産した時、「構造改革が順調に推移している表れだ」とも言った。小泉首相の登場で国民意識も変わってきたなと感じる一方で、この人気が果たしていつまで続くかという危惧の念は依然ぬぐえないものがある。
「政治は一寸先が闇」という格言が、首相自身の口から聞かれるようになった。人気はうつろいやすい。物価の値下がりで一時期可処分所得が増えたかに思われた家計も、昨年末以降の厳しいリストラ、賃下げの嵐に直撃されて、先行きの不安を第一に考えるようになった。支持率急落の世論調査で、デフレ対策を指摘する回答が多かったことからもそんな様子が読み取れる。外相更迭劇は、そうしたフラストレーション発散の起爆剤になったという見方はうがちすぎだろうか。
人気は常に正しいとは思わない。しかし、人気頼みの政権運営を続ける小泉内閣にとって、毎月の世論調査の数字は重要だ。支持率回復には、デフレを克服し、改革のスピードを速める以外にない。
（筆者は帝京大学教授。元読売新聞論説委員長。）
同じ議院内閣制の国でも、内閣と与党の協力の仕方や力関係には違いが見られる。野球に例えれば、英国はエース投手に全幅の信頼を置いて戦いを進める投手優位のチーム。対照的に日本は捕手のリードや野手の連携プレイを重視する。投手は球威に自信があっても捕手のサイン通りに投げ込み、ピンチになるとマウンドに野手が集まって協議、選手の交代も頻繁に行われる。非力のエースだと全く当事者能力は期待できない。こうしたチームカラーを根本的に変えようと登板したのが小泉首相といってよいだろう。
小泉政権の存亡を決定づけるポイントは「性急な成果」を求める国民性が"痛み"にいつまで耐えうるかという「我慢の期間」と、首相が進める「改革のスピード」との時間の競争ではないかと私は考えている。自民党一党支配の時代は、右肩上がりの高度経済成長に支えられていた。補助金行政に代表されるように、政治はサンタクロース的な役割を担い、国民に不人気な政策は各党とも論じようとはしなかった。そのツケが溜まって、いま否応なしに改革の時代を迎えている。「景気は当分よくならない」「マイナス成長もやむなし」などと平然と語る首相はこれまではいなかった。ゼネコンが倒産した時、「構造改革が順調に推移している表れだ」とも言った。小泉首相の登場で国民意識も変わってきたなと感じる一方で、この人気が果たしていつまで続くかという危惧の念は依然ぬぐえないものがある。
「政治は一寸先が闇」という格言が、首相自身の口から聞かれるようになった。人気はうつろいやすい。物価の値下がりで一時期可処分所得が増えたかに思われた家計も、昨年末以降の厳しいリストラ、賃下げの嵐に直撃されて、先行きの不安を第一に考えるようになった。支持率急落の世論調査で、デフレ対策を指摘する回答が多かったことからもそんな様子が読み取れる。外相更迭劇は、そうしたフラストレーション発散の起爆剤になったという見方はうがちすぎだろうか。
人気は常に正しいとは思わない。しかし、人気頼みの政権運営を続ける小泉内閣にとって、毎月の世論調査の数字は重要だ。支持率回復には、デフレを克服し、改革のスピードを速める以外にない。
（筆者は帝京大学教授。元読売新聞論説委員長。）
一般社団法人 日本英語交流連盟